Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
At this stage we can be confident in which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough and we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Christian McCaffrey). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
Surely the Jets will attempt to shorten the game and limit their pass offense exposure by leaning on their running backs, namely Breece Hall. This is a tall order for Hall -- not only might he be a little tired after a 32-touch game last Sunday, but the Browns run defense is among the toughest. That includes through the air as they don't miss a lot of tackles and have let up just 19 completions of 10-plus yards (four of 20-plus) over 60 grabs to RBs. That's pretty good. If he's stifled, the Browns won't have to stick to their recent pass-heavy ways with Joe Flacco.
- STARTS: David Njoku, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson (low-end WR2), both DSTs
- SITS: Joe Flacco (QB2), Jerome Ford (RB3), Kareem Hunt (RB3), Tyler Conklin, Trevor Siemian
- SLEEPERS: Elijah Moore (WR3)
Dallas has tried hard to stick with the run with an over 40% rush rate in three of its past four games (abandoned early at Buffalo in Week 14). If the Cowboys stick with it too long this week it'll cost them. Detroit's run defense since its Week 9 bye has been stellar (3.2 yards per carry and top-10 in explosive runs allowed), especially since it had to overcome losing big D-tackle Alim McNeill. Besides, the Lions pass defense has been rough all year including last week when Nick Mullens threw for over 400 yards and two touchdowns despite multiple turnovers. This is a big-time get-right spot for Dak Prescott.
- STARTS: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Tony Pollard (low-end RB2), Jake Ferguson, Jared Goff (fringe QB1)
- SITS: David Montgomery (borderline RB2 in non-PPR), Jameson Williams, both DSTs
- SLEEPER: Brandin Cooks (boom/bust flex)
Sit Him in PPR (Lineup Decision)
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Assume the Dolphins will do two things: try to get the ball to their running backs in space via edge runs and passing, and have Tua Tagovailoa throw quickly. They've done the latter all season long and especially lately because of their offensive line woes, but the former makes a lot of sense too. Baltimore is seeing a version of this Kyle Shanahan run scheme for the second week in a row and third time in four games (Rams in Week 14, 49ers on Monday). John Harbaugh's crew allowed at least 3.2 yards after contact per run to each of those prior West-Coast style rivals, particularly on edge runs. The Dolphins rank first in the league in yards after contact per rush (3.45); even in their past two games with all of their offensive line issues, they've been at a respectable 2.46. And here's a weird wrinkle: De'Von Achane has been among the league's best on edge runs this year (6.7 yards per carry on the year; 5.6 yards per carry in his past three).
- STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane (RB2), Zay Flowers (borderline WR2/3), Isaiah Likely, Ravens DST
- SITS: Tua Tagovailoa, Odell Beckham, Justice Hill, Dolphins DST
- SLEEPER: Gus Edwards (RB3)
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Buffalo's new-found dedication to running the ball (52.4% run rate in its past five) might get tested here as the Patriots run defense has been among the toughest to crack this season. No further example is needed than New England giving up 2.5 yards per carry to enemy RBs over its past four games with one rushing touchdown and an incredibly low 2.7% explosive rush rate allowed. This stonewall defense could force the Bills to -- gasp! -- throw more. New England has been good against the pass too, but this is where Josh Allen has throttled them in the past and should come through with another big game here.
- STARTS: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs (WR2), James Cook, Bills DST
- SITS: Demario Douglas (deep PPR flex at best), DeVante Parker, Bailey Zappe, Patriots DST
- SLEEPERS: Ezekiel Elliott (RB3 in PPR), Gabe Davis (boom/bust flex), Dalton Kincaid (high-end TE2)
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Arthur Smith won last week leaning on his ground game and overcoming what looked like a tough matchup against the Colts. Having a healthy offensive line helped, and he figures to have it again this week as it appears Jake Matthews will play, as might right tackle Kaleb McGary. That would put the Falcons O-line at close to full strength against a Bears run defense that's been lean on rushing touchdowns allowed to RBs (one in their past three games) but among the league's worst at explosive run rate allowed (9.6% of carries, fourth-highest). After totaling 19 touches last week, it should be a heavy lift for Bijan Robinson again.
- STARTS: Bijan Robinson, D.J. Moore, Justin Fields
- SITS: Drake London (OK as WR3 in PPR), Kyle Pitts (TE2), all Bears RBs, Jonnu Smith, Tyler Allgeier, Taylor Heinicke, Falcons DST
- SLEEPER: Bears DST
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Tennessee's defense deserves a ton of credit for hanging tough against the Seahawks last week despite missing a bunch of starters. It'll need that kind of effort again this week against a Texans offense that ran well against them two weeks ago and will finally have C.J. Stroud back at quarterback. He didn't play in their Week 15 game, nor did Nico Collins, setting up an even tougher matchup for a Titans defense that has racked up seven sacks over its past two games, but with a 27.5% pass rush pressure rate (fifth-lowest). That lack of pressure should be enough for Stroud to slay the Titans and keep the Texans' playoff hopes alive.
- STARTS: Derrick Henry, Devin Singletary (low-end RB2), Nico Collins (high-end WR2), DeAndre Hopkins (high-end WR3), Dalton Schultz (fringe TE1 in PPR), C.J. Stroud (high-end QB2), Texans DST
- SITS: Noah Brown, Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears, Will Levis
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Would you believe that the Raiders, without Josh Jacobs, have been one of the league's most productive run offenses over the past two weeks? Zamir White has crashed through defensive fronts in those two games to the tune of 5.5 yards per rush and 4.31 yards after contact per rush, both top-5 among his peers. Indianapolis got stifled by the Falcons' running backs last week, but the team's bigger issue was a lack of offensive firepower without Michael Pittman on the field. Specifically, Gardner Minshew was pressured on over 40% of his dropbacks and sacked six times. In the seven games since Antonio Pierce took over the coaching duties for the Raiders, Las Vegas has been second-to-last in blitz rate but has still been about league average in pass rush pressure rate with a fifth-best 24 sacks. They've also allowed 3.6 yards per carry with an exceptional 2.7% explosive rush rate allowed since Pierce's takeover. This is a tough spot for the Colts against a stronger-than-expected Raiders front on both sides of the ball, which makes getting the ball out quickly (especially to Pittman) a major priority.
- STARTS: Michael Pittman (WR1 in PPR, WR2 in half or non-PPR), Davante Adams (WR2), Jonathan Taylor, Zamir White (borderline RB2/3), both DSTs
- SITS: both QBs, Josh Downs
- SLEEPER: Jakobi Meyers (WR3 in PPR)
Bryce Young made some outstanding throws in the second half last week in a come-from-behind effort against the Packers, flashing the potential of who he can be once his offensive line and playbook are better in-sync with his strengths as a quarterback. Jacksonville's pass defense has been torched since its Week 10 bye, giving up a league-worst 70.5% completion rate and second-worst 8.4 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns given up (also second-worst). If the Jaguars can't score a bunch of points, there's room for the Panthers to steal a win. Luckily, they have Travis Etienne and perhaps a healthy offensive line to try and control the clock with.
- STARTS: Travis Etienne (RB1), Calvin Ridley (high-end WR3), Evan Engram, Adam Thielen (high-end WR3 in PPR only)
- SITS: all QBs
- SLEEPERS: Chuba Hubbard (RB3), D.J. Chark (boom/bust flex), Jaguars DST
The Giants have continued to blitz at the second-highest rate over the past five weeks (46.5%), but their pass rush has not been getting home (10 total sacks on a league-worst 26.7% pass rush pressure rate). That's a terrible combination to have with a rejuvenated Matthew Stafford coming to town. Now that his receiving corps is healthy (Cooper Kupp looks more like himself) and deeper than it's been (Demarcus Robinson is a speedy third receiver), Stafford is in prime position to keep up his streak of five straight games with at least 22 Fantasy points. One more perk: Stafford has been sacked just six times in those five outings, making him as dangerous as he was during his Super Bowl run in 2021.
- STARTS: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Saquon Barkley, Darren Waller, Rams DST
- SITS: Tyrod Taylor, Wan'Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Giants DST
- SLEEPERS: Demarcus Robinson (boom/bust flex)
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I'm always leery of former defensive coordinators coming back to play the teams they practiced against, but for ex-Eagles defensive boss Jonathan Gannon returning as Arizona's head coach this week, the matchup isn't a fair fight. The Cardinals are pretty much terrible across the board against the run with pass defense metrics that are only marginally better. That should compel the Eagles to run the ball a ton, something they eventually got to do last week (67% run rate in the fourth quarter) to help clinch the win. Eagles running backs have had 24 and 27 carries in their past two games.
- STARTS: Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, James Conner, Trey McBride (low-end TE1 in non-PPR), D'Andre Swift (RB2), Dallas Goedert, Eagles DST (low-end DST)
- SITS: Kyler Murray, Emari Demercado, Greg Dortch, Cardinals DST
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If you're looking for defense, you're in the wrong place. Over their past five games both teams are allowing at least 4.3 yards per carry to running backs, both teams have seen passes of 15-plus Air Yards on one-fourth of their opponents' pass attempts, both have been in the bottom-eight in pass rush pressure rate and both are in the top-10 in points scored. If there's an edge, it's that the Saints run defense has become unglued lately, especially if you remove the Giants game where Saquon Barkley played limited snaps. Rachaad White's role has only grown as the season has rolled on and should be a key for the Bucs.
- STARTS: Chris Olave, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Alvin Kamara, Chris Godwin (high-end WR3), Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr
- SITS: Taysom Hill, both DSTs
- SLEEPERS: Rashid Shaheed (WR3), Juwan Johnson (fringe TE1)
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The Commanders were down 20 points when Jacoby Brissett got on the field last week -- they lost the game on a last-second field-goal. In Week 15 Brissett came in during the fourth quarter when the Commanders were down 28-7 to the Rams and rallied them to within one score (28-20). The good news is that he seems inherently better for the offense at this juncture of the season. The bad news is that he faces a ticked-off 49ers defense that was put in some tough spots on Monday because of its offense's turnovers (17 of Baltimore's 33 points came off of turnovers). It's not hard to expect a decisive 49ers win, but that doesn't mean there won't be some second-half production for the Commanders passing game.
- STARTS: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin (WR3), George Kittle, 49ers DST
- SITS: Antonio Gibson (RB3 in PPR), Brian Robinson (RB3), Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, Sam Howell, Commanders DST, Logan Thomas
The Steelers should be encouraged by how Derrick Henry ran against the Seahawks last week (4.6 yards per carry), then be even happier to face the Seahawks with ex-Steeler Devin Bush playing at linebacker instead of Jordyn Brooks. That might mean success for their run game, but not necessarily a run-heavy approach. That's because the Steelers called pass plays 59% of the time last week until they salted the game away in the fourth quarter. That ratio could be in play for the entire game since this shouldn't be a blowout in either direction.
- STARTS: DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker, Najee Harris (low-end RB2 in non-PPR)
- SITS: Tyler Lockett (high-end WR3), Jaylen Warren (RB3 in PPR), Diontae Johnson (WR3), Zach Charbonnet, Mason Rudolph, both DSTs
- SLEEPERS: Geno Smith (high-end QB2), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR3), George Pickens (boom/bust flex)
Jarrett Stidham had two very different starts last year with Las Vegas -- a stunning 365-yard, three-score game (with 34 rush yards and two interceptions) against the Niners that I'll certainly remember for all the wrong reasons, and a total flame-out against the Chiefs in Week 18. The difference between last year and this year is that he won't have Davante Adams to throw to, he might not even have Courtland Sutton to throw to, and he'll work with a Broncos offense that's really tried to stay away from being pass-heavy all year. Stidham offers some rushing ability to go with a live arm, and the matchup isn't really tough considering the Chargers' recent results.
- STARTS: Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett (fringe TE1)
- SITS: Javonte Williams (RB3), Jerry Jeudy, Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, all QBs, both DSTs
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Patrick Mahomes hasn't scored more than 24.8 Fantasy points in a game since Week 7. From Week 8 on, the Chiefs offensive line has given up pass rush pressure on 37.9% of their dropbacks (worse than league average) despite getting blitzed at the lowest rate (18.4%). That's a troubling combination with the Bengals on deck. Cincy has faced Mahomes four times over the prior two seasons including the playoffs and have beaten him three times -- their only loss came when they blitzed a little too much back in late January. Mahomes has notched 20 Fantasy points or more in each of the four, but has been over 25 points in two. This might sound totally silly, but with the Bengals run defense struggling since D.J. Reader got hurt in Week 15 (4.6 yards per carry allowed with two touchdowns), the Chiefs might be smart to lean on Isiah Pacheco while focusing on Mahomes getting the ball out quickly on shorter routes.
- STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Tee Higgins (low-end WR2), Isiah Pacheco, Joe Mixon (RB2), Chiefs DST
- SITS: Jake Browning, Tyler Boyd, Bengals DST
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The Vikings have this incredible matchup against the Packers shaky defense, but there's worry about how well they can take advantage. Nick Mullens has been hyper-aggressive in his two starts but could get benched at the first sign of trouble. That's why it would make all the sense in the world for the Vikings to pivot back to Ty Chandler and their run game. He was outstanding two games ago against Cincinnati but was largely ignored last week against the Lions. The Packers run defense looked good last week against the Panthers (2.4 yards per carry allowed) but in the six games prior to that they had given up 5.1 yards per carry and a 9.4% explosive run rate with six rushing touchdowns to running backs.
- STARTS: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Ty Chandler (low-end RB2), Jayden Reed (WR2), Jordan Love
- SITS: Tucker Kraft, A.J. Dillon, Vikings QBs, both DSTs
- SLEEPERS: Romeo Doubs (low-end WR3), K.J. Osborn (boom/bust flex)
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