NFL picks, predictions and much more to get you ready for Thursday night's start of Week 1

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Happy Thursday all, and welcome to the NFL season! What a wonderful day. Today's newsletter will be exceptionally NFL-heavy, given the circumstances.

Let's get right to it.

Good morning to everyone but especially to...

NFL FANS...

The NFL is back, and it has an absolutely awesome opener to get us started: Last year's Super Bowl-champion Rams host this year's Super Bowl-favorite Bills, and if history tells us anything, it should be a nailbiter. Five of the last six season-opening games including the defending champs have been within one score, and the defending champs have won five of the last six as well.

2021: Buccaneers 31, Cowboys 29
2020: Chiefs 34, Texans 20
2018: Eagles 18, Falcons 12
2017: Chiefs 42, Patriots 27
2016: Broncos 21, Panthers 20
2015: Patriots 28, Steelers 21

Does our NFL expert Pete Prisco think Los Angeles will continue the trend? Here's his pick:

Prisco: "Buffalo will be explosive on offense all year and it starts here. But the biggest difference is they have Von Miller and the Rams don't. That will mean sack-fumble-game-over late for the Bills to win it. Pick: Bills 30, Rams 24"

Another highly anticipated game is Packers-Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Both teams have different looks as Green Bay lost Davante Adams this offseason and the Vikings have a new coach in Kevin O'Connell. Here's our NFL reporter John Breech's pick:

Breech: "Kirk Cousins will be in charge of a high-powered offense that includes Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. Although I'm picking the Packers to get to the Super Bowl out of the NFC this year, I'm NOT picking them to win this game and that's because I think it's going to take a week or two for them to adjust to life without Adams. The pick: Vikings 26-23 over Packers"

Here are more expert picks from:

Pete Prisco | John Breech | Tyler Sullivan

As for the best of the rest from our excellent NFL team:

... AND ALSO A GOOD MORNING TO FRANCES TIAFOE

Frances Tiafoe is dancing his way into his first career Grand Slam semifinal. The 22nd-seeded American backed up his Monday win over No. 2 Rafael Nadal with another impressive victory, taking down No. 9 Andrey Rublev in straight sets, 7-6, 7-6, 6-4.

Tiafoe, 24, is the first American man to reach a US Open semifinal since Andy Roddick in 2006. He's also the first African-American man to make a US Open semifinal since Arthur Ashe in 1972.
The match began with 30 consecutive service game holds before Tiafoe broke Rublev to take a 4-3 lead in the third. He then held serve twice more to finish it off.
For the match, Tiafoe saved all four break points he faced and hit 46 winners compared to just 31 from Rublev. Tiafoe also won an outstanding 88 percent of his first-serve points.

Tiafoe will take on Carlos Alcaraz in the semis.

Honorable mentions

Aaron Judge hit home run number 55 of the season, most ever by a Yankees right-handed batter.
Luka Doncic dropped 47 points in a win over France at EuroBasket.
A'ja Wilson won WNBA MVP, becoming the seventh player to win the award multiple times. Here are all of the awards.
Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Tottenham were the big winners from Wednesday's Champions League action.
Dawson Knox got a huge contract extension. So did Rob Havenstein.
Congrats to Emmanuel Sanders on calling it a career.

And not such a good morning for...

ZACH WILSON AND THE NEW YORK JETS

The Jets will be without starting quarterback Zach Wilson when they open their season Sunday against the Ravens, and his absence will likely extend even further into the season. According to head coach Robert Saleh, Wilson will be out until at least Week 4 as he recovers from knee surgery. Joe Flacco will get the start against his former team on Sunday.

Wilson suffered a bone bruise and torn meniscus against the Eagles in Week 1 of the preseason and had surgery Aug. 16.
It's a tough start to a season that Wilson and Jets fans hope will help them forget his rookie year, when he finished last among qualified quarterbacks in passer rating and completion percentage.
Flacco, of course, has plenty of experience. He played well in two games (one start) with the Jets last year, though he's 0-5 as a starter since joining the team in 2020. It will be his first Week 1 start since 2019 with the Broncos.

The Jets worked hard to upgrade their supporting cast around Wilson, drafting wide receiver Garrett Wilson in the first round and running back Breece Hall in the second, among other moves, but they'll have to wait to see how Wilson fits with those two around him.

Not so honorable mentions

Mets stars Max Scherzer (side) and Starling Marte (finger) are dealing with injuries.
Thomas Tuchel is out as Chelsea manager after Tuesday's loss to Dinamo Zagreb. Here's what the club needs to do to turn things around.
Inter Milan's Simone Inzaghi could be next.
Liverpool's Champions League got off to a disastrous start in a 4-1 loss to Napoli.

Five bold predictions for this season 🏈

Fortune often favors the bold, and when it comes to bold predictions, our NFL guru Tyler Sullivan has five of them, including one regarding a new face in a new place.

Sullivan: "Russell Wilson wins MVP -- The star quarterback... is inserting himself in an offense that is littered with top-tier weapons like wideouts Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, and second-year running back Javonte Williams. Wilson will also be playing for first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett, who was previously the offensive coordinator for the Packers and helped Aaron Rodgers to back-to-back MVP awards over the last two seasons."

Wilson has never received even a single MVP vote, so this is certainly a bold one, and one I wouldn't be surprised to see come true. He's currently +1600 to win MVP at Caesars Sportsbook, tied with Matthew Stafford for the sixth-best odds. You can check out all five of Tyler's bold predictions here.

Best-case scenarios for Super Bowl long shots 😬

We've spent much of the offseason and preseason hyping up the teams we expect to win a lot of games. And that makes sense. But, sadly, not every team can be good. Take it from me, a fan of the team from Washington, D.C. (I think they're going by the Commanders now?)

Anyway, before the good teams separate themselves from the bad ones and we quickly forget about the bad ones, it's important to examine best-case scenarios for the Super Bowl long shots. Remember, the Bengals went 4-11-1 in 2020 and then made the Super Bowl last year, so not every team we expect to be bad will be.

But for the most part, we know which ones will struggle. Sometimes that struggle is necessary, as it allows teams to hit the reset button. According to NFL scribe Josh Edwards, one team in need of answers is...

Edwards: "Giants (+10000) -- With first-year head coach Brian Daboll, the Giants would benefit by getting some clarity on Daniel Jones' future within the organization. Has poor coaching and instability contributed to his struggles? And will Daboll be able to elevate his play to a new level? If not, the franchise can move on next offseason with a clear conscience."

If this year -- with a new coaching staff and some intriguing skill-position players in place -- doesn't deliver a final verdict on Jones' ability to be an NFL starter, I don't know what will.

Coaches who are already on the hot seat 🔥

The quarterback carousel got a lot of attention this offseason, but the coaching carousel also spun wildly with nine teams replacing their head coach this offseason. So, who's on the hot seat now?

We've seen at least one coach let go mid-season every season since 2016, and there are plenty of coaches feeling the pressure, our NFL writer Jeff Kerr says, including:

Kerr: "Matt Rhule, Panthers -- Rhule didn't exactly get off to a great start this year by creating a quarterback competition between Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold that wasn't really there. He fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady last season, blaming him for not sharing his vision... [and has] fired three of the coaches he hired since arriving in Carolina... The Panthers are dysfunctional until Rhule changes the culture -- which is what he was hired to do in the first place."

Here are all of the coaches Jeff thinks could get the pink slip sooner rather than later.