The playoffs are here! The most glorious time of the year is upon us, with the 2023 NFL regular season coming to an exciting conclusion and a wide-open race remaining for a Super Bowl. You could talk me into just about any matchup between any team on both sides of the bracket.
In fact, I would believe you if you told me [insert any team here] beat [insert any team here] in the wild card round. Even the Steelers beating the Bills! Maybe. Anyway, let's rank the matchups for Super Wild Card Weekend from best to worst. Hope you like the flavor of REVENGE.
1. Rams at Lions (-3.5)
The super rare Double Revenge Game™️ with Matthew Stafford heading back to Detroit to play the Lions in Detroit for the first time since being traded to the Rams. Of course, the Stafford swap featured Jared Goff going from L.A., to Motown, which means it's an even bigger revenge game for the former Rams top pick. Stafford went No. 1 overall as well, which gives this a little extra juice I suppose, not that a playoff game in Detroit needs any extra juice whatsoever. Just ask Stafford: he played 12 years for the Lions and this will be his first ever playoff game at Ford Field. The last time these two teams played post trade, Stafford completed 69% of his passes while throwing for 334 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Quite the effort! Goff was a lot less impressive, but he's really developed into a viable franchise quarterback under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. The Rams are as hot as any team in the NFL lately, the Lions are hosting their first playoff game in forever and if it was Stafford who broke their souls in Detroit it would be tough to stomach.
2. Dolphins at Chiefs (-3.5)
A rematch of the Germany game from earlier this year, this game feels like a letdown, but not because of the quality, instead because of how the Dolphins went from a lock to clinch the AFC East to losing to the Bills on Sunday night in the season finale and now having to head to Kansas City to play Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce with Andy Reid having a week to rest his guys and start thinking about the various matchups he might have. The real spice comes in the form of this revenge game, with Tyreek Hill making his much-anticipated return to Arrowhead Stadium in a playoff setting. The Chiefs stifled him overseas earlier this year and he was relatively quiet against the Bills, but it's safe to say he'll be plenty motivated to show up and produce in front of his old team and his old quarterback. This line already jumped a half point within a half hour of the Dolphins game ending.
3. Packers at Cowboys (-7)
Speaking of revenge games, how do you like Mike McCarthy's old team versus Mike McCarthy's new team?? There's no Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay any more, of course, which is a shame because it would have given this matchup some SERIOUS juice. But there's still plenty to love about this game ... literally. Jordan Love looks like the Packers next franchise quarterback, justifying this year the front office's decision to move up and snag him despite Rodgers being on the roster. Love's been extremely streaky, which makes this matchup a total wild card. It feels like Green Bay has been a playoff thorn in the Cowboys side for some time now, but Dallas is probably just happy the 49ers aren't on deck. I'd expect the Cowboys -- who have utterly dominated at home all year long -- to catch a little steam and wouldn't be shocked if this game moved fairly quickly up from Cowboys (-7).
4. Browns (-2) at Texans
You could flip flop No. 4 and No. 5 on this list and I wouldn't be entirely opposed to it. But I've seen the Philly and Tampa play and I'm not sure I'm excited to see their offenses. On the other hand, we've got a sneaky fun little matchup here between two absolutely shocking playoff teams. The Browns were projected by Vegas to be a postseason club before the season but they started FIVE QUARTERBACKS and are going to be rolling out Joe Flacco for this game. Houston's been excellent against the run but has struggled against the pass lately -- I'm absolutely thrilled at the idea of catching some JANUARY JOE and maybe even some FEBRUARY FLACCO in the postseason this year. And what's left to say about C.J. Stroud? The dude is nails and was absolutely dealing on Saturday night for Houston against the Colts in a win/in game that ultimately netted them the division when the Jaguars peed down their leg against the Titans on Sunday afternoon. The voters for the NFL Honors awards should get to wait and give the winner of this game Coach of the Year, because the Kevin Stefanski and DeMeco Ryans battle could be something to behold.
5. Eagles (-2.5) at Buccaneers
The Bills winning on Sunday night shifted this game down a slot as well and, frankly, the idea of this game is a lot more exciting than the actual matchup. The Eagles are struuuuuuuuuuuggling, and the defense has been particularly porous in the second half of the season. Both Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown suffered ugly looking injuries on Sunday in a blowout loss to the Giants that came on the heels of a blowout loss to the Cardinals, the combo of which caused the Eagles to lose their vice grip on the NFC East and allow the Cowboys to steal the division title. It's a remarkable change of events. Baker Mayfield picked up a cool $1 million by the Bucs making the playoffs and this line should be nerve-racking for Eagles fans because it's so small. The Bucs have played some very bad offensive football the last two weeks but certainly have the weaponry to light up Philly's secondary if they can get rolling again. I'm cautiously optimistic we could get some fireworks between these two pass funnel defenses.
6. Bills (-10) vs. Steelers
Don't call me a company man! This game is easily the worst on the wild card slate and quite the dagger since CBS would have gotten Bills @ Dolphins if Miami had won Sunday night. This is still a "good" game in the sense that the two fan bases should be hyped and you have the super rare COLLEGE REVENGE (?) ANGLE, with Mike Tomlin and Sean McDermott both having attended William & Mary (shoutout to my colleague Ryan Wilson and friend of the pod Joe Person, both of whom also went to W&M!). But we're not not likely going to get T.J. Watt for this game with an MCL sprain (colleague J.J. Watt reported it was just a Grade 2 sprain so Watt can come back but probably not for this game) which is going to cause problems for the Pittsburgh defense. If Josh Allen cuts down on the turnovers, this could be a blowout, but the Steelers will be playing with house money after sneaking into the postseason thanks to the Jaguars failures on Sunday. Mason Rudolph will start but let's not sleep on the Mitchell Trubisky revenge angle if Rudolph struggles here.
