The presents have all been opened, cookies have been eaten, and nearly the entire Week 16 slate is complete as we rocket down the final stretch of the regular season. The holiday weekend brought with it some bitter cold for a handful of games, but also some fascinating results that are shaking up the playoff picture in both conferences. Now, the Jaguars control their destiny to reach the postseason and the Green Bay Packers are somehow still alive after everything fell perfectly for them, including their win in Miami on Christmas Day. And the drama is showing no signs of slowing down with two weeks remaining.
While we still have one more game to go between the Chargers and Colts on Monday night, let's take our first glimpse of all the Week 17 matchups and get our impression of the opening lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers see coming out on top.
Week 17 early odds
(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook)
Cowboys (11-4) at Titans (7-8), Thursday
Opening line: Cowboys -3
Dallas has since rocketed to a 9.5-point road favorite over Tennessee. The driving force behind that massive swing is the status of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is likely to miss this game and possibly the remainder of the year due to an ankle injury. The Titans are fighting for their playoff life at the moment as Jacksonville has leaped over them for first place in the AFC South. Meanwhile, the Cowboys won a massive game against the Eagles, giving them an outside shot in the NFC East race. Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games against teams with a losing record and is 11-4 in its previous 15 road games. However, as a road favorite, they are 1-2 ATS this season. Tennessee did cover its lone game this season as a home dog.
Cardinals (4-11) at Falcons (5-10)
Opening line: Falcons -3
This line has held at Falcons -3 coming out of Week 16 as each of these clubs came out on the losing end of things. With Trace McSorley under center, the Cardinals were able to take the Bucs to overtime but couldn't slay Tom Brady, who led a game-winning field goal drive. As for the Falcons, they managed just nine points in a loss to the Ravens in Baltimore. Arizona has historically enjoyed more success on the road than it has at State Farm Stadium and is 11-5 ATS in its previous 16 road games. Atlanta is 4-3 ATS at home this year, but it has stumbled after a stellar ATS start to the regular season. Over the last nine games, the Falcons are 2-7 ATS.
Bears (3-12) at Lions (7-8)
Opening line: Lions -6.5
This line has moved towards Chicago as the Lions are now a 5-point favorite at home for this Week 16 matchup between NFC North rivals. Detroit had massive momentum to make a late-season push for the playoffs, but the well seemingly ran dry on Saturday as it was blown out by Carolina. As a team, the Lions allowed 320 yards on the ground and three touchdowns. That put a massive dent into their playoff hopes and now have little margin for error and would need help elsewhere to get in. As for the Bears, they managed just 13 points as Buffalo put up 35 at Soldier Field. That ATS loss dropped Chicago to 5-9-1 ATS this season, which includes a 1-5 ATS record over the last six games. For what it's worth, however, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Jaguars (7-8) at Texans (2-12-1)
Opening line: Jaguars -4.5
Jacksonville is now just a 4-point road favorite over Houston in what is a sneaky massive game for two reasons. First, the Jaguars now control their destiny in the AFC South and would win the division if they win out. They handled the Jets on Thursday and Trevor Lawrence continues to look like the elite prospect he was billed to be coming out of Clemson. Meanwhile, the Texans upset the Titans on Saturday and might be playing themselves out of the No. 1 overall pick at the 2023 NFL Draft. Houston has been a sneaky solid bet this season as it is 7-7-1 ATS coming out of Week 16. It is also 5-1 ATS in its last six games against the AFC South. However, the Jags are looking more and more like a playoff team as the weeks pile up and are 5-1-1 ATS over the last seven games.
Broncos (4-11) at Chiefs (12-3)
Opening line: Chiefs -10
Kansas City has ballooned up to a 12.5-point favorite over Denver. The Chiefs had no problem fending off and covering against the Seahawks on Saturday to move to 12-3 on the season. However, the Broncos are a different story entirely as they were blown out by the Baker Mayfield-led Rams, 51-14 on Christmas Day. Russell Wilson was sacked six times and threw three interceptions in the loss. Andy Reid's club has been a tough team to bet on this season and is 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall, but that's not stopping this spread from knocking on the door of two touchdowns. This season, Denver is 2-5 ATS on the road. That 28.6% cover rate is tied for the second-lowest in the NFL.
Dolphins (8-7) at Patriots (7-8)
Opening line: Dolphins -2.5
Miami is now just a slim 1.5-point favorite on the road as it travels to New England to face the Patriots. The Dolphins are in a serious slump and just fell to 8-7 on the year thanks to a Week 16 loss to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Tua Tagovailoa has seemingly come back down to Earth and threw three picks in the loss. Meanwhile, things aren't going so great for Bill Belichick's team either. The Patriots scored 18 unanswered points in the second half against Cincinnati and were knocking on the door of pulling off the upset, but Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled at the 5-yard line to erase any comeback hopes. Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games, but New England is 1-4 ATS in its last five so something will need to give here. It's worth noting that the Dolphins are 4-0 ATS against the Patriots in their last four meetings.
Colts (4-9-1) at Giants (8-6-1)
Opening line: Giants -3
We could see this line move following the events of Indy's matchup with the Chargers on Monday night. New York lost a heartbreaker to the Vikings as Greg Joseph nailed a 61-yard field goal to win the game at the end of regulation. That kick came after the Giants had just tied the game at 24 just before the two-minute warning. Brian Daboll's team still sits as the No. 6 seed in the NFC, but there's little margin for error as they go down the stretch. This season, New York has been among the best teams to bet on as their 11-4 ATS record is second-best in the NFL. At home, however, they are 5-3 ATS this season, so not as clear-cut of a best bet. They'll get a Colts team that is set to start Nick Foles for the rest of the season at quarterback and have struggled to cover on the road as they are 3-5 ATS this season.
Saints (6-9) at Eagles (13-2)
Opening line: Eagles -5.5
Philadelphia is now a 6.5-point favorite as they gear up to host New Orleans. The status of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts will be worth monitoring this week, but Gardner Minshew was serviceable against Dallas despite the loss. Philadelphia is an NFL-best 6-1 ATS at home this year and owns an 11-point margin of victory average at Lincoln Financial Field. The Saints were able to beat the Browns on the road thanks to a 14-point third quarter that was headlined by an interception off of Deshaun Watson. Despite getting that road win, however, New Orleans is only 2-5 ATS on the road this season, which is one of the worst records in the league.
Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (7-8)
Opening line: Buccaneers -7
Tampa Bay is now just a 4.5-point favorite over the Panthers in what is arguably the biggest game of the Week 16 slate. A win by the Bucs would clinch them the NFC South title, while Carolina could keep their hopes of winning the division alive by pulling off the upset and then beating the Saints in Week 18. Tampa Bay pulled out an overtime win over the Cardinals on Sunday night to keep a slim lead in the division race, but the Panthers had the more impressive showing in Week 16. They dominated the Lions on the ground, rushing for 320 yards and three touchdowns. As it relates to this head-to-head on Sunday, Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings against the Bucs, but have covered in five of their last six. Tampa Bay has struggled at Raymond James Stadium this season and remains the only team in the league without an ATS win at home.
Browns (6-9) at Commanders (7-7-1)
Opening line: Commanders -2
Washington has bumped to a 2.5-point favorite and it'll be interesting to see if that crosses the critical field-goal threshold at any point leading into this matchup. Despite the loss to San Francisco over the weekend, the Commanders are still clinging to the No. 7 seed in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Browns are already eliminated from playoff contention and just fell to the Saints at home. Washington is 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record.
49ers (11-4) at Raiders (6-9)
Opening line: 49ers -4.5
San Francisco has moved out to be a 6-point favorite as they go on the road to Las Vegas to play the Raiders. The Niners dropped 16 points in the fourth quarter to fend off any thought of a Commanders comeback on Saturday to move to 11-4. George Kittle was the main contributor on offense, catching six of his eight targets for 120 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Meanwhile, the Raiders dropped a last-second defeat to the Steelers in Pittsburgh where they allowed George Pickens to score the go-ahead touchdown with just 46 seconds left in regulation. With this loss, the Raiders chances of making it into the playoff are all but done. In terms of looking for an angle on this game with San Fran, the Raiders have been a solid team to lean on at home as they are 4-2 ATS. They are also 5-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Niners are 3-3 ATS on the road this season
Jets (7-8) at Seahawks (7-8)
Opening line: Even
After opening as a pick'em, Seattle is now a slim 1-point favorite at home over the Jets. It'll be interesting to see if this line swings once there's word on the status of Jets quarterback Mike White. Filling in under center, Zach Wilson continues to look like a monumental bust for New York. The former No. 2 overall pick completed just half his passes in the eventual loss to Jacksonville and was benched in the second half for Chris Streveler. Meanwhile, Seattle managed just 10 points in Kansas City as it dropped below .500. The Seahawks are just 3-4 ATS at home this season and are taking on a Jets team that is 5-2 ATS on the road this year. However, the quarterback situation will need some clarity before fully leaning in any direction in this head-to-head.
Vikings (12-3) at Packers (7-8)
Opening line: Even
The Packers are now a 3-point favorite over Minnesota. Given that the Vikings are a 12-win team and the Packers are still below .500, it's pretty remarkable to see them as a field goal dog even though this game is at Lambeau Field. However, Kirk Cousins and company continue to look shaky and just barely gutted out a win over the Giants. As for Green Bay, it is somehow still alive in the NFC playoff picture and would need to win out to even think about punching its ticket to the postseason, but it's not impossible. If it wins out and Washington drops one of its final two games, it would be in. The Packers are 3-3 ATS at home this season, while the Vikings are 2-2-1 ATS on the road. Green Bay is also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings against Minnesota.
Rams (5-10) at Chargers (8-6)
Opening line: Chargers -8.5
While the Chargers still have a game with the Colts to deal with on Monday night, this line has already moved to Chargers -7 following the Rams 51-point outburst against the Broncos on Christmas. Baker Mayfield looks comfortable in Sean McVay's system and completed 24 of 28 for 230 yards and two touchdowns in the win. While this game is technically a road game for the Rams, these two clubs share SoFi Stadium, so any past home/road splits likely won't apply here. On the year, the Rams are 5-8-2 ATS, while the Chargers are 8-5-1 ATS entering Monday night.
Steelers (7-8) at Ravens (10-5)
Opening line: Ravens -6.5
Baltimore is now a 3.5-point favorite as they gear up to host Pittsburgh. The Ravens have already clinched a playoff spot and that could mean the team takes its foot off the gas a little bit and possibly keeps Lamar Jackson on the shelf. If he does play, that could send this line back toward Baltimore. Meanwhile, the Steelers pulled off a last-second win over the Raiders as George Pickers scored the go-ahead touchdown with under a minute left in the game. The Ravens have has been among one of the worst teams to bet on at home this season as they are 1-5-1 ATS. As for Pittsburgh, Mike Tomlin does have his team typically ready to roll on the road and is 5-3 ATS away from Acrisure Stadium.
Bills (12-3) at Bengals (11-4), Monday
Opening line: Bills -1.5
The No. 1 seed could be up for grabs in this Monday night matchup between Buffalo and Cincinnati. If the Bills win out, they'd earn home-field advantage in the AFC. However, if the Bengals win out and the Chiefs drop one of their final two games, they'd be sitting atop the standings. Meanwhile, K.C. will be pulling for Cincy here as a Bills loss coupled with winning out would give them the No. 1 seed. The stakes couldn't be higher and it makes this head-to-head one of the marquee games on the Week 17 slate.
Buffalo made easy work of the Bears in Chicago last week, but it wasn't the same case for the Bengals in Foxborough. They jumped out to a 22-0 lead by halftime against the Patriots but saw Mac Jones and company nearly pull off the upset with an 18-point second half that was only capped thanks to a Rhamondre Stevenson fumble. Still, the Bengals covered and continue to be the best team to bet on in the NFL, owning a 12-3 ATS record. That includes a 5-1 ATS mark at home. Buffalo has covered 57.1% of their games on the road this season, but are 1-4 ATS in its last five games against teams with a winning record.
