Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season is underway, and we already saw Los Angeles Rams rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua shred the New Orleans Saints to the tune of nine catches for 164 yards and a touchdown, which tied him with Cincinnati Bengals Pro Bowl wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase and Pro Football Hall of Famer Randy Moss for the most games with 150 or more receiving yards by a rookie in the Super Bowl Era (since 1966) with three.
Since anything can happen when it comes to the NFL, what's next, you ask? Well, here are five bold predictions for this weekend's Week 16 slate, which features two games on Saturday and three for Christmas Day on Monday.
Bryce Young lights up Packers for over 250 passing yards, 3+ passing touchdowns
What do the Week 15 NFC Offensive Player of the Week -- Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield -- and the Week 14 NFC Offensive Player of the Week -- Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito -- have in common? They both won their NFC Offensive Player of the Week awards for career performances against Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry's defense.
Mayfield threw for 381 passing yards, four touchdowns and a perfect 158.3 passer rating at the Packers in Week 15 to make him only the third player with 375 or more passing yards, four or more passing touchdowns and a perfect passer rating in a road game in NFL history. DeVito totaled 229 yards -- 116 passing and 71 rushing -- and one passing touchdown on 17 of 21 passing in a home win against Green Bay. That made DeVito the first starting quarterback in NFL history with a completion of 80% or better, with 70 or more rushing yards without a sack taken or a turnover committed.
In Week 16, the Packers face a struggling Bryce Young and the NFL's worst team, the 2-12 Panthers. The first overall pick from the 2023 NFL Draft has rode the struggle bus this season with a subpar supporting cast.
His 5.3 yards per pass attempt rank as the fewest yards/attempt in any qualified season since fellow Panthers rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen in 2010, the fewest yards/attempt on 250 or more pass attempts in any season by a number one overall draft pick all-time and the fourth-lowest on 400 or pass attempts in any season in NFL history.
Bryce Young QB rankings in 2023 season
| NFL Rank | ||
|---|---|---|
Comp Pct | 59% | 2nd-worst |
Pass Yards/Att | 5.3 | Worst |
TD-INT | 9-9 | 2nd-worst |
Passer Rating | 72.2 | Worst |
* 4th-fewest yds/att on 400+ attempts in any season in NFL history
Young has the best chance of his rookie season to shine, given the Packers talented but poorly-coached defense routinely has communication issues in their secondary as well as regular occurrences of linebackers being stuck on wide receivers in coverage as a result. If there's any week for him to break out, this is it.
Cowboys beat the Dolphins on the road
The Cowboys' 31-10 faceplant in Week 15 against the Bills in Buffalo is part of a season-wide trend for Dallas. At home, they lead the NFL in scoring offense (39.9 points per game), turnover margin (+10), third-down conversion rate (53.6%), point differential (+171) and time of possession (35:11). On the road, all of their numbers in those same categories are considerably worse. The discrepancy in their play by location this season is historic, given their overall success to this point.
Dallas' +167 point-differential this season is the third-highest for a team that has been outscored on the road (-4) in NFL history. The only teams that were more dominant than the 2023 Cowboys to also be outscored on the road both played just about 100 years ago: the 1924 Frankford Yellow Jackets (+217 overall point differential, -13 on the road) and the 1921 Buffalo All-Americans (+182 overall point differential, -2 on the road).
Cowboys by location this season
| HOME | ROAD | |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 7-0* | 3-4 |
PPG | 39.9* | 21.7 |
PPG allowed | 15.4* | 22.3 |
Point differential | +171* | -4 |
Total YPG | 431.7* | 304.6 |
Total YPG allowed | 289.4 | 299.1 |
Turnover margin | +10* | -1 |
Third-down percentage | 53.6%* | 43.3% |
Time of possession | 35:11* | 28:32 |
*Top five in NFL
The Cowboys still haven't figured out why their performance differs so vastly depending on where they play ball in 2023.
"No, we haven't," Dak Prescott said Thursday when asked if the team has figured out why they play so differently on the road versus at home. "I don't know if there is anything concrete, honestly. A lot of different aspects that go hand in hand, go together. Different things you could say maybe it's this, maybe it's that at the end of the day. Type of guy I am, conversations we have, they are all going to be excuses. We've just got to come out with the energy and maintain it throughout the game, regardless of the score, regardless of the down, the belief, the emotional discipline, maturity and competitiveness to not blink and enjoy when it's you against the world. So, no."
However, despite that, they will upset the Dolphins for just their fourth road win this season. While this game is a fight between the NFL's top scoring offense (the Dolphins' attack that averages 31.5 points per game) and the league's second-best scoring offense (the Cowboys' unit that averages 30.8 points per game), the game will be won when someone gets a stop on defense.
The Dolphins' entire starting offensive line has appeared on their injury report this week with the entire right side -- right tackle Austin Jackson (oblique) and right guard Robert Hunt (hamstring) -- yet to practice through Wednesday and Thursday. Since Tua Tagovailoa is a left-handed quarterback, those two function as his blindside protectors. If they are out there at less than 100% strength or their backups are in, that's a huge advantage for the Cowboys.
Dallas All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons leads the NFL in quarterback pressures (89) and quarterback pressure rate (20.9%). Parsons, Pro Bowl defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence and the rest of the Cowboys' pass-rush unit combines to generate a quarterback pressure rate of 47.1%, the highest in the league. The Cowboys defensive front takes advantage of Miami's compromised offense line to come up with enough key stops to have Dallas flying back home to Texas happy.
Joe Flacco becomes first Browns QB to throw for 300+ yards in three consecutive wins
Joe Flacco, at age 38, returned to NFL football after missing training camp and taking his children to school, as no team in the league wanted him on their roster to start the 2023 season. Fast forward to today and the former Ravens Super Bowl MVP is balling out as the starting quarterback of the Cleveland Browns after injuries up and down their depth cart. A truly jarring sight.
Flacco has the most passing touchdowns (7) and passing yards (939) by a quarterback at the age of 38 or older in his first three games with a team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. He will continue that run of success by becoming the first Browns quarterback ever to throw for 300 or more passing yards in three consecutive Cleveland victories.
His Week 16 opponent, the Houston Texans, allow 239.1 passing yards per game, the eighth-most in the NFL. Facing a Texans team without C.J. Stroud, the NFL's total defense gets the ball back in Flacco's hands routinely, allowing him to rack up yards as he marches the Browns offense up and down the field.
Seahawks snap five-game road losing streak with win at Titans ... no matter who is at QB
The Seahawks have lost five straight road games, their longest streak since 2010-11 -- Pete Carroll's first two seasons as Seattle's head coach. They have never lost six in a row on the road with Carroll, and that's not going to change against the 5-9 Titans on Saturday in Tennessee, no matter who the Seahawks' starting quarterback is.
Backup Drew Lock led a 92-yard, game-winning touchdown drive with 1:52 left on the clock in a 20-17 victory over the Eagles on "Monday Night Football." Should starter Geno Smith return from his groin injury, a likely event since he practiced fully earlier this week, Seattle will win. He threw for 334 pass yards, three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in the 41-35 road loss at the Cowboys in Week 13, his last game played.
Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis endured a career-high seven sacks last week in a 19-16 overtime loss against the Texans and suffered an ankle injury on a sack in overtime. Tennessee running back Derrick Henry historically struggled, totaling 10 scrimmage yards on 20 touches, the fewest scrimmage yards on 20 or more touches by any player in any game since 1950.
If Smith can't go and Lock starts again? It won't matter. Seattle's road struggles end in Week 16, no matter who they start at quarterback.
Giants don't allow an Eagles sack on Christmas Day in Philadelphia
The 2023 Giants (5-9) have surrendered 76 sacks this season, tied with the 2002 Houston Texans for the third-most allowed in a season all-time. They are only three sacks allowed away from taking second-most on the all-time list from the 1997 Cardinals. During the 10-4 Eagles' three-game losing streak, their defense has crumbled. They are allowing 31.7 points per game (second-worst in NFL), 382.3 total yards per game (fifth-worst in NFL) and 254.3 passing yards per game (seventh-worst in NFL) since Week 13.
Despite having a porous offensive line, New York keeps Tommy DeVito upright for the entire game during Monday's second game of the Christmas Day tripleheader, not allowing Philadelphia's stumbling defense to register a single sack.
