Let me start off this week by saying congratulations to the 49ers and Jets for playing the two worst games of football that I think I've ever seen in my life, which is saying a lot because I've watched the Browns play for 12 weeks this season.
Just when it looked like Colin Kaepernick was going to be the worst quarterback of Week 13 after completing just ONE pass against the Bears, Ryan Fitzpatrick almost one-upped him with his putrid game against the Colts on Monday night.
Both teams were so terrible that I can say for sure that I would rather watch a Paul Blart: Mall Cop movie marathon than be forced to watch either team play again this season.
I'm legit watching paul blart 2 alone right now how did we get here— xmas-zucc (@WhomZucchini) November 26, 2016
That's basically going to be me this Sunday for the entire three hours that the Jets and 49ers are playing. I'm going to watch both Paul Blart movies and pretend the game's not happening, and I'm going to do that even though I've seen both movies five times. I don't want to ruin the movie for you, but Paul Blart's not even a good mall cop. If he was an NFL coach, he would be Jeff Fisher, and that's not a compliment.
Speaking of Fisher, he is one loss away from tying the NFL record for most by a coach, and he actually seems kind of enthusiastic about it.
Jeff Fisher on being one loss away from most in NFL history: "You can look at as glass half full or empty."— Ashley Brewer (@abc7ashley) December 6, 2016
That's like your child getting kidnapped and then telling your wife the glass is half full because now you don't have to pay for a babysitter. I would go on a long Fisher rant here, but I already did that Sunday. Instead, I'm going to talk about the Jets again.
I was just thinking about it, and I came down kind of hard on the Jets a little bit earlier, when in fact, I kind of owe them an apology. Thanks to their incompetence, I was able to turn off the Monday night game at halftime and turn on something way more entertaining: The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show.
Hi Gigi and Elsa! Call me.
Now, you might be wondering what the fashion show has to do with football and the answer is nothing. Since it aired on CBS, I thought right now would be the perfect time to suck up to my bosses by letting them know that I watched CBS on Monday night. I also watch as much CBS as possible. My contract requires that I watch at least nine hours a day.
As for the show I was watching Monday night, it turns out there might actually be a legit football connection between The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show and the NFL.
That connection: Julian Edelman may or may not be dating Adriana Lima.
If they have a kid, he'll probably be catching passes from Tom Brady in 20 years since it's pretty clear at this point that Brady is going to play until he's either 75 or until his arm doesn't function any more. I'm guessing the second one.
Lucky for us, my arms are functioning perfectly, which is a good thing, because if they weren't, I wouldn't have been able to type up this week's picks.
Before we get to those picks, here's your weekly reminder to click over and check out the picks from every CBSSports.com NFL writer. This week you should click over because fantasy writer Dave Richard is on a run that might end up bankrupting Las Vegas.
Richard went 11-4 against the spread in Week 13, which means he's now 25-5-1 against the spread over the past two weeks. We might have to start calling him the "U.S. Mint" because he's basically printing money at this point.
Enough of Richard though, let's get to the picks.
NFL Week 14 picks
Oakland (10-2) at Kansas City (9-3)
8:25 p.m. ET, Thursday (NBC/NFL Network/Twitter)
Since I live in San Diego, I never actually have to Google the weather because it's pretty much sunny and warm every day, and yes, that is me rubbing it in. Anyway, I heard that it gets cold in other parts of the country, so I decided to Google Kansas City's weather for Thursday, and I hate to tell you guys but global warming is definitely over because it's supposed to be 20 degrees there.
I'm not sure who that helps more, but I have to think that can't be much of an advantage for a team from California.
So who am I going to take in this game?
Well, here's what I like about the Chiefs in this game: They might be getting Jeremy Maclin back, they already beat the Raiders once (26-10) and Alex Smith has an 8-1 career record against Oakland with some impressive numbers to show for it (18 touchdowns, three interceptions).
On the other hand, here's what I like about the Raiders in this game: They've won every game they've played since losing to the Chiefs in Week 6, they're undefeated on the road this year and they rank second in the NFL in fourth-quarter scoring this season.
Now that I'm thinking about it, the things I like about the Raiders, I think I like those more than the things I like about the Chiefs.
The pick: Raiders 22-19 over Chiefs
Houston (6-6-) at Indianapolis (6-6)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
If you've been reading these picks over the past few weeks, then you probably know that I'll generally take any chance I can get to pick against Brock Osweiler. If you haven't been reading these picks, well, I love to pick against Osweiler. However, the problem in this game is that the Colts defense is so bad that it might actually make Osweiler look good. Although that sounds impossible, they managed to do it in Week 6 when they allowed Osweiler to throw two touchdown passes in the final two minutes and 40 seconds of a game that the Texans would win 26-23 in overtime.
The bad news for the Texans is that I'm 99 percent sure Osweiler peaked in that game and that his career has been going steadily downhill ever since. He's like Macaulay Culkin in Home Alone -- everything just fell apart after that movie for Culkin, which is how I feel about Osweiler since Week 6. I bet Andrew Luck gets mad every time he sees all the talent going to waste in Houston because he would probably be 12-0 if he was playing for the Texans. He would also already have the AFC South clinched. Luck doesn't play for the Texans though, which means he's going to have to win the division with the Colts. This win will probably help him do that.
The pick: Colts 24-20 over Texans
Seattle (8-3-1) at Green Bay (6-6)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Two weeks ago, everyone in America thought Aaron Rodgers was taking crazy pills when he said he thought the 4-6 Packers could run the table and finish 10-6. Now, here we are two weeks later and Green Bay is a third of the way there.
When I looked at the Packers schedule two weeks ago, I thought they could win all their remaining games, except for this one, but now, I'm not so sure. If I know Aaron Rodgers like I know Aaron Rodgers, then he's probably planning to throw the ball about 50 times on the Seahawks and every one of those throws is going to be aimed to a part of the field where Earl Thomas should be, except Thomas won't be there because he's out for the season after suffering a leg injury during the Seahawks' 40-7 win over the Panthers on Sunday night.
The reason I'm afraid to pick Seattle is because this game is being played on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Sure, the Lambeau mystique sounds like an old wives tale, but I assure you, it's not. I got so bored watching the 49ers-Bears game Sunday that I actually did some research this week, and here's what I found out about Lambeau Field: Rodgers is 14-0 in his past 14 December home games.
Basically, Rodgers is more reliable in December than Santa Claus.
However, I can't pick him because he's going to be playing with a bad hamstring against a defense that smells blood in the water before there's even blood to smell. I'm not sure if that's even scientifically possible, but I think the Seahawks can slow down the Packers offense.
The pick: Seahawks 27-24 over Packers
Dallas (11-1) at N.Y. Giants (8-4)
8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
If there's any team that can beat the Cowboys, it's the Giants, and we know that because they've already done it this season. That one blemish on the Cowboys' 11-1 record was a 20-19 loss to the Giants in Week 1.
Although we can probably all agree that the Cowboys have gotten better since then, I don't think we can say the same thing about the Giants. I actually think they've gotten worse. Their offense is a disaster, and every week they play, I'm half expecting them to score three points or less.
If the Giants want to fix their offense, the solution is simple: Ben McAdoo needs to demote himself to offensive coordinator. The Giants had a top-10 offense in both 2014 and 2015 when he was OC. This year, they're ranked 26th. Since I don't think McAdoo is going to demote himself before this game kicks off, I don't see any way the Giants can score enough points to keep up with the Cowboys.
Not one road game lost in 7yrs 😲😩🙌🏾— Marisa J (@TheSpideyLady) December 5, 2016
Cowboys and Buckeyes fans will dig these absolutely crazy Ezekiel Elliott stats https://t.co/mxgZsTC4z2
I would be a fool to pick against that.
The pick: Cowboys 30-20 over Giants
Note: The Cowboys will clinch the NFC East with a win. That's just an FYI in case your Cowboys fan neighbor seems extra insufferable this weekend.
Sad Browns fan of the week/Browns pick
The sad Browns fan for this week is every Browns fan alive, and that's because we're just days away from the one-year anniversary of the last time the Browns won a game. If the Browns can't beat the Bengals on Sunday, that means they'll have gone an entire calendar year without winning.
If you ask me, that's almost impressive as the Patriots' 16-0 season in 2007.
Based on the guy's jersey below, it looks like Browns fans are already fully prepared to celebrate the one-year loserversary (yes, I'm working on the trademark now).
I feel like the mayor of Cleveland should pony up some cash and buy one of those jerseys for everyone in the city.
Actually, you know what, it might just be cheaper to give everyone a Johnny Manziel jersey, which would probably be more fitting since he was the last Browns quarterback to win a game for Cleveland.
Get your limited edition Johnny Manziel Jersey on sale. . pic.twitter.com/toW49HFMmd— NEGAN (@lowkie83) August 5, 2016
Seriously, that's where the Browns are as a franchise: You can buy a jersey of the last guy who won a game for $2.
Also probably worth noting: The last quarterback to win a game for them is a guy who just went on a $35,000, three-night bender for his birthday. I love benders as much as the next person, but $35,ooo seems kind of excessive.
Personally, if I had $35,000 to spend on my birthday, I would've bought 17,500 of those $2 Manziel jerseys and given one to every single person in Cleveland, but that's not what Johnny decided to do. Nope, Johnny decided to drop that money on Ace of Spades Champagne.
I wasn't going to spend $35,000 on my birthday next month, but now I might. I just need to find someone to borrow $34,000 from.
As for the pick, the Bengals know Hue Jackson too well, so they won't fall for any of his tricks.
The pick: Bengals 27-20 over Browns
NFL Week 14 picks: All the rest
Chargers 30-27 over Panthers
Lions 24-17 over Bears
49ers 24-21 over Jets
Patriots 24-23 over Ravens
Best pick: Last week, I picked the Steelers to beat the Giants by 10 and then the Steelers went out and beat the Giants by 10. Now, did I know that the officials were going to play mind games with Odell Beckham like my ex-girlfriend did with me in high school? Of course I did.
If I know one thing about NFL officials it's that they love playing mind games. How else do you explain all those horrible calls every week? They're obviously doing it on purpose. Think about it, that's the only way to explain how they blow so many calls all the time. They're playing with us, just ask Vikings fans.
@Vikings The NFL should have a new rule where teams should be able to challenge the refs miss calls. These refs should be fined as well.— Terry Parker (@cellsandaccess1) December 4, 2016
I like that guy's thought process. The only downside to that rule is that every game would take 19 hours because there would be a challenge on every play.
Worst pick: My worst pick in Week 13 wasn't an actual game, it was my decision to start Brandon Marshall in fantasy football.
As everyone knows, "Never start a Jets player" is basically the first rule of fantasy. It's closely followed by "Never draft a Browns players," "forfeit your season if you get stuck with Brock Osweiler" and "Never start the 49ers defense."
Well, I showed complete disregard for rule No.1 this week and I paid dearly. Going into Monday night, I needed 44 yards from Marshall to win my game and advance to the playoffs. I got 43.
I'm convinced that I'm still suffering the bad karma of beating my sister by 83 points two weeks ago and then rubbing it in her face by writing about it here. I don't even believe in karma, but she does, and it has been sucker-punching me for two weeks, so now I do.
"Always be nice to your sister" seems to the the lesson here.
By the way, my fantasy team was horrible, and definitely didn't deserve to be in the playoffs, just like whoever gets the last seed in the NFC. Every team fighting for that sixth seed is average.
Finally, just because you're wondering, my actual worst pick of Week 13 was taking the 49ers over the Bears.
The only upside to the loss is that 49ers fans at the San Francisco airport had an emotional support pig to help them get over the game.
There's no reason every airport shouldn't have an emotional support pig.
Straight up in Week 13: 9-6
SU overall: 109-81-2
Against the spread in Week 13: 8-7
ATS overall: 89-94-9