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Shoutout to all of those who followed my picks, because we went 11-3 against the spread last week. Everything we touched turned to gold. I even took the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover the spread before seeing that their whole secondary was out vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it didn't even matter. We blessed them to victory.

All kidding aside, it's nice to have an elite week like that because overall, the season hasn't been what I wanted it to be. Either way, there's still so much football left. All I ask is that you read my explanations and then make your own decisions. 

Let's take a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Top five picks ATS record: 13-17
Overall ATS record: 47-46-1
Straight up record: 55-38-1

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured Game | Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts

If you were unaware, everyone in the state of Tennessee is in the midst of a week-long bender. The other Tennessee football team in Knoxville defeated the Alabama Crimson Tide for the first time since 2006, and everyone stormed the field, uprooted the goal posts and threw them into the Tennessee river. That momentum appears to have somewhat carried over into other sports, as the NHL's Nashville Predators scored a goal right after the crowd got done singing "Rocky Top" earlier this week. Maybe we will hear some "Rocky Top" at Nissan Stadium on Sunday. It would be good luck.

We've made the Titans a best bet in their last two games and it's worked out. Tennessee is 3-0 SU and ATS after beginning the season 0-2 SU and ATS. The second of those three wins came against the Colts in Indy, as Tennessee's defense held Jonathan Taylor to 2.1 yards per carry, while Derrick Henry rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown. 

Since the spread is under three points, this best bet selection boils down to two things: The Titans are a better team than the Colts, and Mike Vrabel has never lost coming off of a bye week.

The pick: Titans -2.5
Projected score: Titans 27-23

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions

I don't want to totally bypass the fact that Dak Prescott looked bad in Week 1 before he hurt his hand, but Sunday in Dallas feels like it may be a celebration. The Cowboys are 4-2, and did so without their starting quarterback. Now, he returns to an offense that is ready to shift to the next gear, and a defense that is one of the best in the NFL. 

The Lions had a couple good games to start the year but have now lost three straight -- including a 29-0 beatdown handed to them by a rookie quarterback who many didn't expect to even play this year. Not exactly the way you want to head into the bye week. The Lions are allowing 34 points per game and 428.6 total yards per game, which both rank dead last in the league. If they were to finish the season with those averages, it would mark the second-worst scoring and total defense in the Super Bowl era over a full season. Historically bad. 

The Lions are also winless in their last 12 road games dating back to 2020, when Adrian Peterson was their leading rusher. Give me the Cowboys.

The pick: Cowboys -7
Projected score: Cowboys 35-23

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured Game | Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns

I would venture to guess that Ravens fans are mad. They have had a double-digit lead in all six of their games this season, yet are just 3-3. They are the 40th team in NFL history to lead by 10-plus points in each of their first six games of a season, and the only one that didn't have a winning record. If Ravens fans are mad, then you know the team is, too.

The Browns have now lost three straight, including an embarrassing 38-15 loss to Bailey Zappe and the New England Patriots at home last week. I wonder if this team is trending downwards. The defense isn't good and Jacoby Brissett isn't exactly lighting it up. The Browns are allowing 27.2 points per game this season, which is tied for second-most in the NFL, while the Ravens are first in the NFL in yards per rush (5.95) and 10th in yards per pass (6.8). 

I just believe this is a bounce-back spot for a team that is better than its record indicates. The Ravens have won 10 out of the past 13 meetings vs. the Browns and are 18-5 all-time at home vs. the Browns. While Baltimore doesn't have a great defense, it actually ranks No. 8 against the run. Cleveland has the No. 1 rushing offense in the league, so this matchup will come down to that.  

The pick: Ravens -6.5
Projected score: Ravens 30-21

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Washington Commanders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured Game | Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers

I don't have any advanced statistics for this, but why do I need them? The haters thought I was dumb for taking the New York Jets +7.5 as a best bet last week, and look what happened? Taylor Heinicke gave Tom Brady a run in the playoffs two years ago, and I think he provides a spark against a struggling Packers team.

The pick: Washington +4.5
Projected score: Commanders 23-21

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured Game | San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I correctly predicted the Chiefs would lose to the Buffalo Bills last week, and I planned on making Kansas City a best bet this week no matter who it was playing or where. The 49ers in Levi's Stadium isn't the most ideal situation, but I like this Chiefs team much more than the 49ers.

I feel like the 49ers are held in maybe higher regard than they should. I think they are very live to beat any team on any given Sunday, but the franchise wanted to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo for a reason, and I think last week gave us a good example of how to beat them. The Atlanta Falcons quickly jumped out to a 14-0 lead and then held the 49ers to just 50 yards rushing. I think that's the game plan for any team playing the 49ers. Punch them in the mouth first and then make them pass the ball to keep up. 

The Chiefs have been prone to slow starts this year, which does give me pause, but Patrick Mahomes has lost back-to-back games only four times in his career. Kansas City has won 13 straight regular-season games vs. the NF  and ranks in the top two in the league in points per game (29.8), third down percentage (50%) and red-zone touchdown percentage (76%). I think everybody would agree here -- the Chiefs are the better team. So if you're going to give me them for fewer than three points, I'm going to take it.

The pick: Chiefs -2
Projected score: Chiefs 24-17

Other Week 7 picks

Cardinals (-2.5) 28-23 over Saints
Buccaneers 20-13 over Panthers (+13)
Bengals 28-24 over Falcons (+6.5)
Giants (+3) 21-20 over Jaguars
Raiders (-7) 30-20 over Texans
Jets (-1) 20-14 over Broncos
Seahawks (+5) 28-26 over Chargers
Dolphins 23-20 over Steelers (+7)
Patriots (-7.5) 27-17 over Bears