The first mock draft you do following the NFL Scouting Combine can be tricky. Yes, you have a lot of new data to help determine which players are more likely to be selected than others, but you don't want the recency bias to overwhelm your judgment.
Plus, with the combine being such an event now, the hype can be overwhelming. You're likely to see Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy show up earlier in mocks after he ran a 4.21 40-yard dash because a 4.21 40 is incredible, and everybody has talked about it. What they haven't talked about nearly as much is why the 172-pound Worthy, who finished 23rd among 43 college receivers with at least 100 targets last season in yards per target (8.5) and ran a go route or a hitch on 40% of his routes, didn't go through any of the drills.
The combine is a useful tool, but it should only be used to confirm or contest what you see on tape. I did my best to keep that in mind while putting together my third mock of the spring.
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NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 1
USC
• 6'1"
/ 215 lbs
At this point, it seems like a foregone conclusion that Caleb Williams will be the first player chosen in the draft. Perhaps there's a small chance it'll be somebody besides the Bears taking him, but I doubt it.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
LSU
• 6'4"
/ 210 lbs
I've often seen Jayden Daniels compared to Lamar Jackson, but I see him more as a skinnier Justin Fields. He's too quick to leave the pocket sometimes and is more comfortable working to the edge than the middle of the field. Also, did you know that Daniels is only 20 months younger than Fields?
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Drake Maye
QB
North Carolina
• 6'4"
/ 230 lbs
Maye's 2022 tape was much more consistent than his 2023 tape, as he had better receivers and worked behind a better offensive line. What stayed the same was his size, athleticism and arm. His footwork needs refinement, but he has franchise-quarterback tools.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Ohio State
• 6'4"
/ 205 lbs
I understand why some might raise an eyebrow about Harrison not working out at the combine and that he reportedly won't work out at Ohio State's Pro Day, either. But if you're nervous, turn on the tape. He's strong, has a huge frame, is smooth in his route-running and will instantly be Arizona's best WR.
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Mock Trade from
Los Angeles Chargers
Round 1 - Pick 5
Michigan
• 6'3"
/ 202 lbs
So Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers trade down with the Vikings team Harbaugh interviewed for a couple of years ago, and then the Vikings use that pick to take Harbaugh's former QB at Michigan. In this scenario, Kirk Cousins has left for Atlanta, and the Vikings replace him with another QB who is very comfortable working over the middle of the field.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Joe Alt
OT
Notre Dame
• 6'8"
/ 322 lbs
I can envision a scenario where the Giants take a QB and groom him for a season while riding out another year of Daniel Jones, but this makes more sense to me with four QBs already off the board. Alt is a franchise cornerstone left tackle who will benefit the entire offense for a decade.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Amarius Mims
OT
Georgia
• 6'7"
/ 340 lbs
I wasn't surprised by Amarius Mims' combine performance because that's what he looks like on the field. He's a giant man who moves like a ballerina exposed to plutonium and now cannot stop driving unwilling defenders out of your television screen. The only problem is there's not as much tape for us to watch because he has had difficulty staying on the field.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Malik Nabers
WR
LSU
• 6'0"
/ 200 lbs
As I said earlier, in this scenario, Kirk Cousins has joined the Falcons, and now Cousins finds himself going from Justin Jefferson to a team with Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and now Malik Nabers. This offense would be terrifying.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Rome Odunze
WR
Washington
• 6'3"
/ 215 lbs
The run on QBs in the top five allows Rome Odunze to fall to the Bears at No. 9. Odunze is my top-rated WR in the class and is a great complement to what the Bears have in D.J. Moore. Pairing Odunze with Caleb Williams could prove to be a franchise-altering draft for the Bears.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Oregon State
• 6'6"
/ 334 lbs
This was a combine performance that caught me by surprise. I never thought Fuaga was a statue, but he tested better than I anticipated. I guess he's just so physically imposing that when you watch him maul people, you don't notice the athleticism as much. When you're watching two grizzlies fight, you usually don't check out their footwork, you know?
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 - Pick 11
JC Latham
OT
Alabama
• 6'6"
/ 360 lbs
The Chargers move down, pick up a few assets and still get a right tackle to solidify their offensive line and protect Justin Herbert.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
Dallas Turner
EDGE
Alabama
• 6'4"
/ 242 lbs
I swear I didn't go into my mock intending to go this long without a defensive player going off the board, but it's not entirely without question. I don't think there's any question that this draft class strength is on the offensive side. Still, Dallas Turner is an excellent prospect who the Broncos would be happy to have.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Toledo
• 6'0"
/ 196 lbs
Depending on how the free agent QB shuffle goes, the Raiders may look to move up and get somebody in the top 10. In this simulation, they grab the one player whose stock has soared throughout the entire pre-draft process.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Jared Verse
EDGE
Florida State
• 6'4"
/ 260 lbs
I don't find this to be the most enticing class of edge rushers, but while I may not look at a player like Verse as a game-changing presence, I don't envision a scenario in which he doesn't turn out to be a solid starting-caliber player who helps out against both the pass and run.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Alabama
• 6'0"
/ 196 lbs
I'm a big Terrion Arnold fan. He improved considerably as the season went on and can be used in a variety of ways. You can put him outside, in the slot or even at safety. He's a true Swiss Army knife of a defensive back.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Texas
• 6'1"
/ 308 lbs
One reason Mike MacDonald's defenses have been so successful at the college and NFL levels? They have disruptive forces on the interior of their defensive lines, and that's exactly what Byron Murphy will give the Seahawks defense.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Nate Wiggins
CB
Clemson
• 6'2"
/ 185 lbs
There will be concerns about Wiggin's overall size, but he plays like a much bigger corner. His speed and length are crucial to his game, and he plays with a high motor.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Brock Bowers
TE
Georgia
• 6'4"
/ 240 lbs
Talent-wise, there's no reason Brock Bowers should fall this far. However, only nine tight ends have gone in the first round of the last 10 drafts, and of those nine, only three (Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, and Eric Ebron) went in the top 10. If history is the best indicator of future behavior, the Bengals may be handed a pleasant surprise.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Penn State
• 6'6"
/ 317 lbs
If Olu Fashanu had left school last season, he would have been a top-10 pick. Instead, he stayed in school for another season and came out in a draft class much deeper at the tackle position, allowing him to fall this far.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Troy Fautanu
IOL
Washington
• 6'4"
/ 317 lbs
I've seen Pittsburgh take Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson here a lot, and that's certainly possible. However, this class is much deeper at center than most realized, which was evident at the combine. So, in this mock, I have the Steelers addressing the tackle position and possibly using their second-rounder on a center. Oh, and they've also signed Russell Wilson. Maybe.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Tyler Guyton
OT
Oklahoma
• 6'7"
/ 328 lbs
I toyed with the idea of the Dolphins adding Brian Thomas Jr. to their cadre of super fast human beings, but as fun as that would be, the smarter play is addressing the offensive line.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Iowa
• 6'1"
/ 207 lbs
I love DeJean's versatility and playmaking ability. The Eagles need to upgrade their secondary and DeJean is a good get for them here.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 23
Laiatu Latu
EDGE
UCLA
• 6'5"
/ 267 lbs
As long as the medicals come back clean, Latu will not reach the second round. After grabbing Will Anderson Jr. with their second pick last season, the Texans bookend him with Latu.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Arizona
• 6'5"
/ 325 lbs
If you're a connoisseur of line play, go ahead and put on the Arizona offense versus the UCLA defense and watch Morgan go head-to-head with Laiatu Latu. It's just as good as Godzilla vs. Kong. The Cowboys take Morgan as a Tyron Smith replacement.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Alabama
• 6'1"
/ 195 lbs
McKinstry didn't work out at the combine because of a Jones fracture in his foot. It's the kind of injury that could significantly impact his stock if teams aren't comfortable with the medicals, but for the moment, he's a player who makes a lot of sense for the Packers.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Chop Robinson
EDGE
Penn State
• 6'3"
/ 254 lbs
Opinions vary, but I'm not overly high on this edge class, which is why I have Chop Robinson at the top of my board. I see him as having the highest ceiling of any edge prospect in this class, so I'd take him before others. Based on the intel I've gathered from others, I'm not in the majority with this opinion. Still, I don't think he gets out of the first round.
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From
Houston Texans
Round 1 - Pick 27
Duke
• 6'5"
/ 314 lbs
Some see Barton as a player who will move to guard at the NFL level, while others think he can stick at tackle. I'm in the former camp, but the Cardinals could use help all across their offensive line.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Illinois
• 6'2"
/ 295 lbs
Buffalo could use a young talent infusion on its defensive line, so I have the Bills adding one of the most talented interior linemen in the class. Newton didn't work out at the combine because of a foot injury, but he is a violent and disruptive presence on the inside.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Minnesota
• 6'2"
/ 210 lbs
I've had the Lions address the secondary in all three mocks, and I'll likely continue to have them doing so. I love Nubin. He's the kind of talented and smart player you want on the back end of your defense.
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Mock Trade from
Baltimore Ravens
Round 1 - Pick 30
Washington
• 6'3"
/ 213 lbs
The Raiders didn't trade up earlier to get a quarterback, but with Michael Penix on the board, they pull the trigger here. Penix has a great arm and is an intriguing prospect, but by getting him in the first round, the Raiders get the fifth-year option with him.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
BYU
• 6'6"
/ 325 lbs
Suamataia played both tackle positions during his time at BYU, and while he'd be destined for right tackle as a rookie, he could serve as the potential replacement for the 35-year-old Trent Williams down the line.
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Round 1 - Pick 32
LSU
• 6'4"
/ 205 lbs
With such a deep WR class, teams may choose to wait on targets once the top three go off the board, which happened in this mock. But will they still do it if they realize it could lead to Brian Thomas Jr. falling into Kansas City's lap?
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The 2024 NFL Draft will take place from April 25-27 in Detroit. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft order and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.