Thursday marks the arrival of my final mock draft of the 2023 NFL Draft cycle but today is unique. Instead of making selections based on what teams are expected to do, the selections are solely based on how I would handle each situation. When the dust cleared, 30 of my top-31 prospects were taken in today's thought exercise.
The draft order below is now the official order based on team records and tiebreakers. There are only 31 picks as a result of the Dolphins' pick being forfeited due to tampering violations.
Without further ado, let's kick this off!
For more draft content, check out our latest prospect rankings and mock drafts, as well as our new weekly podcast, "With the First Pick," featuring former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. (Check out the latest episode below.)
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
Carolina is not going to pass on a quarterback in this situation and Bryce Young is my favorite of the class. What he lacks in height and weight, he makes up for with decision-making.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
I liked Davis Mills coming out of college but do not view him as a franchise quarterback. C.J. Stroud is my second favorite quarterback in this class and I believe he represents an upgrade over Mills.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
As the general manager for every other team, I decided not to trade up. The Seahawks wanted to move up but Arizona was not dealing to deal within the division. Detroit was another consideration but elected against it. The Cardinals would love to trade down but the options were not there. I stayed put and took the best player on my board.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Will Levis is the third-ranked quarterback for me and Indianapolis needs a long-term solution at the quarterback position. Shane Steichen has worked with Jalen Hurts but he is also worked with Justin Herbert. Steichen has been a net positive for Herbert and Hurts so perhaps that continues with Levis.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 5
If I am Seattle, I do not know when I will be picking this high and in position to take a quarterback again. Geno Smith played better than anyone could have expected last season but he will turn 33 this season and most quarterbacks start declining around this time. I am taking Richardson with the understanding that he will sit and learn behind Smith for a year.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Jalen Carter is my top available prospect at a position of need and value. There will be discussions about whether the support system is in place to help him make the transition to the NFL, but I am not scared away by what I've heard about him.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Las Vegas may be competitive for the upcoming season but this is a franchise that really needs to start thinking about its future. They have several needs on both sides of the ball and two of their best players -- Chandler Jones and Davante Adams -- are over 30. I'm building the offensive and defensive lines before I worry about skill players.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Two running backs are the only remaining players ranked higher than Devon Witherspoon. Atlanta is not a running back away from contention so it takes the next best player, which happens to be Witherspoon.
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From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 9
Tyree Wilson is not the best player on my board but he is close and Chicago needs some pass rush help. I am looking for a pass rusher with the upside to become one of the best in the league and Wilson offers that possibility.
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From
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 10
I do not believe in taking a running back in the first round unless that player could be the missing piece to a Super Bowl. Philadelphia has a very talented roster and the running back position is left to Kenneth Gainwell and Rashaad Penny, who was unable to stay healthy in Seattle. Bijan Robinson is the No. 4 player on my board so I am getting value at a difference-making position.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Tennessee needs to upgrade the offensive line before concerning itself with replacing Ryan Tannehill. At that point, the Titans will probably be looking for a Derrick Henry replacement and doing some soul-searching on offense. I am not confident in Andre Dillard so get the best five on the field.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 12
Myles Murphy is a top-10 prospect on my board and that is largely because of his athletic testing. He has ideal size to play in that role but the athletic profile suggests he could become more at the next level.
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From
New York Jets
Round 1 - Pick 13
I want to support Jordan Love and allow him to build confidence in his first season so I am adding an accountable wide receiver to pair with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
New England has taken some smaller, less-heralded cornerbacks but Bill Belichick has always favored long boundary cornerbacks. An offensive tackle would be ideal here but it would be a stretch to take one over Christian Gonzalez, who has the traits to earn a lot of money over the course of his NFL career.
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From
Green Bay Packers
Round 1 - Pick 15
New York upgraded its secondary a year ago with the additions of cornerbacks D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner. Brian Branch may not have the athletic skill set that Gardner possesses but he is a smart, accountable safety with strong leadership skills.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
I am higher on Cam Smith than most. He might be physical in coverage but he is intelligent and made a lot of progress from 2021 to 2022. I want to see if that trajectory continues in the Commanders' revamped secondary.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Pittsburgh needs to upgrade at offensive tackle to protect its investments of Kenny Pickett and Najee Harris over the past two years. Broderick Jones is a young player who can play whichever side the Steelers believe is the bigger liability.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Best player available intersects with position of need here as Detroit adds a lengthy boundary cornerback with speed to serve as its long-term solution.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Tampa Bay needs to get younger and more inexpensive. Nolan Smith is arguably the best player available and he provides Tampa Bay with an off-ramp in Shaq Barrett's contract after the season.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Seattle continues investing in the defensive line this offseason. After signing Dre'Mont Jones in free agency, they turn around and draft Bryan Bresee in the first round. The Seahawks still need to identify some pass-rush help but they have upgraded both sides of the ball significantly over a two-year period and now have a potential future at quarterback.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
J.C. Jackson missed some time last season and Los Angeles does not have answers without him. If Joey Porter Jr. and Jackson are both on the field, then Asante Samuel Jr. could theoretically play the slot.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
At this point, I do not know what version of Odell Beckham Jr. will take the field this season and Rashod Bateman has not been totally trustworthy either. Quentin Johnston gives me the size and ball-winning capabilities I have been missing. The Ravens may not be able to get DeAndre Hopkins but Johnston is a nice consolation prize.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Jordan Addison is one of the best available players and Minnesota is able to pair him with Justin Jefferson. The Vikings have their dynamic duo of the future.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Michael Mayer is the best prospect on the board. Evan Engram is playing on the franchise tag so the Jaguars could still theoretically opt to move on after the year and carry on with Mayer after a cheaper rate.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Trenton Simpson is an athletic linebacker and the best prospect on the board. New York signed Bobby Okereke but Simpson is a great fit for what Wink Martindale wants to do with the defense.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Dallas replaces Dalton Schultz with Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid is a really dynamic talent in the pass game. Dallas' defense was much improved last season but the Cowboys should be able to put up some points with CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Kincaid.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
The world saw the impact of adding a quality slot receiver to the Buffalo offense. By adding a player of Zay Flowers' caliber, it upgrades the floor of the Bills' offense drastically. Offensive guard was also a consideration but Flowers was the best player available.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Cincinnati has taken some shots at upgrading the offensive line in free agency. Some of those attempts have panned out and others have not. After signing Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency, the Bengals identify an interior lineman in the first round.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 29
New Orleans lost Marcus Davenport in free agency and retains depth at edge rusher by taking the best player available: Felix Anudike-Uzomah.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
After taking running back Bijan Robinson at No. 10 overall, Philadelphia adds a versatile lineman at No. 30 overall. Matthew Bergeron has played left tackle but also has the frame to slide inside. He may not be called upon as a rookie but his value is his versatility until one day settling into a starter's role.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
Jahmyr Gibbs is my eighth-ranked player so Kansas City is getting great value. Isiah Pacheco is a bigger back so they bring in Gibbs to complement him. Gibbs has elite receiving ability so Andy Reid will be able to move him around the formation.
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