Last week I told you that you should stand by your man with your struggling tight end. But Dallas Goedert, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, David Njoku, and company didn't make it easy to keep saying that. Through two weeks, none of them are top 25 tight ends. And it's not like the bar has been raised at the position.
There are currently eight tight ends averaging double-digit FPPG and 13 who are averaging even eight per game. So while your starter may be annoying you, no one else has given you a good reason to trust them. Of the eight respectable tight ends so far, only Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, and Darren Waller were drafted to be starters. That leaves Hunter Henry, Sam LaPorta, and Hayden Hurst. Henry does top the waiver list below, but he's the only one of these guys I'm ready to start over Goedert, Kittle, or Pitts.
One guy I am actually worried enough about to sit is Njoku. Deshaun Watson has looked terrible, Njoku isn't as involved as we expected, and the Titans present a much better matchup for wide receivers than they do tight end. I'd sit Njoku for all three of the streamers below. Note: Henry was the top streamer, but he's 80% rostered as of Thursday so I have removed him.
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John Bates could be a deep streamer if Thomas is out.
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Numbers to Know
30.5% -- Zach Ertz has a 30.5% target share for the season, leading all tight ends. Cole Kmet and Darren Waller are the only two other tight ends to be targeted on more than a fifth of their team's pass attempts.
2.39 -- Trey McBride is averaging 2.39 yards per route run, compared to 1.43 for Ertz.
34.6% -- Travis Kelce was targeted on 34.6% of his routes run in his return, tops among all tight ends.
3 -- Pat Freiermith is the only tight end with three end-zone targets in the first two weeks.
5.4 -- George Kittle has averaged just 5.4 yards per target. His efficiency has fallen off just as fast as his volume.
The arrival of D.J. Moore hasn't hurt Kmet as much as we expected. His role looks like that of a low-end TE1, and the matchup in Week 3 against the Chiefs could make him even better than that.
Ferguson leads the entire NFL with seven red-zone targets and five targets inside the 5-yard line. The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the league, and with Budda Baker on IR, they will be particularly soft over the middle.
Christian Watson was not at practice on Thursday so Musgrave should be third on the Packers in targets in Week 3. He's facing a good Saints pass defense but they'll be missing one of their starting safeties, which could open up the middle of the field. Njoku is the only starter I'm sitting for Musgrave.
Kelce played just 64% of the snaps in Week 2 and still scored 12.6 PPR Fantasy points. His edge over the position figures to be bigger than ever, and in cash games I would rather try to save money somewhere else.
I know, I know. But contrarian means low roster rate, which inevitably means great reasons not to play him. Obviously there are many of those with Kyle Pitts. But I do expect the Falcons to be down two scores in this one, and I'm hopeful Desmond Ridder throws the ball 30-plus times. Pitts' price has fallen so far that it would only take one big play to make him worth it.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 3 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 3. Projected stats for all starting tight ends are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections over at SportsLine.
