A new spate of injuries brings a new slate of start/sit debates and we're here to answer them all for every matchup on the slate. There are players you should start and sit and matchup-based sleepers who could provide unexpected production plus big names who could flop based on these matchups. Every week we'll break down every game on the slate and pinpoint the players you need to know in every matchup.
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All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Bust Candidate
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The Bills run defense is exactly the kind of matchup you're looking for with Patterson, but the 30-year-old receiver-turned-running back has hit a slump over his past three games. Without two touchdowns, he'd be averaging a puke-worthy 4.0 PPR points per game (it's still not great that he's averaging 8.0 PPR points per game WITH the touchdowns). Patterson doesn't have consistent burst on his edge runs, isn't fighting through tackles and is hampered by poor run blocking. He's also seen his touches drop from 18 to 13 to 8 over his past three. In a game the Falcons ought to be trailing in, Patterson doesn't look or feel like the guy who helped carry us to the Fantasy playoffs in the first place.
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Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The Bills have seemingly settled on him as their main running back, giving him 17-plus touches in each of their past two games. He's rewarded their faith with a rushing score and at least 78 total yards in each. In a set-up that should give the Bills some playing time with a lead, Singletary will face a Falcons run defense that's allowed 90 total yards to a running back in six of its past nine and a score to a rusher in 11 of 15 games. He's a must in all formats.
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Sit Him
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Sportsline
Buffalo is already league-best in Fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers and quarterbacks. They're also top-10 in time of possession while the Falcons rank seventh-worst. Point is, the Falcons could very easily find themselves with limited pass attempts while chasing points. A similar scenario played out last week and the Falcons were lucky to escape with a win despite 24 pass attempts against the Lions. Gage has kept a target share above 22% for six straight weeks, but that only works out when Matt Ryan gets to throw a ton of passes. The Bills have allowed just five touchdowns to wideouts all season long and only four have been north of 15 PPR points. Gage feels like a low-end PPR flex at best.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Bust Candidate
Projections powered by
Sportsline
When Devontae Booker is playing better than you, something's wrong. Booker not only looked better than Barkley in Week 16 but played more than him and was more efficient, though both factors might have been thanks to the game script in their blowout loss to the Eagles. The unfortunate truth is that Barkley has been incredibly frustrating to watch, hesitating behind his overmatched O-line and forced to take small gains (if not losses) play after play. We can't even blame it on stacked boxes -- he's seen eight men in the box on just 8.7% of his carries over the last three games. So why not call him a flat-out sit? The Bears run defense is pretty awful; with or without Akiem Hicks, they've given up a touchdown to a runner in 10 of their past 13 games and allowed 80-plus total yards to a rusher in eight of their past 10. It gives Barkley a glimmer of hope for some decent gains, provided he finds 15 carries for a fourth-straight game, but not enough to say he's a must-start.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Start Them
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Williams has already started five games this season in place of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, picking up 19-plus touches in four of them (all wins) and coming away with 16-plus PPR Fantasy points in three of those. I think the only ways Williams wouldn't get a lot of work is if the Chiefs get blown out (seems unlikely) or if Derrick Gore gets really hot really early in the matchup. Speaking of the matchup, it's not exactly easy: the Bengals have kept running backs to just two touchdowns and one 100-total-yard game over their past six. They've done well against backs on the Raiders, Steelers, 49ers, Broncos and Ravens. But how many of those teams have an excellent quarterback to force the Bengals to greatly respect the pass? That's where Williams has an advantage -- not only is Patrick Mahomes an obvious difference-maker, but Mahomes has willingly thrown to Williams and handed off to him in the red zone for much of the year. Count on that continuing, making Williams a start ahead of guys like Saquon Barkley, Melvin Gordon, D'Onta Foreman and Devonta Freeman.
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Kansas City's track record against rival quarterbacks has been impressive -- only one has had 22-plus points against them since Week 6. But outside of Dak Prescott (who they stymied) and Justin Herbert (who lit them up), they really haven't faced any great passing offenses. Burrow had himself one of Fantasy's best games of the year in a home matchup against a Ravens defense that played tons of zone coverage and couldn't come up with one sack. That's a great sign for Burrow, who previously fared better against man coverage and pressure defenses. The Chiefs are league-average in pass rush pressure rate and statistically rank ninth in man coverage played, but they've been able to vary their coverages from game to game. Burrow's best numbers have come at home, where he has as many multi-touchdown games as on the road (six), but comes up with more yards (280-plus in 6 of 8) compared to the road (250-plus in 3 of 7). Assuming a relatively high-scoring game between these AFC contenders, Burrow has a shot at 300 yards and multiple touchdowns and is a more reliable starter than Herbert and Russell Wilson, to name two.
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Sneaky Sleeper
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Boyd's past two weeks have been wild: He's scored on catch-and-run plays of 50-plus yards and had nearly had a third score on a 32-yard bomb last week. But it's not really who Boyd is as a receiver. On the year he has four end-zone targets, six red-zone targets, 14 targets on throws that travel 11-plus air yards, a low average target depth (7.89) and a modest target per route run rate (18.3%). Boyd remains a volume-needy receiver who doesn't even clinch seven targets when his team is in competitive high-scoring games. This week figures to be one of those games, and starting Boyd for that reason makes sense, but it cannot be done as anything more than a flex or No. 3 wideout. Just know that he's never scored in three straight games in his career, and the Chiefs have been relatively decent against rival slot receivers (68% catch rate ranks 11th best).
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Bust Candidate
Projections powered by
Sportsline
It goes without saying that Pittman shouldn't be trusted if Sam Ehlinger is the Colts' quarterback this week. But in the event Carson Wentz is able to play, I still am a little nervous about Pittman. The Raiders run defense is not as good as the Broncos made them look last week, and Jonathan Taylor is definitely better than his Week 16 stats suggest. Especially if Wentz misses most of the week's practices, I would expect Indy to give Taylor a ton of touches against a Las Vegas squad that's leaked 94.4 rush yards and 39.3 receiving yards to running backs this season and rank seventh-worst in Fantasy points allowed. That means a downswing in numbers for Pittman, who has under 15 PPR points in four of five games in which Taylor has 20 or more carries this year. He's a borderline starter in any format but does deserve serious consideration in full PPR.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Sit Them
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Before we can even think about Ogunbowale, consider how long it took Fantasy managers to trust the Jaguars run game. Even when we thought Robinson would be the guy, there were times he was not. Therefore, do not assume Ogunbowale will be the only rusher for the Jaguars. If he is, then the Jaguars will utilize an average back who doesn't have much speed or power rushing behind an already weak offensive line that might be down two starters. He's a flex at best.
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This should be a matchup the Patriots can win by running the ball. While that might set up Henry for a play-action touchdown grab, it shouldn't put him in position to get four-plus receptions, which he's done in only five games this year (three losses, one close win, one blowout win). Henry has three touchdowns in nine games with three or fewer receptions, and six touchdowns in those five matchups with four-plus. The Jaguars have seen just five touchdowns to tight ends in 2021.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
If only for the red-zone and end-zone targets, Sam Darnold is the best guy to throw to Moore. The differences between Darnold and Cam Newton as it relates to target volume and other efficiencies are pretty equal, but with Darnold, Moore's average target depth was 3.0 yards greater and certainly included more red-zone (nine) and end-zone (four) targets. I'm especially encouraged by Moore's four-game streak of 10-plus non-PPR/15-plus PPR points against the Saints, including a sweet 11/8-79-1 versus them in Week 2 (with Darnold at QB). He remains a good starter in PPR and has enough upside to be useful in non- and half-PPR formats too.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Sit Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Carter really started to get going in the second half last week against Jacksonville, picking up chunks of yardage on runs outside of the tackles. He saw 73% of the snaps but still was close in overall carries with Tevin Coleman and specifically lost out to Coleman in goal to go carries (4 to 2). That's concerning, but they're taking on the Bucs and it's not like they're about to get a ton of chances to score anyway. Tampa's allowed six total touchdowns to running backs in their last nine. It means Carter will have to rack up total yards on, hopefully, a bunch of touches. That's also concerning since the Bucs have let up over 100 total yards to one running back in those last nine. Facing Tampa Bay without Lavonte David and Shaquil Barrett is a perk, but the likelihood of a favorable game script really makes Carter tough to go with as a No. 2 running back.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Sit Them
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I fear Foreman's in a hot-hand situation as part of a three-headed run game for the Titans. That's bound to happen when you average under 2.0 yards per carry, which Foreman did last week. With the Titans shut out in the first half and tied going into the fourth quarter, Jeremy McNichols saw the majority of snaps as their hurry-up offense back. I can't say for certain the Titans will find themselves in the same situation this week against Miami, but I can say the Dolphins have played some outstanding defense in their past six games including keeping running backs out of the end zone in each. That's half of Foreman's appeal. Further, there's been just one running back with 10-plus PPR points in those last six against Miami (Saquon Barkley) and none with 10-plus non-PPR. It's tough to expect a good game from Foreman for your Fantasy squad.
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A few weeks back I noticed that Gesicki's target share wasn't as reliable when DeVante Parker was on the field with him. That came to pass last week when he had 15.4% of the Dolphins' targets, but he's also been pretty much a non-factor in the Dolphins offense since Week 8. That week also happens to be the last time the Dolphins lost, so it's not like Gesicki's lack of numbers have hurt this team in any way. He'll line up against the Titans, who have allowed one tight end (Travis Kelce) to score more than eight half-PPR points against them all season! Only three tight ends have scored on the Titans, a list that does not include George Kittle, Hunter Henry and Dawson Knox.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Sneaky Sleeper
Projections powered by
Sportsline
As of this writing, Miles Sanders has been ruled out, Jordan Howard was sidelined from practice with a stinger and Kenneth Gainwell and Jalen Hurts were limited in practice. If things stay this way, Scott should reliably be the Eagles' lead running back on Sunday and even have a clear shot at short-yardage work. If Jordan Howard comes back, then it's up in the air who will see the most carries and have the most goal-to-go opportunities. But there's no denying how effective Scott has been when given the chance: in four games with 11-plus carries, he's delivered a minimum of 10 non-PPR each time. He could still come up around that number if Howard plays, but it'll be tougher to trust him. The only game this year when Washington let up over 100 rush yards to a team's group of running backs was in Week 15 against the Eagles, and it wound up being 200 yards thanks to the Football Team playing with a depleted defensive unit.
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Sit Him
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Sportsline
I can't think of a good reason to start McLaurin, who has five straight games with nine or fewer full-PPR points. After picking up 9.1 targets per game in his first 10, he's averaged 5.0 in his last five, which unfairly includes one game he got knocked out from with a concussion, but you can still tell he's just not as involved as he was (or should be). Washington coach Ron Rivera said this week he intends to play Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen at quarterback, further hindering any chance of finding a rhythm between McLaurin and his passers. And then there's the matchup against an Eagles pass defense that's been lights out over their past six games (two wideout touchdowns, zero wideouts with 80-plus yards). You shouldn't have to worry about a big game from McLaurin this week.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Bust Candidates
Projections powered by
Sportsline
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I want to tell you to confidently start these guys, but this Broncos offense is gross. With Drew Lock under center for basically five-and-a-half quarters, Denver has scored a total of 20 points with a third-down conversion rate of 21% (3 for 14). They had a pretty good matchup last week against the Raiders and not only stunk but had Williams and Gordon each get seven carries as their snap share was close to even again. I know they're playing the Chargers and that L.A. let Rex Burkhead rumble all over them for 149 rush yards and two touchdowns, and I know their offensive line will be better this week with Lloyd Cushenberry back at center, but I have trust issues that keep me from liking either back as anything more than low-end No. 2 Fantasy options. Williams' explosive style is the better of the two.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Sit Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I know Burkhead was amazing last week in a tremendous matchup against the Chargers. Don't chase it. Last week was only the second time this season that a Texans running back had at least 20 carries in a game and the sixth with at least 15 carries. Burkhead himself never had more than 50 rush yards in a 2021 game until last week. Don't count on an encore against the 49ers, who have ceded three rushing touchdowns and one 100-yard game to running backs in their past five. I'd rather start Ogunbowale.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I'm expecting a bounce-back game from Matthew Stafford, particularly against the Ravens' beat-up secondary. Stafford was off-target on seven throws of 11-plus air yards last week, the worst among Week 16's quarterbacks. But the week before, he was on-point and didn't have any off-target tosses, and only one the week before that. I'm far from suggesting something is wrong with Stafford's arm, which makes me happy to trust his receivers. Beckham has scored in four of his past five and has at least four receptions in three of those. At least one rival wide receiver has posted a minimum of 90 yards against the Ravens in six straight, and 10 touchdowns have been scored by the position in those six.
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Sit Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The Ravens have played with a backup quarterback for the past two weeks and they've relied even less on Freeman. His playing time has trickled to below 60%. His touches have faded to under 10. His efficiency? Don't ask. If not for a touchdown plunge last week, he would have totaled three non-PPR points in his past two (and nine in his last three), and the story isn't much better in PPR. It's true that the Rams have seen a running back score and get at least 50 total yards in four of their past five games, but it's beginning to feel like Freeman's in an uphill battle for work. Maybe he gets a little closer to the workload we saw at the midseason if Lamar Jackson plays, but Freeman's rarely posted a strong rushing average this year and would need to score to even have a gasp's chance at 10 Fantasy points.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
We used to believe that the Cardinals pass defense was great against No. 1 receivers but weak against others. Lately, they've been weak against everyone, letting up 15-plus PPR points to six different wideouts over their last three games. Over the last five games, the Cardinals' zone-leaning pass defense has had a below-average pass-rush pressure rate with 14 sacks over their past five games with outside receivers specifically garnering a 68.2% catch rate and five touchdowns in that timespan. That meshes delightfully with Cooper, who's lined up out wide for much of the year and sure to benefit from Dak Prescott's blind side getting left tackle Tyron Smith back (hopefully).
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
In their past 12 games, only three quarterbacks have scored 20-plus Fantasy points against the Lions. How could this be when the Lions own the second-worst pass rush pressure rate in football? Frankly, it's a combination of opponents running on the Lions and a bunch of mediocre quarterbacks on their schedule. The only notable passers not to hit the 20-point mark on the Lions this season are Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins in their first meeting. Wilson has been a grab-bag of Fantasy success but he has posted 20-plus in each of his past four games with Tyler Lockett on the field with him. I admit there's not much upside for a monster game, but as safe quarterbacks go, Wilson fits the bill.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Start Them
Projections powered by
Sportsline
When it comes to games in prime time and/or games with playoff implications, Cousins tends to struggle. He's failed to land over 20 Fantasy points in eight of his past 10 prime-time games; his last big game in prime-time came against Green Bay in 2018 (342 yards and three scores). Of course, that's probably the only strike against Cousins this week. Six games ago, Cousins and the Vikings lit up the Packers' then-stout pass defense for over 325 yards and three scores. We've seen the Packers pass defense really come apart since then, letting up big Fantasy games to Stafford, Justin Fields and Tyler Huntley. It gives Cousins a chance, and I wouldn't discount him not having Thielen -- he's come through for over 20 Fantasy points in 7 of his 11 without him. I think he has more upside than Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert.
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Over the past four weeks, Thielen has either missed the entire game or played less than a half. In those four, Osborn has had at least 10 non-PPR/14 PPR points three times. Touchdowns have helped as he scored in Weeks 13, 14 and 16. The only downer was at Chicago (Week 15) in a game the Vikings didn't need to throw very much. They're definitely going to have to throw it against the Packers, and Osborn should be in line for a minimum of seven targets, which he's had in those three successful games for Fantasy. The only game since Week 11 that the Packers didn't allow good PPR points to multiple pass-catchers was last week against the Browns. Osborn should be in consideration as at least a high-end No. 3 receiver.
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10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Start 'em
Sit 'em
Sit Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
In two games since his disaster showing against the Vikings, Claypool has seen eight targets and caught four passes (and a lateral) for 53 scoreless yards. That equated to a 15.7% target share with one red-zone and zero end-zone targets. I'm not saying Claypool has been punished for what he did against the Vikings, but it definitely feels like he's going to have a harder time coming through for Fantasy managers. Compound that with the Browns getting some of their defenders back at full strength (they gave up three scores to Aaron Rodgers' receivers last week) and Claypool shouldn't be counted on as a reliable Fantasy starter.
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