Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six Newsletter!
Happy Valentine's Day to those who celebrate. I usually do, but I'm not sure I will this year because I'm not even sure my wife remembers me considering I spent the past nine days in a different state.
With the Super Bowl now two days behind us, that means the NFL offseason is officially here. If you're wondering what this newsletter will look like during the offseason, it will mostly be me writing long-form think pieces where I make the case that any coach who loses a game by three or more touchdowns during the season has to coach in his team's mascot outfit the following week. JK, the NFL offseason is always loaded with news, so you'll be getting a full newsletter each and every day, starting with today.
We'll be starting today's newsletter off with Pete Prisco's final power rankings of the season, plus we'll be taking a look at who the Super Bowl favorites are for next season. Not to mention, I solved the mystery of who has the football from Harrison Butker's game-winning kick, which is worth an estimate $350,000.
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. All you have to do is click here and then share the link. Alright, let's get to the rundown.
1. Prisco unveils his final power rankings of the season
For his final power rankings of the season, Pete Prisco had to totally reshuffle things and that's because he didn't have the Chiefs in the top spot at the end of the regular season. Also, he didn't even have the Eagles in his top three. Those two teams are now at the top of the power rankings and to make that work, Pete had to stay up late and do some major reshuffling, and let me just tell you that Pete hates staying up late.
With that in mind, here's a look at how the top five turned out in Prisco's final rankings of the season:
- Chiefs (Previously No. 2)
- Eagles (Previously No. 4)
- Bengals (Previously No. 5)
- Bills (Previously No. 1)
- 49ers (Previously No. 3)
Dropped out: No one
I'm not going to spoil the rest of the power rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets:
- The biggest drop in the rankings went to the Minnesota Vikings. Going into the playoffs, they were ranked seventh overall, but they fell all the way to 11th after losing at home to the Giants in the wild card round.
- The Jaguars made the biggest jump in Prisco's final Power Rankings, moving up four spots from 11th to seventh. If you need a quick refresher of what the Jaguars did in the postseason: They beat the Chargers in a game where they once trailed 27-0 and they also kept it close with the Chiefs, losing just 27-20.
- The Lions didn't make the playoffs, but Prisco still had them ranked AHEAD of one playoff team. The Lions checked in at 14th, which was ahead of the Buccaneers, who ended the season as the 17th-ranked team after flaming out at home in the wild card round.
- Finally, Pete made no changes to the bottom of the rankings, which means that the BEARS will end the year in the cellar. Last year, the Texans ended the season as the 32nd-ranked team, but this year, the Bears will take the honor.
If you want to know where your favorite team team ended up in Prisco's Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything.
2. Colts officially hire Shane Steichen as head coach
The Colts finally have a head coach. I repeat, the Colts finally have a head coach. The Colts fired Frank Reich Nov. 7, which means they've gone more than three months without anyone holding the official title of head coach. However, that changed on Tuesday with the hiring of Steichen.
Here's what you need to know about Steichen:
- He's been a star on the rise. Steichen got his start in the NFL in 2011 with the Chargers and was actually on their staff for three years with Frank Reich (2014-16). Steichen was an offensive quality control coach as recently as 2015 with the Chargers, but after that, he shot up the coaching ladder, going from QB coach for L.A. (2016-19) to offensive coordinator in 2020. In 2021, the Eagles hired him as offensive coordinator and that's where he's been for the past two seasons.
- Steichen led one of the best offenses in football. Although the Eagles lost, Steichen will surely be pointing to Super Bowl LVII on his resume and that's because Philadelphia's offense was nothing short of magnificent with 35 points scored and 417 total yards. During the 2022 season, the Eagles had the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL while also ranking third in yards per game. Steichen called plays for the Eagles in 2022 and was clearly good at his job.
- Why Steichen might be the perfect guy for the Colts. If you've watched the Colts over the past few seasons, then you know that their QB situation has been a nightmare. If anyone can fix that, it might be Steichen. Not only did he help turn Jalen Hurts into a star this year, but he has also served as the offensive coordinator or QB coach for both Justin Herbert and Philip Rivers. Basically, quarterbacks have had a lot of success with him. Also, he was a college QB at UNLV, so he has a great understanding of the position.
The Colts hired Steichen after talking to a total of 14 candidates since the end of the season. For more on Steichen's hiring, be sure to click here.
3. Super Bowl mystery solved: Here's what happened to the football from K.C.'s game-winning field goal
There's no doubt that the Kansas City Chiefs were the biggest winners on Super Bowl Sunday, but if you're wondering who the second-biggest winner was, that answer would probably be Eamonn Dixon, the lucky fan who caught Harrison Butker's game-winning field goal.
What you may not have noticed if you were watching at home is that Butker blasted the field goal OVER the kicking net, which sent the football into the crowd and that's how Dixon came up with it, and that's just one of several crazy parts to the story.
- Dixon wasn't even supposed to be attending the game. In an interview with 3AW in Australia, Dixon, who works for an advertising agency, said he was literally offered a ticket on the morning of the game. "I didn't have a ticket to the game, but one of my incredible Doritos clients called me up in the morning and said that a spare ticket had become available."
- Dixon didn't arrive at the game until the national anthem. Dixon, who lives in San Francisco, said he got the call about the ticket around 7 a.m. PT and then chaos ensued, "I got a flight at 12 p.m. and got to the game just as the national anthem was being sung."
- Dixon took video of himself catching the ball. Not only did he end up with the football, but he filmed the entire thing, which you can see here. "I didn't drop the phone and luckily I wasn't holding a beer as well, that would have been a bit awkward," Dixon said, via the Sydney Morning Herald.
- He quickly left the game at the suggestion of a security guard. "Everyone was asking for photos with me and giving me high-fives, and then the security guard tapped me on the shoulder, and he said, 'I think you should get out of here pretty quickly with that thing before some other people try to grab it.'"
Dixon, who is a native Australian, is now the proud owner of a football that's worth an estimate $350,000. If you want more details on this story, be sure to go here.
4. Super Bowl LVIII odds: Chiefs are the favorite for next year's big game
In news that likely won't surprise anyone, the team that just won Super Bowl LVII has opened as the favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII. And yes, this means that you can already bet on the winner of next year's Super Bowl and that's because the oddsmakers never sleep, just like no one's going to sleep at the Super Bowl next year because it's being played in Las Vegas (and televised by CBS).
Let's check out the Super Bowl odds for the 2023 season (For a full list, be sure to click here)
1. Chiefs +550 (Bet $100 to win $550)
2. 49ers +600
3. Bills +650
4. Eagles +800
5. Bengals +900
6. Cowboys +1600
7. Chargers +2200
8. Jaguars +2800
9. Lions +3000
T-10. Dolphins +3500
T-10. Packers +3500
T-10. Jets +3500
T-10. Rams +3500
T-10. Giants +3500
T-10. Ravens +3500
Worst odds: Texans at +12500 (Bet $100 to win $12,500)
Breech's best bet: Bengals or Eagles
Best Value: Vikings (+5000)
If I had to make a Super Bowl bet right now, I'd probably put some money on the Bengals or Eagles. The Bengals are absolutely loaded and they have almost every starter coming back for the 2023 season. As for the Eagles, the NFC feels wide open and although I think the 49ers could give them some trouble, I can't bet on a team if I don't know who their Week 1 quarterback is going to be and I don't know that with the 49ers right now.
Jordan Dajani covered five teams that could be a solid value bet, and you can check out those picks here. One team Dajani likes is the Vikings. Their defense was definitely the team's biggest weakness last season, but with Brian Flores now running things on that side of the ball, that unit should be able to take a big step forward in 2023.
5. Derek Carr drama continues: Raiders expected to cut longtime QB
The drama between Derek Carr and the Raiders should be finally coming to an end today with the expectation that Las Vegas is going to dump its longtime QB today. We mentioned this briefly in yesterday's newsletter, but here are a few more details:
- Why the move has to happen today. If Carr is still on the roster on Feb. 15, that will trigger a clause in his contract that will give him $40.4 million in guaranteed money. Trading Carr would make the most sense for the Raiders, but they can't do that because Carr has a no-trade clause. This means that if the Raiders want to avoid paying Carr $40.4 million, they have to cut him by 4 p.m. today.
- What happens after he gets released. Although free agency doesn't start until March 15, Carr will be free to sign with any team if he gets cut. Any player who gets released before free agency is immediately allowed to sign with another team, which is why you sometimes see free agent signings happen before the official start of free agency. However, it's very rare that you see a player of Carr's magnitude become available in February
- Possible landing spots for Carr. According to NFL.com, four teams that will almost certainly be interested in Carr are the Saints, Titans, Jets and Panthers. Carr would be an intriguing fit with Frank Reich in Carolina. As for the Titans, he only seems like a slight upgrade over Ryan Tannehill, so it will be interesting to see if Tennessee makes a serious play for him. We actually came up with a few other possible landing spots for Carr and you can check those out by clicking here.
By the time you read this, there's a good chance Carr will have been released. If Carr is still on the Raiders' roster by the end of the day, it would be a total surprise to everyone, including him.
6. Rapid-fire roundup: Ravens hire an offensive coordinator
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Ravens hire Todd Monken as OC. Less than a month after winning a national title with Georgia, Monken is now headed to Baltimore. Although Monken has been in the college ranks for the past three years, he has plenty of NFL experience. In his 34-year coaching career, the 57-year-old has had stops with the Browns, Buccaneers and Jaguars. He spent one season as the OC for both the Bucs (2018) and Browns (2019).
- Commanders eyeing three for OC job. The Commanders still need to fill their offensive coordinator job and it looks like they're targeting several big names. According to multiple reports, Greg Roman, Eric Bieniemy and Anthony Lynn are all candidates for the job. For more on their search, be sure to click here.
- Panthers hire Jim Caldwell. After firing Matt Rhule, who had no NFL head-coaching experience, the Panthers are now stocking up on former NFL head coaches. The team has announced the hiring of Caldwell as a senior assistant. Caldwell, who was the head coach of the Lions from 2014 to 2017, now joins Dom Capers on the Frank Reich's staff. Capers was once the head coach for the Panthers (1995-98) before moving on to Houston (2002-05).
- Ex-Eagles player award $43.5 million in lawsuit. Former Eagles player Chris Meragos has been awarded a hefty sum after filing a medical malpractice lawsuit against the doctors who treated him following an injury he suffered while playing in the NFL. Meragos tore his PCL in 2017 and never played again and had sued for lost wages. For more on his lawsuit, be sure to go here.
- Eagles star set to have surgery. After playing with a torn adductor for well over a month, Lane Johnson is finally going to have surgery. The Eagles offensive tackle injured his groin on Christmas Eve, but instead of going on IR, he decided to play through the injury, making it all the way to the Super Bowl.
- Dalvin Cook set to have surgery. According to ESPN.com, the Vikings running back is set to have surgery on an injured shoulder that he originally suffered in 2019. Apparently, he's been playing the past three years with a banged-up shoulder.
- Ex-Cardinals star dies at 72. Conrad Dobler, who was once dubbed "Pro Football's Dirtiest Player" on the cover of Sports Illustrated, died on Monday. Dirty or not, the offensive lineman was a star during his 10 seasons in the NFL. The three-time Pro Bowled played for three teams over the course of his career, including the (Cardinals (1972-77), Saints (1978-79) and Bills (1980-81). For more on Dobler's life, be sure to head here.