The football season is too short to be able to count on regression in any specific instance, but that doesn't mean we should ignore it. There are a handful of wide receivers who have had terrible touchdown luck to start the year, and I'd fully expect they finish stronger than they currently rank. Maybe this well help you buy low, or maybe it just gives you the courage to keep starting them despite their disappointing play. Either way, don't give up on this crew reaching pay dirt.
D.J. Moore and John Brown are the only two receivers with more than 680 receiving yards and two scores or less. I'll talk about them in the DFS section, but they've also kind of met expectations in a weird way, so they don't quite fit this group.
Incredibly Davante Adams, Mike Williams and Robert Woods still don't have even one receiving touchdown. It's even stranger for Williams and Adams because they regularly reached the end zone in the past. They've both been on preseason touchdown regression lists in the past, but this is ridiculous. Williams even has 10 targets in the red zone, he just hasn't cashed in.
Adams and Woods have been victimized by usage and play calling in the red zone. For Adams specifically, it's mostly been Aaron Jones, and I'm not sure I see that changing. That's not to say he'll stay scoreless. He'll score plenty after the bye, just maybe not at the rate he did the past two years.
Odell Beckham and Tyler Boyd have both scored once, but their play has also been bad at times. I still have a lot of faith in Beckham finishing strong and finishing the year as a top-12 receiver. I'm less confident in Boyd due to his quarterback situation.
Send out some feelers to see if you can buy low on any of these receivers before the deadline.
Week 11 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 11 at this time. Here's what it means:
Deebo Samuel could be a solid No. 3 or better.
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Numbers to Know
- 28% - Target share for DeAndre Hopkins in the six full games Will Fuller played. It ballooned to 36% without Fuller, who returned to practice Wednesday.
- 199 - Air yards for Christian Kirk in Week 10. Only Tyreek Hill had more.
- 16 - Average depth of target for Mike Williams. He's been unlucky this season, but it's tough to know when that will turn around.
- 1,044 - Air yards for Curtis Samuel this season. Only Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Kenny Golladay and Julio Jones have more.
- 12.9 - Yards per target for Stefon Diggs. That's almost a full yard better than any other receiver with at least 40 targets.
- 29.7% - Target share for Courtland Sutton in two games without Emmanuel Sanders.
Matchups that matter
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Waiver Wire Targets
Samuel hauled in eight of 11 targets Monday night and could see a chunk of targets again in Week 11 with Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle both hurt. He has 19 targets in his past two games, and he's catching 70% of his targets, so he's worth a speculative add even if Sanders or Kittle returns. If they're both out, and he's a solid No. 3 with upside.
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Crowder is still available in 30% of leagues and has 80 yards in each of his last two games. The schedule doesn't get difficult any time soon and Crowder looks solidified as Sam Darnold's No. 1 target.
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Westbrook returns along with Nick Foles, and there's a chance he becomes the No. 1 in Jacksonville as we originally expected. At the very least, I expect Westbrook to be a solid No. 3 wide receiver with PPR upside.
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Slayton has been one of the best rookie receivers so far this season, and his targets exploded in Week 10. He caught 10 out of 14 targets and scored two more touchdowns without Evan Engram. The Giants can't run the ball right now, and Slayton has become the second option in the passing game. That's worth holding through a bye.
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If Tyler Lockett's injury is serious, Gordon could find a significant role catching passes from Russell Wilson.
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DFS Plays
Moore has averaged 10 targets per game over the past month and topped 100 yards in each of his past two games. He's facing a Falcons defense that has surrendered monster numbers all season. The touchdowns will come for Moore, but he's a good value this week even if they don't.
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As with Moore, I'm just going to keep betting on Brown's volume. The Dolphins are just the kind of defense that could give up a pair of bombs in a breakout game for Brown.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | WR | NON PPR FPTS | PPR FPTs |
2 | 1 | Michael Thomas | 16.03 | 25.46 |
1 | 2 | Tyreek Hill | 17.72 | 24.10 |
3 | 3 | Julio Jones | 15.68 | 22.71 |
7 | 4 | DeAndre Hopkins | 12.98 | 21.63 |
8 | 5 | Julian Edelman | 12.47 | 20.57 |
6 | 6 | Cooper Kupp | 13.23 | 19.82 |
5 | 7 | Amari Cooper | 13.61 | 19.49 |
4 | 8 | Mike Evans | 13.77 | 19.37 |
9 | 9 | D.J. Moore | 11.64 | 18.45 |
11 | 10 | John Brown | 11.25 | 17.14 |
12 | 11 | Keenan Allen | 10.75 | 17.12 |
10 | 12 | D.J. Chark | 11.28 | 16.17 |
13 | 13 | Chris Godwin | 10.66 | 16.14 |
14 | 14 | Odell Beckham | 10.47 | 15.87 |
23 | 15 | Allen Robinson | 9.64 | 15.83 |
17 | 16 | Courtland Sutton | 10.21 | 15.45 |
24 | 17 | Christian Kirk | 9.46 | 15.26 |
29 | 18 | Tyler Boyd | 8.85 | 14.99 |
20 | 19 | Jarvis Landry | 9.85 | 14.84 |
19 | 20 | Curtis Samuel | 9.95 | 14.42 |
15 | 21 | Zach Pascal | 10.44 | 14.41 |
16 | 22 | Stefon Diggs | 10.39 | 14.30 |
21 | 23 | Michael Gallup | 9.81 | 14.23 |
27 | 24 | Sammy Watkins | 9.31 | 14.03 |
25 | 25 | Calvin Ridley | 9.35 | 13.94 |
18 | 26 | Tyrell Williams | 10.09 | 13.76 |
22 | 27 | Kenny Golladay | 9.71 | 13.70 |
28 | 28 | DeVante Parker | 8.90 | 13.44 |
34 | 29 | Jamison Crowder | 8.04 | 13.33 |
30 | 30 | Robert Woods | 8.79 | 13.28 |
26 | 31 | Marquise Brown | 9.33 | 12.87 |
38 | 32 | Mohamed Sanu | 7.68 | 12.71 |
33 | 33 | Emmanuel Sanders | 8.15 | 12.34 |
31 | 34 | Terry McLaurin | 8.51 | 12.22 |
39 | 35 | Dede Westbrook | 7.59 | 12.16 |
36 | 36 | Marvin Jones | 7.81 | 12.10 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 11 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
