By Saturday morning you'd sure like to have more information than we do about Alvin Kamara and David Johnson. With no reason to feel any certainty about their status the only responsible thing to do is prepare as if they won't be helping your Fantasy team during Week 8. Here's how I'm handling it.
Johnson's Cardinals and Kamara's Saints face off in an early game on Sunday, so we'll know their status long before lineups lock. Or at least we'll think we do. Johnson was active last week but we know how that worked out. The presence of Alfred Morris makes me think that outcome is less likely in Week 8. If Johnson can't go they have enough backs to leave him inactive. That doesn't mean I'd feel great with him in my lineup.
There's a re-injury risk for both Johnson and Kamara and there's a significant chance they're both sharing more than they were before Week 8 after the way Chase Edmonds and Latavius Murray played. While Kamara would be a must-start if active I'd view Johnson as more of a low-end No. 2, and would prefer Edmonds still.
On Saturday I'm setting my lineups as if Kamara and Johnson are both out. If you're unable to do that comfortably I have some waiver options below that should help.
Week 8 RB Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 8 at this time. Here's what it means:
Ty Johnson becomes the top waiver wire add and a flex this week. J.D. McKissic isn't far behind.
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As long as Kamara is out, you start Murray.
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Brian Hill should get a chance to play alongside Devonta Freeman, but this is not an offense where you want to use the second running back.
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Numbers to know
- 2.8% - Melvin Gordon's broken tackle rate. The only running back with 25 carries and a lower rate is Jon Hilliman. He's currently unemployed.
- 3.8 - Yards after contact per attempt for Gus Edwards. He's just one injury to a 29-year-old running back away from being must-own.
- 10 - Week 10 is when Kareem Hunt is eligible to return for the Browns. Nick Chubb gets the Patriots and a bye between now and then. It might not be a bad time to shop him.
- 53 - Targets for Austin Ekeler. That's the most among running backs and keeps him startable in PPR.
- 10.95 - Yards per target for Miles Sanders, which would be elite for a receiver.
- 15 - Touches for Mark Walton in Week 7. It kind of looks like he's taking over MIami's backfield, and he's been by far their most efficient back.
- 20% - Target share for Tarik Cohen. That's tied with Le'Veon Bell and James White, and behind only Christian McCaffrey. He will probably be more efficient moving forward.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
A lot of it is situational, but McKissic has been far better with the ball in his hands than Johnson this season. He's averaged 7.3 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per target in limited work, and I'd expect he gets at least 30% of the touches on Sunday against the Giants.
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This is a bad matchup, but if you're desperate enough, 15 touches can look pretty good. Besides, I don't believe this is worse than the Bills matchup, and Walton actually ran effectively against them.
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Malcolm Brown is out again and Henderson has an outstanding matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. He received 12 touches last week and that could be enough to make him a solid flex against this defense.
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I don't have any new justification, but Mattison is going to remain at the top of this list because of his situation. He's the clear handcuff to a back who has yet to play 16 games in a season. He's also on a team that strives to be one of the most run-heavy in the league and is averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
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Much like Mattison, Pollard is just one injury away from a featured role in a very good situation. I prefer Mattison because of Cook's injury history, but both Pollard and Mattison need to be rostered virtually everywhere.
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Edwards is looking at 15-20 touches per game with goal-line opportunities if Ingram goes down.
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DFS Plays
This is all dependent on whether Kamara plays, of course, but as of right now Murray looks like the chalk. He earned 32 touches against the Bears last week because the Saints don't have another back they can trust right now. That kind of volume in this offense against the Arizona Cardinals makes Murray a candidate to be the top overall back.
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I presume Lindsay's ownership will fall along with his price after Royce Freeman outperformed him last week. That was not a changing of the guard, Freeman just had the hot hand. I still expect Lindsay will lead this backfield in Week 8 and love the possibility of him breaking a long run on the turf in Indianapolis.
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Heath's Projections
| Non-PPR Rank | PPR | RB | FPTs | PPR FPTs |
| 1 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 24.18 | 30.61 |
| 2 | 2 | Dalvin Cook | 21.89 | 25.08 |
| 5 | 3 | James Conner | 18.65 | 23.85 |
| 4 | 4 | Latavius Murray | 18.84 | 23.54 |
| 3 | 5 | Leonard Fournette | 19.13 | 23.48 |
| 6 | 6 | Saquon Barkley | 18.08 | 22.43 |
| 7 | 7 | Josh Jacobs | 17.59 | 20.02 |
| 8 | 8 | Chris Carson | 16.59 | 19.68 |
| 10 | 9 | Aaron Jones | 15.46 | 19.68 |
| 9 | 10 | Nick Chubb | 15.87 | 18.72 |
| 12 | 11 | Marlon Mack | 14.07 | 16.47 |
| 11 | 12 | Todd Gurley | 14.42 | 16.42 |
| 17 | 13 | Devonta Freeman | 12.32 | 16.41 |
| 13 | 14 | Phillip Lindsay | 13.52 | 16.41 |
| 16 | 15 | Le'Veon Bell | 12.37 | 16.22 |
| 24 | 16 | Austin Ekeler | 10.63 | 15.44 |
| 20 | 17 | Royce Freeman | 12 | 15.44 |
| 18 | 18 | Chase Edmonds | 11.79 | 14.93 |
| 21 | 19 | Jamaal Williams | 11.09 | 14.89 |
| 34 | 20 | James White | 8.81 | 14.86 |
| 15 | 21 | Sony Michel | 13.11 | 14.18 |
| 14 | 22 | Derrick Henry | 13.22 | 14.10 |
| 26 | 23 | David Johnson | 10.30 | 13.72 |
| 22 | 24 | Matt Breida | 10.95 | 13.47 |
| 19 | 25 | Tevin Coleman | 11.77 | 13.24 |
| 23 | 26 | Lesean McCoy | 10.87 | 12.65 |
| 31 | 27 | Melvin Gordon | 9.50 | 11.97 |
| 29 | 28 | David Montgomery | 9.95 | 11.95 |
| 32 | 29 | Duke Johnson | 9.45 | 11.61 |
| 27 | 30 | Frank Gore | 10 | 11.60 |
| 25 | 31 | Jordan Howard | 10.32 | 11.60 |
| 30 | 32 | Ty Johnson | 9.77 | 11.18 |
| 28 | 33 | Carlos Hyde | 10.17 | 10.84 |
| 33 | 34 | J.D. McKissic | 8.88 | 10.56 |
| 44 | 35 | Tarik Cohen | 6.04 | 10.17 |
| 36 | 36 | Devin Singletary | 7.26 | 9.44 |
| 37 | 37 | Joe Mixon | 7.20 | 9.24 |
| 45 | 38 | Kenyan Drake | 5.78 | 9.16 |
| 39 | 39 | Mark Walton | 6.98 | 8.73 |
| 35 | 40 | Adrian Peterson | 7.63 | 8.72 |
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