After the first three weeks of the season you'd have never thought we'd utter the names Keenan Allen and Calvin Ridley in the same rankings discussion. Allen was statistically the best receiver in the NFL while Ridley was coming off a game with one target. A lot has changed since then.
Allen has not scored a touchdown or topped 61 yards since Week 3. Mike Williams and Hunter Henry have taken a larger role in the offens, while the offense as a whole has sputtered. To make things worse, Allen's dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out of practice this week and is seriously threatening his status for Sunday.
Allen is listed as a game-time decision on Sunday and we're still projecting him to play, but I'm not 100% sure I want to start him even if he's active. He has a very difficult matchup against the Bears, and this game has the lowest over-under of the week (41). He's a No. 3 receiver for me, and I'm planning as if I won't have him.
Ridley has touchdowns in four of six games this season and two of his past three. His target volume has been disappointing, but it should improve with the trade of Mohamed Sanu, though he will have to deal with life without Matt Ryan for the first time in his career.
Like Allen, Ridley is a No. 3 receiver, but I feel a lot better about starting him. He has legitimate upside every week, which is more than you can say for a banged-up Allen. I'd sit Allen for Ridley, Mike Williams and even a couple of the waiver-wire guys below in non-PPR.
Week 8 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 8 at this time. Here's what it means:
Stefon Diggs is must-start without Thielen, and Bisi Johnson is an intriguing dart throw.
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Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee both get a boost, and Hopkins should be a true No. 1 again.
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The 49ers aren't throwing the ball enough for anyone other than George Kittle to matter.
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Numbers to Know
- 45.2% - Share of the Jets' air yards for Robby Anderson. You can't trust him this week, but the schedule gets much easier in Week 9 and this type of volume should pay off.
- 17 - Average targeted air yards for DeVante Parker. With Ryan Fitzpatrick back under center, Parker is a weekly boom-or-bust flex with upside.
- 27% - Target share for Dede Westbrook since Week 3. Some near misses are the only thing between him and must-start status. I'm trusting him this week against the Jets.
- 10.4 - Targets per game for Tyler Boyd. He was awful in Week 8, but he still has a career average of 7.9 yards per target, which should make him must-start with this volume.
Matchups that matter
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Waiver Wire Targets
I loved Davis' increased targets in Week 7 and Ryan Tannehill's accuracy when throwing to his receivers. If Delanie Walker misses time, that should only help Davis' target share. It was getting close to quitting time for many Corey Davis' truthers, but there's reason to believe again.
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It's been close enough between Brown and Davis that I don't feel super confident which one is going to be better rest of season. That's also a knock against both of them because it's unlikely they're both useful. They're both No. 3 receivers in Week 8 with significant upside if Tannehill is as good as he looked in Week 7.
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Dorsett was No. 1 on this list before the Patriots traded for Mohamed Sanu. I still think he could be a good flex in Week 8, but I worry about his long-term targets with Sanu in the fold. View him more as a one-week replacement.
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Johnson had a good connection with Mason Rudoph earlier in the season and has an outstanding matchup against the Dolphins. He's a dart throw, but he's my favorite dart throw this week.
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There are rumblings that Brown could sign with a team after the trade deadline. I thought we were done with him for this year, but his upside makes him worth speculating on if you have a bench spot.
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In deeper leagues Hamilton is worth a look just to see what type of target share he gets without Sanders.
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DFS Plays
Thomas has 36 targets over the past three weeks and has been the one elite wide receiver to deliver exactly what we expected from him. In cash games, his floor is as safe as you can find with at least 16.4 PPR points in every game this season.
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When am I going to give up on Tyler Boyd? When he stops averaging double-digit targets per game.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | WR | NON PPR FPTS | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Michael Thomas | 17.95 | 27.18 |
2 | 2 | Chris Godwin | 15.34 | 22.19 |
3 | 3 | DeAndre Hopkins | 12.97 | 20.40 |
4 | 4 | Cooper Kupp | 12.65 | 19.26 |
8 | 5 | Allen Robinson | 12.15 | 18.61 |
13 | 6 | Julian Edelman | 11.27 | 18.36 |
6 | 7 | Julio Jones | 12.22 | 18.17 |
22 | 8 | Tyler Boyd | 10.39 | 17.50 |
7 | 9 | D.J. Chark | 12.17 | 17.12 |
5 | 10 | Stefon Diggs | 12.54 | 17.11 |
11 | 11 | Courtland Sutton | 11.64 | 17.11 |
9 | 12 | Tyler Lockett | 11.70 | 16.74 |
15 | 13 | John Brown | 11.08 | 16.31 |
18 | 14 | Golden Tate | 10.67 | 16.11 |
24 | 15 | T.Y. Hilton | 10.09 | 16.10 |
10 | 16 | Kenny Golladay | 11.69 | 16.07 |
12 | 17 | Mike Evans | 11.56 | 16.06 |
19 | 18 | Dede Westbrook | 10.57 | 16.03 |
16 | 19 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 11.01 | 15.88 |
14 | 20 | Marvin Jones | 11.09 | 15.68 |
17 | 21 | Robert Woods | 10.73 | 15.50 |
23 | 22 | Odell Beckham | 10.30 | 15.20 |
20 | 23 | Terry McLaurin | 10.46 | 15.07 |
21 | 24 | Tyreek Hill | 10.40 | 14.94 |
35 | 25 | Alshon Jeffery | 8.69 | 14.88 |
25 | 26 | Philip Dorsett | 10.07 | 14.87 |
32 | 27 | D.J. Moore | 8.88 | 13.92 |
26 | 28 | Auden Tate | 9.32 | 13.79 |
27 | 29 | Calvin Ridley | 9.26 | 13.66 |
29 | 30 | Mike Williams | 9.18 | 13.45 |
39 | 31 | Larry Fitzgerald | 8.51 | 13.27 |
31 | 32 | Jarvis Landry | 9.03 | 13.24 |
38 | 33 | Keenan Allen | 8.59 | 13.19 |
37 | 34 | Curtis Samuel | 8.60 | 12.86 |
28 | 35 | Brandin Cooks | 9.23 | 12.75 |
34 | 36 | Corey Davis | 8.78 | 12.59 |
41 | 37 | Diontae Johnson | 8.06 | 12.42 |
49 | 38 | Jamison Crowder | 7.06 | 12.31 |
30 | 39 | D.K. Metcalf | 9.07 | 12.10 |
33 | 40 | Kenny Stills | 8.82 | 12.06 |
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