With one week to go before the NFL Draft, I present my annual mock. I am extremely confident in my top pick. I am slightly less confident in the next pick. And so on and so forth.
This is always a fun but difficult exercise, and one that I am very happy to do only once a year. Talking with folks around the league, it seems clear it will be an offense-heavy first round. In my mock, I have five quarterbacks going in the top 10 and no defensive player being selected until pick No. 12.
I have projected three Day 1 trades and surely there will be more, but this mock can only get so unwieldy. To those within the league reading this mock, please feel free to text me how wrong I am like usual.
For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 1
He's been the choice for months now. The Bears have spent enough time with him, and he with them, to make this marriage work. There's no suspense here and I need not write much more.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
The Commanders hired Kliff Kingsbury as their OC for a reason, and Daniels will run his system perfectly. The phrase "dynamic playmaker" is overused in football but use it as much as you want with the Heisman winner.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
There's simply no way in my mind the Patriots move out of this spot and/or don't take a quarterback. The way the offseason has gone -- and the way the last three years have gone -- they have to.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
GM Monti Ossenfort got to enjoy some draft-day trades last year, and he will later in this mock. But he doesn't play here and secures the next Larry Fitzgerald for the Arizona franchise.
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Mock Trade from
Los Angeles Chargers
Round 1 - Pick 5
The Vikings got an extra Day 1 pick to make this exact move. McCarthy is much higher on team boards than he is in the media. He crushed his combine and pre-draft interviews, and Kevin O'Connell will love having a smart winner as his signal-caller.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Next week the Giants could absolutely draft a quarterback with this pick and I wouldn't blink. In this mock, they get who many in the league believe to be the best wide receiver in the draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Some teams have very obvious needs and the Titans are one of them. Alt is the first offensive lineman off the board and he will immediately slot in beside last year's first-round pick, Peter Skoronski, to solidify the left side of the line in front of Will Levis.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
The Washington QB has been rising lately, and I believe he'll be drafted in the first dozen picks no matter what happens next week. The Falcons paid a lot of money to a 36-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury in a deal they can get out of in two years if they must.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
The entire Chicago Bears organization is being reimagined this offseason and GM Ryan Poles gets two franchise-changers in the top nine. Sure, they sent a fourth for Keenan Allen, but he only has this year left on his deal. Odunze with D.J. Moore is a dream for years to come for Caleb Williams.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
One personnel executive called Latham the safest offensive lineman in the draft considering how high his floor is. The Jets remade their offensive line in the last several weeks but reinforcements will be necessary.
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 - Pick 11
New Chargers GM Joe Hortiz agreed to this trade because 1) the Chargers need more cheap players and 2) he's really good at the draft. With Harrison off the board a pick earlier, the Bolts slide down and still pick up an elite pass-catcher at the tight end spot for Jim Harbaugh.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
Every other mock you read will have Turner going to the Falcons at 8. The Broncos need a QB of course, but they can always get Spencer Rattler in the third. Denver badly needs pass-rush help.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Only so many teams can trade up for so many quarterbacks. Here, I have the Raiders being forced to stand pat and drafting the Penn State tackle.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
I could see the Saints being a trade-back candidate in this scenario. But if no one calls, New Orleans takes Fuaga with some uncertainty at their tackle position.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
He can play outside and inside and had great ball production at Alabama. He goes to Indy where he can start Day 1.
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Mock Trade from
Seattle Seahawks
Round 1 - Pick 16
GM Howie Roseman is a regular draft-day-trader-upper, so why would 2024 be any different? Seeing the first corner go off the board, he makes a move quickly to get ahead of Jacksonville and get Mitchell.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
The Jaguars could always move back here but then they'd miss out on a corner. The run on the position started two spots earlier and the Jags don't want to be left out, so they get McKinstry here.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Slightly surprised Verse is available here, but it feels like best player available for Cincy. He can play inside or out for Lou Anarumo.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Sometimes the football gods smile kindly upon you. Aaron Donald retires and L.A. has the best defensive tackle prospect in the draft sitting right there.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
The LSU receiver could easily come off the board earlier than this. But after the Diontae Johnson trade, the Steelers will want to add a receiver. And we know that's a position they draft well.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
The Dolphins are eventually going to have some difficult decisions to make at wide receiver when it comes to those contracts. May as well get prepared for that now with nabbing the fastest receiver in the draft.
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Mock Trade from
Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 - Pick 22
John Schneider is in full control of this draft and he trades back in this mock, as is his wont. Latu's medical concerns have him falling slightly, but Seattle should be very familiar with the former Washington and UCLA pass rusher.
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 - Pick 23
A long-armed tackle who could slide inside if necessary for the Chargers. On Day 1, the Chargers address their top two needs with the trade with Minnesota.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
An obvious need for the Cowboys with an obvious fit in Mims. What he lacks in experience he makes up for in upside.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
This is a very good offensive lineman draft and the Packers need one of them. Guyton played right tackle at Oklahoma but will need some time adjusting to the pros.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
After a strong free agency to retain the group that got them within a drive of the NFC title game, the Bucs address an obvious need with Robinson. The Buccaneers continue to invest in pass rushers high in the draft.
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Mock Trade from
Arizona Cardinals
Round 1 - Pick 27
Here's Ossenfort's Day 1 trade, figuring he can get the same caliber player at pick 34 as he can at 27 -- and then some. New England struck out on receivers in free agency so the Patriots have to be aggressive in surrounding Drake Maye with talent, and they come up to get Mitchell.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Some teams have him as the fifth-best receiver in the draft, and he could very well not be here when Buffalo picks. After the Stefon Diggs trade, it's obvious what Buffalo has to do.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
More teams have DeJean as a safety/nickel than cornerback/nickel. For Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, DeJean can play in a number of different spots.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Baltimore has a lot of holes to fill along its offensive line. Barton has versatility the Ravens can use.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
The Niners are in a great position to take best player available. If they can deal Brandon Aiyuk in the next week, they could always take a receiver.
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Round 1 - Pick 32
Following the L'Jarius Sneed trade, the Chiefs can add to the defensive backfield with Wiggins. This pick may well be up for auction, though.
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