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In seasonal leagues, injuries take a major toll. When someone gets hurt there's a lot of roster shuffling. It can get tough to deal with and makes leagues even tougher to win. Last week was an especially painful week.
But in daily leagues, injuries impact us in a positive way. FanDuelers can use the situation to their advantage by using replacements as bargains. Last week, Le'Veon Bell, Matt Forte, Keenan Allen and Steve Smith were expensive choices. Now they're out. This week, their replacements are very cost-effective, opening the door for some better bargains -- and we are always on the lookout for bargains.
Here are the players who have gone from definite afterthoughts to serious lineup considerations.
DeAngelo Williams, Steelers (vs. OAK) 6,500
Steelers running backs have been delicious for FanDuel entrants all season long and it should keep going in that direction, even without Le'Veon Bell. Remember when Bell was suspended? How'd Williams do then? Pretty good. He has a tough matchup, but he's also landed the lead rushing role for Pittsburgh. It helps greatly that the Steelers have a potent pass attack, opening up space for Williams to glide through for big stats.
Jeremy Langford, Bears (at SD) 6,400
Matt Forte's absence isn't permanent, but he's expected to miss Week 9. That opens the door for Langford to basically claim Forte's role as an every-situation player. The Bears have run the ball on 44.6 percent of their plays this season, and that shouldn't change dramatically, especially against a Chargers run defense that ranks 27th in rush yards allowed.
C.J. Spiller, Saints (vs. TEN) 5,500
New Orleans' backfield lost a key cog when Khiry Robinson got hurt last week. Spiller isn't used in the same way Robinson was, but that doesn't mean he can't pick up some of the slack. He's played 20 snaps each of the last two weeks, and coach Sean Payton still laments the low totals of work he's given Spiller. He could see upward of 30 snaps moving forward, starting with a phenomenal matchup against the Titans bumbling run defense this week.
Kendall Gaskins, 49ers (vs. ATL) 4,800
Carlos Hyde is banged up, Reggie Bush tore his ACL last week and Mike Davis broke his hand. Gaskins isn't the only back at the 49ers disposal but he is the one with the most experience in their offense. He's also their most physical back, capable of plowing for a touchdown just as he did 34 times in college.
Malcom Floyd (6,100) and Steve Johnson (5,400), Chargers (vs. CHI)
Keenan Allen leaves behind an average of 11.1 targets per game. Philip Rivers has been below 34 pass attempts once this season. He's going to keep slinging it and those targets from Allen are going to get dispersed. Even if it's an even split among Floyd, Johnson and all the other skill-position players in San Diego, it affords more opportunities against a particularly average Bears defense.
Delanie Walker (5,500) and Harry Douglas (4,500), Titans (at NO)
Matchups don't get better than against the Saints. With Kendall Wright sidelined, he and his 6.6 targets per game will have to go somewhere else. Walker's going to get a target boost for sure and Douglas has the most experience in the Titans receiving corps.
Marquess Wilson, Bears (at SD) 4,800
We've already seen Wilson play well in games this season without Alshon Jeffery. This time he'll work without Eddie Royal. It should lead to some extra looks from Jay Cutler in what might wind up being a high-scoring shootout.
Let's get to the lineup
We've been in a groove lately, filing two cash-worthy lineups in the FanDuel Sunday Million over the last three weeks. Let's list the recipe for success:
1. Land a quality stack (a quarterback and a pass-catcher in the same lineup) 2. Cherry-pick a defense 3. Look for balance among running back, receiver and tight end spots, but don't pick players everyone is going to chase, unless ... 4. Specifically target players who should return at least three FanDuel points for every 1,000 of salary. For instance, if a player lists for 5,000, his expectation should be 15 FanDuel points or more.
Stack candidates
Expensive stacks I like (over 15,000)
Patriots (vs. Redskins): Tom Brady (9,500) and Rob Gronkowski (8,500)
Patriots (vs. Redskins): Tom Brady (9,500) and Julian Edelman (8,000)
Falcons (at 49ers): Matt Ryan (8,000) and Julio Jones (9,200)
Steelers (vs. Raiders): Ben Roethlisberger (8,300) and Antonio Brown (8,700)
Giants (at Buccaneers): Eli Manning (7,800) and Odell Beckham (9,000)
Broncos (at Colts): Peyton Manning (7,700) and Demaryius Thomas (8,400)
Steelers (vs. Raiders): Ben Roethlisberger (8,300) and Martavis Bryant (6,900)
Bears (at Chargers): Jay Cutler (7,100) and Alshon Jeffery (7,900)
Cheaper stacks I like (under 15,000)
Patriots (vs. Redskins): Tom Brady (9,500) and Brandon LaFell (5,200)
Chargers (vs. Bears): Philip Rivers (8,600) and Antonio Gates (6,000)
Jaguars (at Jets): Blake Bortles (7,600) and Allen Hurns (6,800)
Panthers (vs. Packers): Cam Newton (7,900) and Greg Olsen (6,400)
Buccaneers (vs. Giants): Jameis Winston (6,700) and Mike Evans (7,500)
Saints (vs. Titans): Drew Brees (8,500) and Benjamin Watson (5,700)
Steelers (vs. Raiders): Ben Roethlisberger (8,300) and Heath Miller (5,800)
Chargers (vs. Bears): Philip Rivers (8,600) and Steve Johnson (5,400)
Redskins (at Patriots): Kirk Cousins (6,600) and Jordan Reed (5,700)
Looking for the combo with two-touchdown connection potential, a crummy run game and in a high-scoring game, there are really only a handful of sincere recommendations.
The Eli Manning-Beckham duo worked out amazingly well last week and still fits what we're looking for this week. The Giants' run game is a mess (which is cool because the Bucs run defense is actually worlds better than its accompanying pass defense), and Manning proved last week he can still make Beckham a statistical superstar. Can they combine for 50.4 FanDuel points? That would be the expectation that everyone would have, and make no mistake that these guys will be in a ton of lineups after last week.
Another team that throws like Tarzan, runs like Jane is the Chargers. They'll get the Bears at home and should continue to throw a decent amount if only because their run game isn't clicking. Rivers and Gates have posted 47.3, 42.1 and 31.6 points combined in three games together. For them to be a hit in Week 9 they'll need 43.8 -- that's not asking for too much considering their track record.
I'll admit I'm intrigued by the Redskins stack of Cousins and Reed. To be useful, they'd have to come through for 36.9 points. They decimated that number in their last game (against Tampa Bay) but have been at 29.2 points or less in their five other contests together. And the Roethlisberger-Miller pairing has some appeal because of the matchup, though it would take a lot for them to tally a combined 42.3 points (they had 41 in Week 2, way less since).
I'm taking the Chargers stack for two reasons: One, I think it doesn't have too much risk. The Bears struggle against physical pass catchers and Gates is the most physical guy the Chargers have. Two, I don't think there will be a ton of people on Rivers, particularly after the weeks Drew Brees and Eli Manning had. Gates is a different story, but then again, our fellow owners will also dig into Benjamin Watson and Rob Gronkowski. I think I'm just barely skimming past the line of popular players by getting into Rivers and Gates.
Running backs
Popular picks I like
Devonta Freeman (at SF) 8,900
Mark Ingram (vs. TEN) 7,700
Chris Ivory (vs. JAC) 7,500
Dion Lewis (vs. WAS) 7,400
DeAngelo Williams (vs. OAK) 6,500
Not-as-popular picks I like
DeMarco Murray (at DAL) 7,500
Doug Martin (vs. NYG) 7,100
Ronnie Hillman (at IND) 6,400
LeGarrette Blount (vs. WAS) 6,400
I'm picky. With my newfound interest in finding players who can only return three-times value, there just aren't a lot of running backs worth a lineup spot.
Would you believe that the first back to get my click was Blount? The Redskins run defense has gone from great to ghastly, and team after team has loaded up their run games against them. At a cheap price, Blount is a pretty good pick to deliver triple value (19.2) as he's come through with numbers way better than that when called upon to shoulder a big chunk of the workload. Note: If you go with Blount, you have to hope for two touchdowns. Washington hasn't allowed multiple rushing touchdowns to a back yet this season, though they haven't played the Patriots either.
Going cheap with Blount gives us more wiggle room elsewhere in the lineup. Freeman could rock the 49ers for a ton of yards and touchdowns, but he's going to do it to the tune of 26.7 points? He once did that for four straight weeks and could come up with 30 touches against the Niners to do it again. But Martin's matchup against the Giants is a little bit safer. The Giants run defense remains a mess and Martin is still getting plenty of work from game to game. He'll need just 21.3 points on FanDuel to be worth starting. He came close to that amount two games ago and exceeded it in three and four games ago. I'll take advantage of the price tag and the lack of popularity and get him in my lineup.
Tight ends
Popular picks I like
Greg Olsen (vs. GB) 6,400
Antonio Gates (vs. CHI) 6,000
Benjamin Watson (vs. TEN) 5,700
Not-as-popular picks I like
Heath Miller (vs. OAK) 5,800
Jordan Reed (at NE) 5,700
Charles Clay (vs. MIA) 5,700
Delanie Walker (at NO) 5,500
Jacob Tamme (at SF) 5,200
This week is better than last week at tight end. You already know I'm going with Gates, but there's a really awesome second choice in Tamme. He has been the de facto No. 2 receiver with Leonard Hankerson out, one who has picked up a lot of targets from Ryan. It will take 15.6 FanDuel points for him to be worthwhile but he should end up getting close to that amount.
Defense
Before I bust my budget on receivers, I want to find the defense I want the most. That's simple. I want the one who will take on the walking stick of dynamite known as Blaine Gabbert. I want the defense faced with the task of slowing down the three-headed monster of Pierre Thomas, Shaun Draughn and Kendall Gaskins. I want the Falcons at 4,900. Yes, it's going to be tough to ask of them to somehow contain Gabbert and his running backs. Everyone knows Gabbert is headed for the Hall of Fame and that Thomas, Draughn and Gaskins are right up there with Emmitt, Barry and Walter. But, darn it, I will still roll with the Falcons -- hopefully they drop the hammer on the Niners just as I dropped a plastic container full of sarcasm on your eyeballs.
Cheap-o defense alternative: New Orleans (4,200)
Kicker
The usual shpiel: You want a kicker on a good offense capable of moving the ball against a weak defense.
Wide receivers
Popular picks I like
Odell Beckham (at TB) 9,000
Antonio Brown (vs. OAK) 8,700
Julian Edelman (vs. WAS) 8,000
Alshon Jeffery (at SD) 7,900
Amari Cooper (at PIT) 7,300
Michael Crabtree (at PIT) 5,800
Not-as-popular picks I like
Demaryius Thomas (at IND) 8,400
Brandon Marshall (vs. JAC) 8,100
Mike Evans (vs. NYG) 7,500
Martavis Bryant (vs. OAK) 6,900
Allen Hurns (at NYJ) 6,800
Rishard Matthews (at BUF) 6,500
Eric Decker (vs. JAC) 6,300
Steve Johnson (vs. CHI) 5,400
Corey Brown (vs. GB) 4,700
Harry Douglas (at NO) 4,500
Among the popular picks, you're point-chasing if you go with Beckham, Edelman, Jeffery or Crabtree. Not that it's a bad thing, just keep in mind the triple-value expectation before you select any of those guys.
My first pick is on the cheap side. The Jaguars are coming off a bye and right into the waiting arms of an angry Jets defense, fresh off of an embarrassing loss in Oakland. No one doubts that Darrelle Revis will line up across from Allen Robinson, effectively eliminating him from the game plan. That's going to open up Allen Hurns for a lot of targets and, hopefully, one of his best days of the season. Not many entries will have Hurns in their lineups but even with big expectations (he needs 20.4 FanDuel points to be considered a hit) he's worth a shot as the Jaguars figure to play from behind. Also, at 6,800, he gives the lineup even more wiggle room.
My second pick is also on the cheap side. The Raiders' cross-country trip could wreak some havoc with their offense but one constant has been the involvement of Michael Crabtree. I'm seduced by his cheap price -- 5,800 -- which means he needs a measly 17.4 to be good for my roster. He beat that number last week, came close the week before at San Diego and had his best game of the year (21.6 points) in a shootout with the Ravens back in Week 2. The game with the Steelers should also be high scoring.
This leaves me with 9,800 in cap space and a very, very easy choice for my last receiver spot. Odell Beckham played like a beast last week and should again this week. The weakness of the Bucs defense is their secondary and their pass rush is also down a key figure in Jacquies Smith. Going with Manning and Beckham will be trendy -- I'll go against it and just take Beckham. He will be vital to my lineup's success -- if he doesn't give me 27-plus points, I'm sunk. I think the hot-shot receiver can do it.
Lineup check
Here's my tournament lineup for Week 9:
Philip Rivers (vs. CHI) 8,600
Doug Martin (vs. NYG) 7,100
LeGarrette Blount (vs. WAS) 6,400
Odell Beckham (at TB) 9,000
Allen Hurns (at NYJ) 6,800
Michael Crabtree (at PIT) 5,800
Antonio Gates (vs. CHI) 6,000
Nick Folk (vs. JAC) 4,600
Falcons Defense (at SF) 4,900
It's not quite as balanced as I'd like, but I do think we can get at least 180 points out of this crew -- and maybe more -- to have our third cash in four weeks.
