With six teams in a bye there's definitely some scrambling happening at the quarterback position. Thankfully, it looks like we're getting a pair of stars back in Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes. Ryan is supposed to return after his bye and Mahomes practiced in full all week after missing two games with his knee injury. Now we have to decide if we can trust them in their first games back.
The first, and easy, one is Mahomes. He's back, so you start him. We have yet to see him healthy this season with his full complement of weapons, yet he was still a top-four quarterback for the first six weeks of the season. Even with his difficult matchup against the Titans, you should start him over everyone but Lamar Jackson. I project Mahomes for 327 passing yards and around 2.5 touchdowns.
Ryan is a slightly more difficult choice. He was just behind Mahomes as QB No. 5 through the first six weeks and he's on the road against a good defense like Mahomes. The Saints have allowed plenty of Fantasy production to quarterbacks however, and Russell Wilson hung 45 on them in their building.
While Ryan is no Mahomes, he's still probably a starter for you. There's no one available on the waiver wire that I'm streaming over him. But I would start Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford over him if you have to make that choice. I project Ryan for 326 passing yards, a pair of scores, and at least one turnover.
Not fortunate enough to have one of these signal callers? I have three streaming options below who rank inside my top 18 for Week 10.
Week 10 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 32.6 - Pass attempts per game for Russell Wilson. That's up 26% over 2018 and is a big part of the reason he's the No. 1 quarterback. The 49ers present his biggest challenge yet.
- 1,240 - Air yards tossed by Matthew Stafford the past three weeks. That's the most in the NFL by 230 yards. The Lions probably won't air it out quite as much with Jeff Driskel.
- 10.8 - Average intended air yards per attempt for Jameis Winston this season, more than any other starting quarterback.
- 637 - Rushing yards for Lamar Jackson. He's on pace to smash the quarterback rushing record. He's also on pace to throw for more than 3,600 yards.
- 9.3% - Sack rate for Sam Darnold this season. Even against a great matchup like the Giants, it's tough to trust him.
- 84% - On-target rate for Dak Prescott. It's even more impressive because of how much more often he's looking downfield this season.
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Waiver Wire Targets
In his three starts this season, Tannehill has thrown for 836 yards and six touchdowns. Only three quarterbacks have scored more Fantasy points since he became the starter. This Chiefs defense has improved but isn't near as stingy on the road as at Arrowhead.
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Jones couldn't hold on to the ball on Monday night against the Cowboys, but things get much easier in Week 10 against the Jets. They've surrendered 29 Fantasy points in back-to-back weeks to Gardner Minshew and Ryan Fitzpatrick. I liked him more before the Evan Engram news, but he should still be serviceable.
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I don't have a ton of faith in Hoyer, but it is the Dolphins and he did throw three touchdowns last week.
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It's not easy to stash a quarterback, but he's taking his job back from Gardner Minshew after the bye. He has good weapons and a great schedule.
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DFS Plays
Jackson has a 15% edge on everyone else in my quarterback projections this week. The Bengals can't stop the run or the pass and Jackson should take advantage of both, but he's not one of those quarterbacks with whom you necessarily want to stack receivers.
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I don't think anyone is actually concerned by Rodgers, but the presence of Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston and Kyler Murray on the slate should keep his ownership down. We know he has way too much upside to be contrarian, so take advantage when he is.
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Heath's projections
Rank | QB | FPTs |
1 | Lamar Jackson | 30.47 |
2 | Patrick Mahomes | 29.13 |
3 | 26.96 | |
4 | 26.61 | |
5 | Jameis Winston | 26.02 |
6 | Dak Prescott | 25.10 |
7 | Matthew Stafford | 24.62 |
8 | Kyler Murray | 24.09 |
9 | Russell Wilson | 24.05 |
10 | 24.00 | |
11 | Matt Ryan | 23.57 |
12 | 22.72 | |
13 | 22.19 | |
14 | 22.13 | |
15 | 21.89 | |
16 | 21.82 | |
17 | 21.23 | |
18 | 20.52 | |
19 | 19.99 | |
20 | 19.73 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 10 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
