Fantasy Football Today: Rachaad White finally breaks out and more Week 9 winners and losers

Rachaad White still worthy of RB1 designation for now

C.J. Stroud is clearly one of the biggest winners of the week. The rookie Texans quarterback delivered a historic performance on Sunday. Fellow rookie Tank Dell also had a monster game as he registered six catches for 114 yards and two touchdowns, staking his claim as a Week 9 winner as well. We went into Stroud in depth in this morning's edition of the Fantasy Football Today newsletter (subscribe below), and you can read more about it here. We also broke down the biggest injuries that matter for Fantasy, including what in the world the Giants are going to do now that Daniel Jones is set to join Tyrod Taylor on injured reserve.

Here, we're going to dive into more of the biggest winners and losers from Sunday. They include a much-maligned Fantasy running back having the best performance at this position so far this week, and the one Texan that may come away from Stroud's record day as a loser. Let's get into them all below.

Week 9 Fantasy winners

Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers

The concern with White has been that, though he opened the season as the clear lead back for the Buccaneers, it might be tough for him to hang on to his RB1 designation if he didn't play well. So far, at least, that really hasn't been a concern, even with the team's complement of running backs behind him healthy now. White continues to not be particularly efficient as a runner, but he still got 20 carries Sunday, rushing for 73 yards and a pair of scores. What's surely helping his case is that White continues to be terrific as a pass-catcher, hauling in all four passes thrown his way Sunday for 46 yards. His four receptions resulted in 27.9 PPR points Sunday. White may eventually lose his job – he is still averaging just 3.4 YPC – but it doesn't seem like it'll happen anytime soon. He's a fringe RB1 based on volume, especially in the passing game, and it sure doesn't look like that's going to change. 

Aaron Jones, RB, Packers

There was a lot of talk this week about Jones being back to full health and ready to take on a bigger workload, and it wasn't just talk this time. Jones didn't have a particularly efficient day, but he made up for that with volume, rushing 20 times for 73 yards and a touchdown. He also caught four of six passes for 26 yards. For comparison's sake, Jones had just 25 carries and 10 catches in his first four games combined as he suffered, then recovered, then suffered again from a hamstring injury. I don't think you can expect Jones to get 20-plus touches every week, and he's still stuck in what looks like a mediocre-at-best offense, but this is the first time all season there was really a gap between Jones' and AJ Dillon's usage, and that should happen every week as long as he's healthy. He's a vastly superior player compared to Dillon. 

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts

There's something kind of funny about the Colts finally unleashing Taylor as the lead back in what was probably his least impressive game in nearly a month, but hey, I won't complain. I've been expecting the Colts to fully unleash Taylor for a few weeks, and it finally looks like they were ready to, with Taylor playing 43 of 57 snaps and out-touching Zack Moss 22-7. The most exciting thing might have been the passing game usage, as Taylor ran routes on 21 of 28 dropbacks, which helped lead to what ended up being a very important early touchdown for his Fantasy day. I don't know if the split will be this pronounced every week, but it probably wouldn't be a bad idea. As good as Moss has been for the Colts this season, Taylor is simply a much more explosive back, and he's built for huge workloads. He might be a top-five RB the rest of the way now. 

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys

To a certain extent, there's an element of "dog bites man" to Lamb having a huge performance. But there was some pretty loud grumbling in the Fantasy world around Lamb's production over the first month or so of the season that has definitely quieted. He had more than 53 yards just twice in the first five games of the season. The Cowboys found themselves consistently playing in weird game scripts – none of their first five games were decided by fewer than 12 points. In more competitive games over the past three weeks, Lamb has 117, 158, and 191 yards, with a career-high in consecutive games now. As it turns out, Lamb is still right there with the best at the position in terms of upside. It was nice to get that reminder. 

Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders

There's a part of me that wants to make the argument for Dotson as a sell-high candidate, and I may do that later in the week when we look for trade targets. For now, I don't want to rain too much on his parade, because while Dotson has benefited from massive volume over the past two weeks, it's also true that he wasn't performing well even in positive game scripts early in the season. Which is to say, we'll take the wins when we can get them. I'm not convinced that Dotson's recent run of 12 catches for 177 yards and two touchdowns over the past two games means he's going to live up to all the preseason hype. I would still rather have Terry McLaurin the rest of the way but Dotson certainly needs to be rostered in all leagues, and that's not something we were saying even nine days ago. 

Taysom Hill, TE, Saints

Hill had another terrific game for Fantasy Sunday, but I'm still not quite sure what to make of him. He accounted for a couple of touchdowns Sunday. One was a three-yard touchdown pass, while the other was a two-yard reception. His touchdown catch was one of four catches for Hill for just 13 yards, and he ran just 13 routes, as Juwan Johnson's return has definitely pushed him away from the true TE role he played for a couple of weeks in Johnson's absence. That leads me to believe that his Fantasy success is probably unsustainable, just like it ended up being last season when he had a few similar games.

On the other hand, Hill genuinely seems to be the solution to the Saints' well-documented red zone issues, and he also had 11 carries for 52 yards on Sunday, one week after he had nine carries for 63 yards. There are surely going to be weeks when the Saints don't have those goal-line opportunities. There will also be weeks where we'll see defenses focus more on slowing him down near the goal-line, and I'm not sure Hill has much appeal if he isn't scoring touchdowns. However, he is more involved in the passing game as a receiver this season, and that should help. I think in the end, he remains a touchdown-based TE starter, but I do think this might be a bit more sustainable than it was last season. 

Week 9 Fantasy losers

Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks

When we talk about regression in Fantasy Football, we're usually talking about something like Gus Edwards' recent stretch where he has six touchdowns on 38 carries over the past two games -- statistical outliers that almost certainly won't be sustainable in the long run. That's the more purely luck-driven version of regression, where players just outperform their level of play, their context, their touches, etc. It's a pretty strong bet that Edwards won't score a touchdown once every seven or so carries the rest of the season. NFL history tells us that even the very best running backs in the very best offenses can't do that. When LaDainian Tomlinson scored an NFL-record 28 rushing touchdowns in 2006, he scored once every 12.4 carries.

But there's another type of regression that we don't tend to talk about quite as much, and that's the kind we're seeing from Smith. In 2022, Smith had a 5.2% touchdown rate and 7.5 yards per attempt, which are pretty standard numbers from a good NFL QB, and that's what he played like. Whether you were a film-cruncher or a stats nerd, the conclusion was pretty clear: Geno Smith really played that well last season.

But the thing is, what if Smith just ran hot for a year? Not in a way that suggests last year was an undeserved fluke or anything – again, he actually played that well last season. In that way, it wasn't a fluke. But the problem is, now he just isn't playing as well, and that might represent its own version of regression – Smith's talent level is regressing. He just hasn't been anywhere near as impressive as last season, and now he's down to a 7.1 Y/A and 3.6% touchdown rate. I still expect him to play better than that moving forward, but I'm not sure it's fair to expect him to play that well again. 

Jerome Ford, RB, Browns

I'm genuinely struggling with Ford, who has a strong workload, plus athleticism, and a demonstrated ability to hit on big plays. He is one of just three running backs with two carries of at least 60 yards this season. Those are, generally, traits we're looking for from running backs. The problem is -- I'm just not sure he's good. For example: Breece Hall and De'Von Achane, the other two backs with multiple 60-plus-yard carries, are averaging 5.7 and 12.1 yards per carry, respectively; Ford is at 3.97. If he's going to get 20 carries and seven targets every week like he did Sunday, it really doesn't matter if he's good, because Ford is going to be Fantasy relevant no matter what. And I'm not sure Kareem Hunt or Pierre Strong are any better, so there might not be much to be gained from going away from Ford. But man, he needs to be better, especially in what might be a mediocre offense with a bad offensive line (the Browns lost left tackle Jedrick Wills to a serious-looking injury Sunday, and they're already beat up across the line). 

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, WR, Rams

So … Brett Rypien is a problem, and not in a positive way "the kids" mean it. He had a couple of early fumbles, and the Rams just clearly did not trust him, dropping back to pass just 12 times on 28 first-half snaps before they went down by multiple scores in the second half. Rypien completed just 13 of 28 passes, with Kupp and Nacua combining for five catches for 80 yards. The Rams are on a bye in Week 10. Let's just hope Matthew Stafford's thumb is healthy enough to play by the time they come back in Week 11 – something Sean McVay wouldn't commit to Sunday, unfortunately. 

Nico Collins, WR, Texans

One thing that has become abundantly clear about the Texans' offense is they definitely don't have a No. 1 WR. The Fantasy community can grumble and moan about it all we want, but we probably just have to accept it. Collins can still be good for Fantasy, but there are going to be weeks, like Week 9, where he needs to find the end zone to have a good game. He had an excellent game on Sunday, so no complaints here. But the idea that Collins is going to consistently earn targets on more than, say, 20% of Stroud's throws just doesn't seem realistic, given how they've spread the ball around and given Collins' downfield-oriented route tree. Collins might just be more like a Mike Williams/Gabe Davis type than the true, high-volume superstar he looked like early on. 

Gabe Davis, WR, Bills

One of the key things I wanted to keep an eye on in Week 9 was how the Bills used Davis, because his role changed dramatically in Week 8 in a way we'd never really seen before. Rather than just lining him up on the outside and using him almost exclusively on downfield routes, the Bills moved Davis around the formation and hit him on quick, short passes, and he looked like a much more interesting Fantasy option as a result. Unfortunately, that usage didn't continue into Week 9, as he was targeted just twice, both on passes that traveled at least 15 yards down the field. Davis did almost score a touchdown, but the hope last week was that he might be in a role where he didn't have to hit on 50-50 balls every week to be worth using. That's not what we saw Sunday, which means we can probably write it off as a fluke. Davis remains a coin-flip bet as a WR3.

Michael Thomas, WR, Saints

Through everything, the one thing we've been able to count on with Thomas has been volume. Even in a season where he hasn't been all that good, Thomas still had at least seven targets and at least four catches in seven of eight games entering Week 9. Sunday, even that evaporated, as he was targeted just once on 26 routes run. That projectable volume kept Thomas in my WR3 range most weeks, despite iffy efficiency and just one touchdown on 61 targets. Coming off a game like this, however, where the Saints made a notable effort to get Chris Olave involved in the quick passing game, I'm not sure how you can justify Thomas as anything more than a WR4 in PPR, even with a lot of players on bye in Week 10.