It's Week 17 in the NFL, which means the playoff picture will soon be finalized, leaving 12 teams to compete for a Super Bowl victory. Here are the storylines you need to know before Sunday kickoff.
1. Who are the spoilers this week? The NFL got just what they wanted when they elected to make Week 17 nothing but division games, and 11 of those games have playoff implications, which makes for compelling TV. Mark my words: There are "spoilers" out there that would like nothing more than to ruin an opposing team's playoff hopes, or at least alter playoff seeding.
Last week, we all witnessed the Ravens, with nothing to play for but pride, knock their hated rivals Pittsburgh right out of the playoff picture with one week to go. In Week 17, there will be another spoiler or two (or more).
Will it be the Bills at home against the Jets, or the Browns pouring it on the Steelers to decide the No. 6 seed in the AFC? Will it be the Dolphins shocking the Patriots as hosts, or the Philip Rivers-led Chargers over the Broncos to determine the No. 1 seed? If the Broncos lose, will it also be the Raiders ending the AFC West title dreams of the Chiefs? How about the Ravens once again playing spoiler against the Bengals to keep them from getting a much-needed first-round bye, or the Bucs up-ending the Panthers to take away home-field advantage? Will it be the Jaguars defeating the Texans and leaving the door slightly ajar for the Colts, or the Titans finally closing out the AFC South with a win in Indianapolis? Believe this: a few spoilers will prevail.
2. The Rex Ryan Super Bowl: Rex likes to talk, and he guaranteed a postseason run for the Bills after being hired, but it will not happen. New Yorkers are used to the Ryan "guarantees" but the Bills fans drank the Kool-Aid and are very disappointed. Now the Jets come to town, and this has revenge written all over it.
Check out these numbers from the last four times the Jets and Bills have met on the field: Buffalo has a four-game winning streak on the line, and they have outscored the Jets 140-57 in those games. Also, the Jets have turned the ball over 15 times during that stretch, while the Bills haven't turned it over at all, and Buffalo has scored 56 points off turnovers (the Jets obviously haven't scored at all off a turnover). By the way, Rex was the head coach of three of those Jets teams in that dominant run by the Bills over the last four games.
3. Are the Broncos Osweiler's team? Brock Osweiler has already beaten the Patriots and Bengals this season, and a final win over the Chargers could solidify his spot as the starter throughout the playoffs. It's a non-issue if Peyton Manning never is "100 percent," but I think it will be a story before the playoffs are over. The last time Denver played San Diego, Osweiler had 166 passing yards; he probably needs to play better this time.
4. Clean up the fourth quarter: I worry about playoff teams that give up points in the fourth quarter. Playoff quarterbacks are resilient, and comebacks are part of what get teams into the postseason. Here's a list of the 12 teams presently in the playoffs, along with their points surrendered in the fourth quarter:
- Washington, 109
- Carolina, 105
- New England, 94
- Denver, 92
- Seattle, 91
- Arizona, 90
- Minnesota, 89
- Cincinnati, 86
- Kansas City, 80
- New York Jets, 71
- Houston, 58
- Green Bay, 51
5. The last audition: A number of quarterbacks that could be facing the prospect of being out of work will get one final week to demonstrate their talents. Ryan Mallett (Ravens), Case Keenum (Rams), Kellen Moore (Cowboys), Zack Mettenberger (Titans), Blaine Gabbert (49ers) and A.J. McCarron (Bengals) all have another opportunity to prove they belong in the NFL, and in some cases earn a starting job. I'll bet at least two of these guys get a win.
6. Things you might want to know: The Falcons defense held their last two opponents to a total of 30 points, but Drew Brees has 11 touchdown passes and one interception in the last four weeks. Tyrod Taylor has been sacked eight times in his last two games. Cam Newton has 41 rushing touchdowns in his career and is two away from the record of 43 by Steve Young. Matt Forte has one performance of 100 rushing yards in 11 games against the Lions. Kirk Cousins is the No. 2 red-zone QB in the league with a QB rating of 118 and a 68 percent completion rate. Denver's defense puts opponents in the longest third-down situations in the league. Green Bay is 4-5 in their last nine games.
