Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
The game between the Steelers and Colts last night marked the final NFL game of November, and I'm not sure if it's just me, but I feel like this season is going by really fast. However, that might also have to do with the fact that I drink seven cups of coffee per day. That's healthy for you, right?
There were only four NFL teams that went undefeated in the month of November -- Kansas City, Cincinnati, Miami, San Francisco -- and in a fun twist, those teams will be opening up December by facing each other with Chiefs at Bengals and Dolphins at 49ers both happening this week.
If you're wondering who's going to win those games, you won't have to wonder much longer because we're going to be handing out some NFL picks today, plus we'll be taking a look at Prisco's Power Rankings and dissecting the Steelers' win over the Colts.
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get them to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Alright, let's get to the rundown.
1. Today's show: Recapping the Steelers' win over the Colts
With two struggling teams going at it on Monday night, I wasn't really expecting an exciting game, but that's exactly what we got with the Steelers beating the Colts 24-17 in a game that went down to the wire.
Following the Steelers' win, Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson and I spent 35 minutes talking about the game and a good chunk of that was spent dissecting the Colts' clock mismanagement at the end of the game. Here are three key things from the game that we covered during the pod:
Colts' clock management gets an 'F.' Jeff Saturday's total lack of coaching experience finally cost the Colts and it happened because he botched the team's clock management down the stretch. Although the Colts were trailing 24-17 late in the game, they seemed to be in a good spot after driving down to Pittsburgh's 33 with 95 seconds left and all three timeouts. Here's what happened next:
- First down at PIT 33: Matt Ryan got sacked for a 7-yard loss and it would have made sense to call a timeout to allow the offense to regroup AND to save some time, but no timeout was called and 18 seconds ran off before Indy ran its next play.
- Second down at PIT 40: On second-and-17, Ryan scrambled for 14 yards. He probably could have gotten the first down (You can see the video here), but he decided to take a dive instead of taking a hit. After the run, the Colts could have once again called a timeout, but instead, they let 17 more seconds burn off the clock. Total time wasted: 35 seconds.
- Third down at PIT 26: With the clock running, the Colts seem rushed to get a play off and once they eventually got the ball snapped, Jonathan Taylor got stuffed for no gain on third-and-3. If they had called a timeout prior to this play, they could have stopped the clock AND regrouped to think about a better play call here.
- Fourth down: Matt Ryan threw up a prayer to Parris Campbell even though the Colts only needed 3 yards. The Colts ended the game with two unused timeouts and someone should probably let Saturday know that these don't carry over to Indy's next game.
Steelers defense made some big stops. The Steelers defense has been playing solid football since the return of T.J. Watt and this game was no different. For one, the Steelers did a solid job of slowing down Jonathan Taylor and getting after Matt Ryan, who was sacked three times. The defense also came up with several big plays including two turnovers. One of those turnovers was a pivotal fumble recovery in the second half that came after Indy had driven down to Pittsburgh's 1-yard line.
Kenny Pickett looks better every week. When the Steelers gave the starting job to Kenny Pickett, this was the kind of game they wanted to see from him. Picket was accurate, he played mistake-free football, and he hit nine different receivers on a night where he completed 20 of 28 passes for 174 yards. He also got some serious help from Benny Snell, who averaged more than 5 yards per carry while filling in for an injured Najee Harris. With the Steelers at 4-7, this season isn't about getting to the playoffs anymore, it's about finding out if Pickett can be the QB of the future in Pittsburgh and so far, they have to feel good about his progress.
We talked about those three things, plus everything else you could possibly want to know about Monday's game. If you want to listen to the rest of our recap, be sure to click here. You can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here.
2. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 13
For the second straight week, the Chiefs and Eagles are the top-two teams in Pete Prisco's Power Rankings and since Prisco is never wrong about anything, I'm guessing we should go ahead and assume those will be the two teams in the Super Bowl. Actually, Prisco's wrong a lot, so they might not be the last two teams standing.
Anyway, let's take a look at his top five for the week:
Dropped out: Titans
I'm not going to spoil the rest of the power rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since last week:
- The biggest jump this week went to the Cleveland Browns. After watching Jacoby Brissett outduel Tom Brady, Prisco moved them up eight spots from 25th to 17th. Although Brissett won on Sunday, he'll be headed to the bench this week with Deshaun Watson finally returning to the field after serving an 11-game suspension. The Jaguars also moved up eight spots -- from 28th to 20th -- following their wild win over the Ravens.
- The biggest jump in the NFC went to the Commanders. Following their win over the Falcons, Prisco bumped them up five spots from 18th overall to 13th. The Commanders have won three straight games and they're looking like a serious playoff contender.
- The biggest drop this week went to Tennessee. Apparently, Prisco wasn't impressed with the Titans even though they only lost by four to his eighth-ranked team (Bengals). Following the loss, Prisco dropped them five spots to 10th.
- As for the bottom of the rankings, the Texans are in the cellar this week, and I'm starting to think they might be down there for the rest of the season. If the Texans can't beat the Browns on Sunday, they might not win another game.
If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything.
If you want more rankings, we also ranked the top playoff contenders in both the AFC (click here) and the NFC (check it out here).
3. Breech's Week 13 picks: Underdogs take over the NFL this week
If it's Tuesday, that can only mean one thing: It's time for my weekly picks.
I should warn you beforehand that I decided to get a little crazy with my picks this week. There are 15 games being played in the NFL in Week 13 and I'm picking the underdog to win in five of them. Could this totally blow up in my face? Yes.
Here are three of my picks for Week 13:
- Titans (+5.5) at Eagles (1 p.m. ET, CBS): If you could design a team to beat the Eagles, it would probably be the Titans. The Eagles love to turn the ball, but that won't be easy against a Titans team that has had the best run defense in the NFL against the run since Week 2. Defensively, the Eagles biggest weakness is stopping the run and that's not a weakness you want to have when you're about to face Derrick Henry. PICK: Titans 23-20 over Eagles.
- Browns at Texans (+7) (1 p.m. ET, CBS): By the time this game kicks off, Deshaun Watson will have gone 700 days without playing in an NFL game. I don't know how hard it is to shake off 700 days of rust, but it can't be easy. I feel like the Texans really want to beat Watson and I feel like this game will be closer than most people think. PICK: Browns 21-17 over Texans.
- Dolphins (+3.5) at 49ers (4:05 p.m. ET, Fox): Mike McDaniel spent five years with the 49ers before being hired as the Dolphins coach and you can tell, because he's essentially built the Dolphins to be the AFC version of the 49ers. The 49ers have struggled against good teams this year and the Dolphins are a good team. PICK: Dolphins 27-24 over 49ers.
To check out the rest of my picks for Week 13, be sure to click here.
4. NFL Week 12 overreactions and reality checks
Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL in Week 12 to decide if we're all overreacting.
Statement: The Jets should stick with Mike White.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "White did more than enough to win the starting quarterback job for the rest of the season, finishing 22 of 28 for 315 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions (149.3 rating) in a blowout win over the Bears. The Jets' passing game works more efficiently with White in there. He has to remain the starting quarterback if this team is going to have a chance to make a run to the playoffs."
Statement: The Bengals will win the AFC North.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "The Bengals rallied from an 0-2 start to get to 7-4 through 11 games, but they still have a tough schedule ahead over the next couple weeks. The Bengals have the NFL's fourth-most difficult remaining strength of schedule. The Ravens have the easiest remaining schedule, which will include playing just one game against a team that's currently .500 or better over the final six weeks and that's the Bengals in Week 18. Advantage: Baltimore. Since the Ravens currently have the division tiebreaker, they have the edge."
Statement: Steve Wilks should be the Panthers head coach in 2023.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The Panthers are 3-4 under Wilks, no longer showing they are one of the worst franchises in the league like they were in the Matt Rhule era. Even with three different starting quarterbacks, the Panthers defense has held opposing offenses to 15 points or less in four of those games. Carolina is in the early stages of a rebuild and might be doing the same in 2023. In an NFC South that's winnable next year, why not go with Wilks? The Panthers are clearly competitive under him."
There are plenty more overreactions from Week 12, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here.
5. Pro Bowl voting: Justin Jefferson has more votes than anyone
The Pro Bowl is undergoing a major change this year. Instead of a standard NFL game, the Pro Bowl will be a week long celebration that will include multiple events. The week in Las Vegas will conclude on the Sunday before the Super Bowl with a flag football game between the AFC and NFC. Although a lot will be changing, one thing that won't be changing is the fact that fans around the NFL can still vote their favorite players into the Pro Bowl.
The first voting numbers were released on Monday and Justin Jefferson was at the top.
Here's a list of the top five Pro Bowl vote-getters through Nov. 28:
1. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson: 90,313
2. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: 87,384
3. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: 85,785
4. Giants RB Saquon Barkley: 83,947
5. Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: 83,576
I'm not saying there should be a recount, but where is Joe Burrow on this list? I voted for him at least 90,000 times. He should definitely be in the top five.
As for other positions, there are some fascinating nuggets to share:
- The NFC quarterback with the most votes isn't Tom Brady or Dak Prescott. That honor actually belongs to GENO SMITH, who has racked up just over 70,000 votes so far.
- One surprise so far is that in both the NFC and AFC, a rookie is leading the vote at cornerback. In the AFC, the Jets' Sauce Gardner currently has the most votes among all corners while Seattle's Tariq Woolen holds that honor in the NFC.
- The Ravens and Chiefs currently have the most players leading the vote at their position with five each.
Fan voting for the Pro Bowl will run through Dec. 15. The fan vote counts one-third toward determining the final roster with players and coaches also voting. Players and coaches will have until Dec. 16 to turn in their ballot. Pro Bowl rosters will then be announced Dec. 20. The flag football game will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Feb. 5. In the week leading up to the game, players will be able to participate in multiple skills' competitions.
6. Rapid-fire roundup: Chiefs set to add Melvin Gordon
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Chiefs planning to sign Melvin Gordon. Less than a week after being cut by the Broncos, it appears Gordon already has a new team lined up. According to multiple reports, the Chiefs are planning to add Gordon to their practice squad. If Gordon can get his fumbling problem under control, this is a low-risk move for Kansas City that could come with a high reward.
- Mike White to start for Jets. In news that won't shock anyone, Jets coach Robert Saleh announced that White would be starting this week against the Vikings. However, Saleh wouldn't commit to him beyond that saying that White's status is "week to week."
- Eli Mitchell could be out for up to two months. The 49ers running back just returned from injury and now he's dealing with another issue. Kyle Shanahan revealed that Mitchell suffered a knee injury on Sunday and will likely miss six-to-eight weeks, which means he probably won't be back on the field unless the 49ers make the playoffs.
- Aaron Rodgers will start this week if he's healthy. With the Packers' season slipping away, it would make some sense for Green Bay to start Jordan Love on Sunday against Chicago, but right now, that's not the plan. Matt LaFleur said on Monday that Rodgers will be the starter this week if he's healthy enough to play. Cody Benjamin made the argument that the Packers should definitely play Love for the rest of the season and you can check that out by clicking here.
- Dolphins left tackle dealing with pectoral injury. The Dolphins offensive took a major hit this week with Terron Armstead suffering a partial tear of his against the Texans, according to NFL.com. The left tackle definitely won't be playing Sunday and there's a chance he could miss at least three weeks with the injury.
- Eagles defensive starter has lacerated kidney. C.J. Gardner-Johnson left Sunday night's game with an injury and it turns out that injury was pretty serious. The Eagles safety suffered a lacerated kidney that will likely keep him out for a few weeks.
- Darnell Mooney out for the season. Coach Matt Eberflus announced on Monday that Mooney will miss the rest of the season due to an ankle injury. Mooney was the team's leading receiver through the first 12 weeks. Chicago's season keeps going from bad to worse.
