The NFL is America's most-watched sport because each year is filled with parity, four new teams have made the postseason each year since 1990 and new stars emerge every season.
While Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes won his second NFL MVP award last season, the current odds leaderboard for the 2023 award is led by two players searching for their first MVP. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the current leader through the first quarter of the season with +400 odds to take home the crown. He has surged up from his preseason number of +750, thanks to his dominant play during the Bills' three-game winning streak since Week 2. Allen's 76.6% completion percentage, 10 total touchdowns and 125.8 passer rating all lead the league since Week 2.
Right behind him is an AFC East divisional rival. While Allen had the third-best odds in the NFL entering the season, Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was a little further back with the ninth-best preseason odds, at +2200. The lefty's chances have gone up to +500 since the start of the season as he leads the NFL in with 1,306 passing yards and 9.6 yards per pass attempt with Miami out to a 3-1 start.
Two non-quarterbacks have rocketed up the board since the start of the season as well, a surprise given the award has gone to a quarterback in each of the last 10 seasons (Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson was the last non-quarterback to take the award home after he ran for 2,097 yards, the second most in a season in NFL history).
San Francisco 49ers running Christian McCaffrey, who was +8,000 to win the award in the preseason, is now tied for the sixth-best odds in the league after becoming only the third player in NFL history with 600 or more scrimmage yards (600) and seven or more scrimmage touchdowns (seven) through his team's first four games to start a season. He is now the third member of that club along with Pro Football Hall of Famers Jim Brown (1958 and 1963) and Emmitt Smith. Smith took home the MVP in that 1993 season while Brown claimed the award in his first such season with that hot start back in 1958.
The other non-quarterback making noise is Dallas Cowboys' two-time First-Team All-Pro linebacker Micah Parsons, whose 25.7% quarterback pressure rate is the highest in the NFL among 109 players with 75 or more pass rushes this season. He also co-leads the NFL in quarterback pressures with 27 alongside the Raiders' Maxx Crosby and the Detroit Lions' Aidan Hutchinson following his explosion against the Patriots on Sunday in which he recorded 10 quarterback pressures. That is tied for the most in a game this season along with Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson's 10 against the Los Angeles Rams on "Monday Night Football" in Week 3.
Parsons' chances at MVP have jumped from +15,000 entering the season to +3,500 currently, the 11th-best odds in the NFL. Pro Football Hall of Famer and New York Giants legend Lawrence Taylor was the last defensive player to win NFL MVP back in the 1986 season.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted
| PLAYER | CURRENT 2023 NFL MVP ODDS | PRESEASON 2023 NFL MVP ODDS |
|---|---|---|
Josh Allen | +400 | +750 |
Tua Tagovailoa | +500 | +2200 |
Patrick Mahomes | +550 | +650 |
| Jalen Hurts | +750 | +1200 |
+1000 | +1600 | |
Christian McCaffrey | +2000 | +8000* |
| Justin Herbert | +2000 | +1500 |
+2000 | +4500 | |
+2500 | +1600 | |
| Dak Prescott | +3000 | +2500 |
Micah Parsons | +3500 | +15000* |
| Jared Goff | +4000 | +4000 |
| Joe Burrow | +6000 | +750 |
| Deshaun Watson | +6000 | +4000 |
+6000 | +5000 | |
+8000 | +4000 | |
+8000 | N/A | |
| Justin Jefferson | +8000 | +10000* |
+8000 | +5000 | |
| Tyreek Hill | +8000 | +12500* |
* Preseason odds via BetMGM
There is no doubt this list will shuffle dramatically once again as the 2023 season continues to progress.
