I was torn on two running backs for Week 16, so I just decided to use both as co-Starts of the Week in Marlon Mack and Devonta Freeman. Both have the chance to be awesome in your championship game.
For Mack, it's been a tough final stretch of the season, starting when he broke his hand in Week 11 against Jacksonville. He missed two games before coming back in Week 14 against Tampa Bay, and he's combined for just 24 carries, 57 yards, one touchdown and no catches in his past two outings against the Buccaneers and Saints.
Those are two brutal run defenses, but Mack should run free this week against the Panthers at home. Carolina allows the most Fantasy points to opposing running backs for the season, including 26 total touchdowns allowed to the position. A running back has scored against the Panthers in 10 games in a row, including five guys scoring multiple touchdowns in the same game over that span.
Mack also is 81 yards away from the first 1,000-yard season of his career, and I expect he will reach that milestone this week. It's difficult to trust a running back like Mack in PPR with his lack of receptions (only 12 for the year), but he should deliver in a big way against Carolina.
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For Freeman, he beat up on the Panthers in Week 14 with 17 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown, as well as four catches for 10 yards on four targets. I expect him to have a similar performance against Jacksonville this week at home.
The Jaguars come into Week 16 behind the Panthers as the No. 2 team in Fantasy points allowed to running backs. Since Week 9, a span of six games, 11 running back have either 100 total yards or a touchdown against Jacksonville, which is amazing.
Freeman started the season with at least 11 PPR points in five of his first eight games, but he's hit that mark just once in his past four outings. He should go out with a big performance in his last home game in Atlanta this year.
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It's been a frustrating end of the season for Mack and Freeman, but don't give up on them in Week 16. Both have amazing matchups and will deliver when it matters most in your championship game.
I'm starting Mack and Freeman over: Todd Gurley (at SF), Le'Veon Bell (vs. PIT), Aaron Jones (at MIN), Nick Chubb (vs. BAL), Devin Singletary (at NE)
START 'EM & SIT 'EM
Running Backs
Start 'Em
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You never want to see players sit due to injury, but I would be OK if Jordan Howard (shoulder) wanted to rest for another week. That would allow Sanders to remain a star for the Eagles and Fantasy managers. He's scored at least 21 PPR points in two of his past three games, and I expect him to have another quality outing in Week 16 against Dallas. He has at least 19 total touches in three games in a row, with 15 catches over that span, and the Cowboys are in the top 10 in receptions allowed to running backs this year with 81, which also bodes well for Boston Scott, who should be considered a sleeper. Dallas also has allowed a running back to score in four of the past six games.
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Let's give Mixon some credit for his performance in 2019. Despite the Bengals having the worst record in the NFL, he's been highly productive, especially of late. In his past seven games, he has at least 16 PPR points in six outings, including some tough matchups against the Rams, Ravens, Jets and Patriots. He took on New England in Week 15 and finished with 25 carries for 136 yards, as well as three catches for 20 yards on three targets, which prompted Bill Belichick to say, "He probably is the best back in the league. He runs so hard and is so hard to tackle." He's a top five running back for Week 16 against the Dolphins, who have allowed six touchdowns to running backs in their past four games.
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Conner returned in Week 15 against Buffalo from a three-game absence with a shoulder injury and had a productive outing with eight carries for 42 yards, as well as four catches for 9 yards and a touchdown on five targets. I expect his workload to increase this week against the Jets, who have been tough against the run all season, but have allowed a running back to score in two of the past three weeks. I'm counting on Conner outplaying his former teammate Le'Veon Bell this week, and the Steelers should lean on Conner as much as possible in this game to take pressure off the struggling Devlin Hodges.
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We could be looking at the final two games of Peterson's career as the 2019 season comes to an end, and the 34-year-old is running well down the stretch. He has at least 13 PPR points in three games in a row, and he's done a nice job this season when he's had an extended workload. He has seven games this year with at least 13 carries, and he's scored at least 11 PPR points in five of those outings. He should continue to be featured against the Giants in Week 16 with Derrius Guice (knee) out, and Peterson is worth trusting as a No. 2 running back in all leagues.
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I thought Drake would be OK in Week 15 against Cleveland, but he was a monster with 22 carries for 137 yards and four touchdowns, as well as one catch for 9 yards on one target. The Cardinals should continue to feed Drake this week against Seattle, and the Seahawks have allowed five touchdowns to running backs in their past three games. In the first meeting with Seattle, David Johnson had 11 carries for 40 yards, as well as eight catches for 99 yards on 11 targets, and it would be nice for Drake to have a similar outing this week.
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Sleepers
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We'll see what happens with Dalvin Cook (shoulder) during practice, but plan to start Boone if Cook and Alexander Mattison (ankle) are out. He just had 13 carries for 56 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers, and he would be a top 20 running back in all leagues against the Packers, who are tied for second in most rushing touchdowns allowed this season with 14.
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With Josh Jacobs (shoulder) out, Washington becomes a starter in all leagues. As we saw in Week 14 against Tennessee when Jacobs was hurt, Washington had 14 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown, as well as six catches for 43 yards on seven targets. Washington is facing a Chargers defense that has allowed four touchdowns to running backs in their past four games, so hopefully he takes advantage of this opportunity once again.
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We're hopeful that Johnson can return in Week 16 after being out since Week 7 with a knee injury, and he would be someone to use as a No. 2 running back in all leagues. Prior to getting hurt, he scored at least 13 PPR points in three of his first five games. And the Broncos have allowed four running backs to either score or gain at least 100 total yards in their past five games.
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Laird has received at least 14 total touches in three games in a row, which is important based on his matchup with the Bengals. There have been 15 running backs this season with at least 13 total touches against Cincinnati, and 13 of them have either scored a touchdown or gained at least 100 total yards, including Nick Chubb and Sony Michel in the past two games. Laird has scored at least 11 PPR points in three of his past five games, and he's someone to consider as a flex this week.
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I thought Jones would be more involved in the passing game last week at Detroit with Mike Evans (hamstring) hurt, but he only had one catch for 26 yards on three targets. But with Chris Godwin (hamstring) hurt also, Jones might be needed more as a receiver, which is something coach Bruce Arians hinted at this week. He does have at least three catches in three of his past five games, and he should continue to see about 11 carries. He's worth using as a flex this week against the Texans, who lead the NFL in receptions allowed to running backs with 97.
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Sit 'Em
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I love a good revenge game, and we have one this week with the Jets and Steelers. Only this isn't about Bell – it's about the Steelers defense. We know the Steelers weren't happy about Bell sitting out the 2018 season because of his contract and then leaving, and they get to exact some revenge in Week 16. While it's hard to sit a player of Bell's caliber, keep in mind he has just four touchdowns on the season and has scored 10 PPR points in each of his past two games against the Bengals and Ravens. Pittsburgh hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 5 and only two receiving touchdowns to running backs for the season. I consider Bell more of a bust alert than a must-sit running back, but I'm not confident in him producing this week against his former team.
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Michel had 103 total yards in Week 15 at Cincinnati, which was the first time he's scored double digits in PPR since Week 7. In the first meeting with Buffalo in Week 4, Michel had 17 carries for 63 yards and no catches, and he only has 11 receptions for the season. It's rather remarkable that he hasn't scored a touchdown in seven games in a row, and the Bills haven't allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 11, including matchups with Phillip Lindsay, Ezekiel Elliott, Mark Ingram and Conner over that span. Michel is a low-end No. 3 running back at best this week.
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Montgomery is going to be tough to trust in Week 16, even though he continues to get 15-plus touches a game over the past eight weeks. Despite that workload, he's scored double digits in PPR just once in his past six outings, and he hasn't scored on the ground in the past six weeks. The Chiefs have not been good against the run this season, but this is more about Montgomery. I wouldn't be surprised if Tarik Cohen has a better game in all formats with the Bears likely chasing points, but Montgomery is someone to avoid in the championship round of most leagues.
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Williams went from getting at least 13 total touches a game from Weeks 10-13 to nine touches or less in each of the past two outings. He's scored a combined five PPR points against Washington and Chicago, and I'm hesitant to use him as even a flex option this week. Now, you can argue he's better in games where the Packers are trailing, and they could be chasing points this week at Minnesota. But it's clear how much the Packers are relying more on Aaron Jones down the stretch since Jones is averaging 18 touches a game in his past two outings. I'd avoid Williams in most formats in Week 16.
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There's a chance Damien Williams (ribs) could return this week, which would make McCoy someone to avoid at all costs. But if Williams is out, McCoy could be a potential flex option in deeper leagues. The problem is the Chiefs are using Darwin Thompson and Spencer Ware, and both had more total touches than McCoy in Week 15 against the Broncos. McCoy has combined for five PPR points in his past two games against the Patriots and Broncos, and he's rushed for 40 yards or less in each of his past six outings. Keep an eye on Williams heading into Week 16 at the Bears, but I would sit McCoy in most leagues even if Williams remains out.
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Bust Alert
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It's hard to sit Gurley in the Fantasy championship round. He's scored four touchdowns in his past three games, with more than 100 total yards in two of those outings. But this matchup with the 49ers should be brutal, and I would only consider Gurley as a flex option this week. San Francisco's resume against opposing running backs is amazing, especially of late. In the past four games for the 49ers, they have held Aaron Jones (three PPR points), Mark Ingram (seven PPR points), Alvin Kamara (seven PPR points) and Devonta Freeman (six PPR points) to minimal production, and Gurley could be next. He makes me nervous against this defense on the road.
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So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 16 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
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