Welcome to Stealing Signals, your look at snaps, touches, game flow, efficiency and everything in between. Stealing Signals is a game-by-game breakdown of everything you saw in your Fantasy box score, identifying what is signal and what is noise to help you make decisions for future weeks.     

Week 14
Bears 31 - Cowboys 24

Snap Notes: Javon Wims: 45% (-46 vs. Week 13), Riley Ridley: 40% (+34 vs. previous season high), J.P. Holtz: 52% (+8 vs. previous season high), Jesper Horsted: 47% (+38 vs. previous season high), Blake Jarwin: 30% (-7 vs. season average)

Key Stat: Mitchell Trubisky — 10 rushes, 63 yards, TD (26 rushes, 80 yards, one touchdown in other 11 games)

  • The Cowboys scored 17 fourth-quarter points to make the scoreline look closer than the game, but the Bears had a significant script advantage throughout. Because of that, the pass/run ratios diverged substantially, with Chicago throwing 31 passes against 34 runs and Dallas at 49 passes and just 22 runs. 
  • Mitchell Trubisky was mostly efficient, taking conservative passes underneath and posting an average throw depth of 6.4 yards, his lowest such figure since Week 7. His two 30-plus yard completions to Cordarrelle Patterson and tight end J.P. Holtz were both caught around the line of scrimmage and featured plenty of yards after the catch. 
  • Allen Robinson did amass over 100 air yards on his eight targets, but he totaled just 48 yards on his five catches, though he brought in two short first-half scores. Tarik Cohen (6-6-24), Anthony Miller (4-3-42-1) and tight end Jesper Horsted (4-4-36) all chipped in with mostly unexplosive receiving lines. 
  • Alongside David Montgomery's workmanlike 20-86 rushing line, Trubisky added plenty of rushing value, something we haven't seen much from him this year. Trubisky rushed 10 times for 63 yards and his second rushing score of the year, after just 26 rushes for 80 yards across the first 11 games combined. He averaged over 30 yards per game on the ground in 2018, something that helped provide a solid floor for his Fantasy production.
  • For the second week in a row, the Cowboys opened with an impressive drive then immediately fell flat. Ezekiel Elliott got off to a hot start, rushing for 33 yards and a score on the first possession, but he would finish with just 93 total yards for the game, though he punched in a second score on a fourth down early in the fourth quarter. 
  • The majority of Dak Prescott's 334 passing yards came in the futile fourth quarter rally, as he threw a whopping 27 passes for 224 yards in the final period. Outside the typical four downfield weapons, Blake Jarwin saw a bump in opportunity, catching six of seven passes for 50 yards, but Jarwin didn't actually see a bump in playing time. Amari Cooper (8-6-83-1) and Michael Gallup (10-6-109) remained the top two targets, with Jason Witten and Randall Cobb chipping in 80 yards combined. 

Signal: Mitchell Trubisky — rush attempts ticked up in Weeks 12 and 13 before this performance, appears we're seeing a return of that aspect of his Fantasy value

Noise: Blake Jarwin — no playing time bump, just positive target variance

Friday news and notes

  • Adam Thielen didn't practice Thursday, and coach Mike Zimmer said the Vikings don't need "to push it." Thielen appeared to be on track for a return, but now seems headed for yet another absence. Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook has been cleared and is said to be 100%. It's possible Cook could cede more touches to Alexander Mattison than a typical week, but Minnesota otherwise projects similarly to the past few weeks if Thielen is out, meaning Stefon Diggs and the two tight ends will be the featured options in the passing game. 
  • The Chiefs moved Darrel Williams to IR, ending his season. Damien Williams has yet to practice this week, and it's looking possible Kansas City will be down to LeSean McCoy, rookie Darwin Thompson and the recently-signed Spencer Ware for Sunday's huge matchup with New England. The touches could split several ways given McCoy's recently capped usage, but a three-point spread and 49 over/under suggest this could be a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair, which would mean plenty of potential for running back production. 
  • James Conner has been ruled out for Pittsburgh, while JuJu Smith-Schuster also appears unlikely to play. Pittsburgh will go forward with Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels at running back, and James Washington and Diontae Johnson as the lead receivers for their matchup with a beatable Arizona defense. 
  • Le'Veon Bell missed his second straight practice Friday with an illness, and his status for Sunday is uncertain. Bilal Powell would likely pick up No. 1 reps for the Jets if Bell were to miss, in what is a plus matchup against the Dolphins.
  • Gerald Everett hasn't been practicing this week and looks headed for his second straight absence. Tyler Higbee had a big day against the Cardinals with Week 13 with Everett out, but the Cardinals are the best matchup in the league for tight ends. If Everett misses, Higbee would be a streaming option against Seattle, but his expectation would be lower than his Week 13 output. 
  • Josh Jacobs missed Wednesday and Thursday practices, and it was revealed this week he is playing through a fracture. If he's held out, the backfield reps would likely be split up between Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. Richard has tended to play a bit more than Washington, but the duo has largely split backfield reps behind Jacobs and should both be expected to see touches. 
  • Daniel Jones is still very unlikely to play, but Eli Manning could have both Evan Engram and Golden Tate for their Monday night matchup with the Eagles. Engram and Tate are both on track and expected to play Monday, but neither has been fully cleared, so backup options are recommended if you're considering them for Monday. The Eagles' Nelson Agholor is one such backup option playing Monday, while Kaden Smith or Dallas Goedert would be the preferred tight end alternatives. 
  • Jamaal Williams was added to the injury report Thursday after not being on it earlier in the week, which is typically an ominous sign. If Williams were to miss, Aaron Jones' touch expectation would rise dramatically. 
  • T.Y. Hilton is expected to miss Week 14, but Parris Campbell is on track to return to bolster the Colts' passing game. With Eric Ebron also out, there's plenty of opportunity outside of recent lead targets Zach Pascal and Jack Doyle for Campbell to put together a solid day. 
  • Marlon Mack is practicing in full and is expected to make his return for the Colts, pushing Jordan Wilkins and Jonathan Williams into backup duties. 
  • Matt Breida is practicing in full and is expected to join a 49ers backfield that was dominated by Raheem Mostert in Week 14. Expect each of Breida, Mostert and Tevin Coleman to see touches, rendering all three difficult-to-use Fantasy options.