I have written several versions of Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts from the start of the offseason in February until now. And with the majority of Fantasy drafts set to happen from Labor Day weekend until the first game Thursday between the Bills and Rams, it's time for one final edition of Sleepers.
This is Sleepers 4.0 -- the all-star edition. Here are my Breakouts and Busts.
The sleepers here are my favorite players being drafted after pick No. 120 overall based on the CBS Sports Average Draft Position data. These guys are what I like to call lottery tickets, which are league winners if things go right.
I want to have at least one of these players on my Fantasy roster this season. I recommend you do the same because they could help you win a Fantasy championship.
Quarterbacks
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The Bears didn't do Fields any favors this offseason with only a limited investment in their receiving corps. It's hard to expect guys like Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis and Velus Jones Jr. to make Fields dramatically better as enhancements to Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet and David Montgomery. But Fields is the type of quarterback Fantasy managers should love, especially at his cost, because of his running potential. He averaged 56.3 rushing yards per game over his final six healthy outings, and that would put him on pace for 957.7 rushing yards for the season over 17 games. If he can pass for over 4,000 yards -- he averaged 221.2 passing yards per game in that same six-game sample size, a pace of 3,776.8 yards for 17 games -- then we have a potential superstar. I'm excited to see what Fields can do, and he's a No. 2 quarterback to target in all leagues. By the end of the year, he could be your starter.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Unlike Fields, the Jaguars made sure to help Lawrence this offseason with new weapons in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram. Along with Travis Etienne (foot) back healthy -- and swapping out Urban Meyer for Doug Pederson -- there's a lot to like about Lawrence this year. He should start to look like the No. 1 overall pick from 2021, and Fantasy managers should benefit from improved production. Lawrence only had three games last year with at least 21 Fantasy points, but hopefully that becomes the norm with a fresh start. Lawrence isn't going to be a dynamic rushing quarterback, but he did have 73 attempts for 334 yards and two touchdowns last year. And at Clemson, he ran for 766 yards and 17 touchdowns over his final two seasons in 25 games. Like Fields, Lawrence is a good No. 2 quarterback to target since he has No. 1 upside by the end of the season.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Other sleeper quarterbacks to consider: Tua Tagovailoa, Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield.
Fantasy Football Today Newsletter
Know What Your Friends Don't
Get tips, advice and news to win your league - all from the FFT podcast team.
By pressing sign up, I confirm that I have read and agree to the Terms of Use and acknowledge Paramount's Privacy Policy.
Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
Sorry!
There was an error processing your subscription.
Running Backs
Projections powered by
Sportsline
If you have listened to anything I've said or written this offseason, Hines is one of my favorite players to draft this year, and he's a steal at this price in PPR. I love his upside in the passing game, and the Colts appear set to use him as their primary rusher if Jonathan Taylor were to ever miss time. I spoke with Colts running backs coach Scottie Montgomery and offensive coordinator Marcus Brady this offseason about Hines, and both were excited about him this year. Brady said playing Hines and Taylor together at the same time will be "more of a focus." Brady added of Hines, "We want to take advantage of the weapons that we have and get the ball in their hands." In 2020, with Philip Rivers under center, Hines had 76 targets for 63 catches, 482 yards and four touchdowns (he also added 89 carries for 380 yards and three touchdowns). Then last year, with Carson Wentz, Hines managed just 57 targets for 40 catches, 310 yards and one touchdown, along with 56 carries for 276 yards and two scores. With Matt Ryan the new quarterback in Indianapolis, Hines should be closer to his 2020 stats as a receiver, especially with the Colts needing help in the passing game. Hines has flex appeal in PPR, and he could be a top-15 running back in all leagues if Taylor ever got hurt.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
It's been a weird training camp for the Rams backfield, with Cam Akers and Henderson battling injuries, along with Sean McVay not really committing to one guy as his lead running back. And that's why Henderson is here. While Akers could eventually emerge as the guy for Los Angeles, there's uncertainty, giving Henderson a chance to steal the job. Both battled undisclosed soft-tissue injuries in training camp, which is something to consider when drafting either one, but Akers' ADP is 48.5. Henderson is a much cheaper investment, and he played well in 2021 at times when he filled in for Akers when he was out with an Achilles injury. Henderson had eight games last season with at least 13 carries, and he scored at least 15 PPR points in seven of them. He also had six games last year with at least three catches. While many Fantasy managers would love to see Akers run away with the job as the lead running back, don't be surprised to see Henderson getting plenty of work and maybe finishing the season as the best player in the Rams backfield.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Josh Jacobs will open the season as the primary running back for the Raiders, and he should be the first one drafted in Fantasy leagues from the Las Vegas backfield. But I'm targeting White in all leagues because he could be the best Raiders running back by the end of the season. The fourth-round rookie from Georgia was selected by this regime, who appear content moving on from players brought in by former coach Jon Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock. The Raiders declined the fifth-year option on Jacobs this offseason, and if he struggles, White could see an expanded role. Now, Ameer Abdullah will be involved in the passing game, and he's a great deep target in PPR leagues. But White could be a league winner with a featured role, and he's the name I give whenever someone asks me about my favorite lottery ticket player this year.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Mostert showed that he's back from last year's knee injury in Miami's final preseason game against the Eagles. He had two carries for 29 yards, but one was a 26-yard gain where he showed off his typical blazing speed. We don't expect Mostert to have a featured role with the Dolphins because of Chase Edmonds, but Mostert is someone coach Mike McDaniel likely trusts from their days together in San Francisco. And Mostert has shown the ability to be a standout Fantasy option when healthy during his time with the 49ers. Now, it's hard to count on Mostert, 30, staying healthy for a full season, especially since he didn't make it through Week 1 in 2021 before needing season-ending knee surgery. But he's a cheap investment on Draft Day in the majority of leagues, and he could emerge as a weekly starter if McDaniel uses him more than Edmonds, especially as the primary rusher for the Dolphins.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Other sleeper running backs to consider: Michael Carter, Kenneth Gainwell, Alexander Mattison, Isiah Pacheco, Khalil Herbert.
Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Your ultimate football draft guide
Dominate your Fantasy Football draft with our free printable Draft Kit, which gives you must-have top-200 rankings for PPR, half-PPR and non-PPR leagues, plus see the top ranked players at every position. Get average draft position data for every ranked player to help strategize before Draft Day, and keep track of your roster with our lineup builder for both snake and salary cap formats.
By pressing sign up, I confirm that I have read and agree to the Terms of Use and acknowledge Paramount's Privacy Policy.
Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
Sorry!
There was an error processing your subscription.
Wide Receivers
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I had Toney as a breakout candidate earlier this offseason, but injuries in training camp pushed down his ADP, making him more of a sleeper. That's fine since he's an even better investment now. You just have to know what you're getting with Toney, who appears to be an injury prone player. Last year, he missed six of the final seven games, and he battled lower-leg injuries in training camp again. Hopefully he can stay healthy because he offers amazing upside for the Giants and Fantasy managers. As a rookie last year, Toney had four games with at least nine targets in the 10 games he played. He had at least six catches in three of those outings, and hopefully new coach Brian Daboll finds plenty of ways to put the ball in Toney's hands. The Giants need Toney to be a significant playmaker with Sterling Shepard coming back from a ruptured Achilles, Kenny Golladay looking like an unreliable option and Wan'Dale Robinson a rookie. When Toney is on the field, he should be a star, and he could emerge as a starter in all leagues. I love drafting him at this price knowing what the upside could be if he doesn't get hurt again.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Collins had a quiet rookie campaign in 2021, but he could emerge as one of the best surprise Fantasy options this year. There's a clear path to targets for Collins in Houston as the No. 2 receiver behind Brandin Cooks. Davis Mills appears to like Collins, and we saw that in the Texans' second preseason game against the Rams when Collins had six targets in limited playing time. He caught four of them for 48 yards and a touchdown, and we should see more of that connection this season. Last year, in the final five games for Houston when Mills started, Collins had three outings with at least five targets, and he had two outings with at least 11 PPR points. I love drafting Collins as a No. 4 or 5 Fantasy receiver with a late-round pick in all leagues.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
I want to leave all of my Fantasy drafts with at least one Chiefs receiver. The obvious one to target is JuJu Smith-Schuster, but he's also the most expensive (ADP 78.6). The easy ones to draft are Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore (ADP 132.6) and Mecole Hardman (ADP 157.4), and Valdes-Scantling is my favorite of that trio. His role should be locked in as an outside receiver for the Chiefs, and they have a lot of production to replace with Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson gone. That's 260 targets available from last season, and Patrick Mahomes has said he's going to love spreading the ball around to all of his receivers this year. The Chiefs invested the most in Valdes-Scantling by signing him to a three-year deal worth up to $36 million, and he should have a more diverse route tree with Kansas City than he did in Green Bay. He's probably not going to be a consistent Fantasy option on a weekly basis, but he does have the upside to win you some weeks if he can establish a strong connection with Mahomes as a key weapon in this offense.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Osborn will be the No. 3 receiver for the Vikings behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, but Osborn could still be productive in that role. And as we saw in 2021, when Thielen battles injuries, Osborn has huge upside. He had eight games last year with at least five targets, and he scored at least 14 PPR points in seven of them. I plan to have plenty of shares of Osborn this year, especially at his price, and everyone in Minnesota has raved about him this offseason. New coach Kevin O'Connell plans to use Osborn more this year, and this Vikings offense has the chance to be special. You already know what Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Jefferson and Thielen are capable of, but Alexander Mattison, Irv Smith and Osborn are three of my favorite sleepers that I plan to draft this season. And if something happens to Jefferson or Thielen, then Osborn could be a league-winning Fantasy option this year.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Palmer is going to be the No. 3 receiver for the Chargers behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and hopefully there's enough targets from Justin Herbert to support Palmer being Fantasy relevant in the majority of leagues, especially when you factor in Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett. We saw last year that Palmer stepped up when given an increased role, scoring at least 14 PPR points in three of his final five games. He had at least six targets in each of those outings, so when he was involved he produced, which was encouraging. He can hopefully build off that strong finish for a full year in his sophomore campaign, but he also has handcuff appeal should something happen to Allen or Williams. We've heard nothing but positive things about Palmer this offseason, and he looked great in the Chargers' second preseason outing against the Cowboys, catching three of four targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. He's a great stash candidate in all leagues.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Other sleeper wide receivers to consider: Chris Olave, Romeo Doubs, Julio Jones, Tyler Boyd, Marvin Jones.
Tight Ends
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Njoku fits the mold of the type of Fantasy tight end you should be looking for on Draft Day. He's going to be at least the No. 2 target in the passing game for the Browns, and being first or second in targets for a team has helped most Fantasy tight ends have success. For example, of the top 12 tight ends last year in PPR, eight of them were either first or second among targets on their team (Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, Hunter Henry and Noah Fant). Dalton Schultz tied Amari Cooper for second in targets in Dallas, and Zach Ertz had the most targets for the Cardinals after being traded to Arizona in Week 7. Cooper should lead the Browns in targets, but Njoku won't be far behind. Even with Jacoby Brissett under center in Cleveland for 11 games before Deshaun Watson returns, Njoku should be fine. Brissett, in previous stops in Indianapolis and Miami, leans on his tight ends, and so does Browns coach Kevin Stefanski. Njoku has top-10 upside this year.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Other sleeper tight ends to consider: Irv Smith, Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett.
