Following the Ravens' 34-20 win over the Bengals, Ravens fans flooded down in front of the Amazon postgame show and chanted "M-V-P! M-V-P! M-V-P!" repeatedly as Lamar Jackson emerged and joined the set. Fans do that pretty frequently, but in the case of these rabid Baltimore fans, they're most certainly not wrong.
Lamar is near the top of the board in terms of MVP odds and hopefully you were listening to the Pick Six Podcast the last few weeks when we told you to take him at roughly 15-1 before the Ravens started rolling.
I was *this* close to naming Lamar my best bet of all the favorites to win the MVP in this new Todd Monken offense. He would have been a better pick than Trevor Lawrence!
There's plenty of season left so let's refresh the odds around/before/close enough to the midpoint of the season and look at the top favorites plus any value on longer shots.
The Favorites
Any average NFL fan likely can rip off the top names on this list. The order -- via DraftKings, same as we used before the season -- might be a little tougher to figure out but not that hard.
Jalen Hurts (+280) is the current odds-on favorite, which makes sense given the Eagles record and his production. Lamar Jackson (+300) and Patrick Mahomes (+300) are right there as well. Again, it makes total sense with them currently the likely favorites for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
With the Bengals losing and Joe Burrow suffering a wrist injury, the only other player below 10-1 is Tua Tagovailoa (+550).
I'm not sure there's quite enough value to bet on one of these guys at the top, knowing that it will probably come down to who lands the No. 1 seed in their respective conference. Three of the candidates are vulturing one another and Hurts' price is just prohibitive when a hot stretch by any other quarterback could derail him, not to mention the Eagles have a brutal schedule.
Betting on Mahomes or Hurts almost certainly should wait until after the Eagles-Chiefs Monday night game, unless you have a massive conviction about who will win that game. The odds should shift dramatically following that outcome.
The Midrange Options
Quite the collection here, headlined by a pair of teammates in Christian McCaffrey (18-1) and Brock Purdy (20-1). Again, I think it's pretty inadvisable to take CMC at this price considering the last running back to win MVP was Adrian Peterson a decade ago. Quarterbacks win this award and there's plenty of time for some QBs to distinguish themselves. Purdy will be viewed as a byproduct of Kyle Shanahan's offense most likely and he and CMC will also syphon votes off each other. Both are a tough sell even if the Niners keep rolling.
C.J. Stroud (25-1) entering the chat was a surprise, but he's playing out of his mind. The Texans will need to win their division for him to land this award, though, and it would be historically unprecedented for a rookie to take down this award.
Burrow (25-1) fell even further overnight as concerns about his right wrist injury mount. You can't bet him until you know if he'll miss time. He couldn't grip the football Thursday night and Jake Browning took over. If he misses even a few games he's out of the race and his odds would plummet from here.
Longer Shots
I'm fully aware I probably won't sling out any "good" choices to win the MVP yet, but it's a tough market right now because of how condensed the players are at the top of the list and how much is still in flux when it comes to this award and who ultimately takes it home. Betting someone at 6-1 or less when there's this much left of the season is just a tough sell. And the midrange options have major questions marks. Which is why I'd probably look here for some value.
Jared Goff (30-1) stands out to me in a big way. The Lions are playing great football, have a very friendly schedule and Goff is playing great football. He's a former top pick with a great pedigree, has appeared in a Super Bowl, and people are very warm to the Lions right now. If they get the No. 1 seed in the NFC, Goff can win this award. And he should light up the Bears pass defense this weekend, meaning his odds could drop inside 20-1. He also gets the Bears again in a few weeks. Goff will also get a potential "Heisman" moment next week at home on Thanksgiving against the Packers and later in the year against Dallas.
Dak Prescott (35-1) is intriguing because of how well he's played the last month or so. He's been out of this world passing the ball, albeit against inferior competition. The Cowboys' biggest obstacle is the division. It's unlikely they'll win with Philly having a massive lead and you usually need to win the division to land the MVP. But if Dak plays out the season the same way, he's going to get consideration, especially if he goes nuke on a big Thanksgiving stage.
A wide receiver has never won the MVP award but Tyreek Hill (40-1) and A.J. Brown (100-1) deserve some consideration for the way they've played this season. The issue is pretty obvious though: someone is throwing them the football, and there's the Offensive Player of the Year award set aside for the best skill position guy. Hill at +125 to win that award (also on DraftKings) is a good bet as well, that's how dominant he's been. If you're following that advice, sprinkle on the MVP long shot just in case. Hill and CMC are the two guys who could possibly flip voters against their respective quarterbacks. The Shanahan system everyone!
Trevor Lawrence (50-1) is the last look for me here in the longer shots, I think. Lawrence hasn't played well, that's for sure. But the Jags are 6-3, leading the AFC South and very much in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the conference. They've got an extremely manageable schedule remaining (two against Will Levis and the Titans, the Browns and Bengals possibly with backups) plus a head-to-head with the Ravens to potentially steal that top seed. If Lawrence gets hot down the stretch like last year, he can work his way into this conversation.
