Steve Asmussen has the most wins of any North American horse trainer in history, but what he doesn't have is a victory at The Run for the Roses. Asmussen is hoping that dubious distinction ends at the 2024 Kentucky Derby, taking place on Saturday, May 4 from Churchill Downs. Asmussen is 0 for 25 with derby starters, and his 26th is scheduled to be Track Phantom, who won both the Gun Runner Stakes and the Lecomte Stakes. The horse is a long shot, according to the latest Kentucky Derby 2024 odds, as he's listed at 20-1.
The favorite for the Fastest Two Minutes in Sports is Fierceness (5-2), who is saddled by two-time Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher. Other contenders that figure to factor into lots of 2024 Kentucky Derby bets include Blue Grass Stakes winner, Sierra Leone (3-1), and Louisiana Derby winner, Catching Freedom (8-1). Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He's also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he's the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. Fierceness posted a 110 Beyer Speed Figure at Gulfstream Park during his Florida Derby victory, the fastest of any three-year-old in 2024. That speed is fueling heavy action on Fierceness ahead of the Kentucky Derby 2024.
However, Fierceness has struggled with showcasing his speed on a consistent basis. After claiming victory at Saratoga in his first start, Fierceness struggled mightily in his next race and finished seventh in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. He has yet to win back-to-back races, which doesn't bode well for the favorite after crossing the finish line first at the Florida Derby at the end of March. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Resilience, even though he's a 20-1 longshot. Since the calendar flipped to 2024, Resilience has won two of his three races and is coming off a 2 1/4 lengths victory at the Wood Memorial Stakes. Trainer Bill Mott added blinkers to the horse for that race, and Mott clearly knows what he's doing as the reigning award winner for Outstanding Trainer. Mott has already been inducted into the Hall of Fame, has a Kentucky Derby victory under his belt with Country House (2019), and has seen two of his last four Derby starters finish in the money.
Resilience's pedigree may even surpass his connections. His sire, Into Mischief, has produced two Kentucky Derby winners, so far, in Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021). Meanwhile, Resilience's grandsire, Smart Strike, also has two Derby winners in Mine That Bird (2009) and Rich Strike (2022). That means every Derby winner from 2019 to 2022 has a connection via either trainer or blood relative to Resilience. Add in that 11 horses that have won the Wood Memorial have then gone on to win at Churchill Downs, and you can see why Demling is high on Resilience. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who "keeps getting better and better." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Encino | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | T O Password (JPN) | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Forever Young (JPN) | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
