The Road to the Kentucky Derby 2024 is the series of prep races to determine who qualifies for the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup. However, it doesn't determine who will be victorious at Churchill Downs since it has been a decade since the horse who earned the most points in the qualifying races won the Run for the Roses. Sierra Leone tops the prep race standings entering the Kentucky Derby 2024 with 155 points, courtesy of winning the Risen Star Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes. He is the second-favorite at 7-2 among the 2024 Kentucky Derby horses for the race on Saturday, May 4.
Only Fierceness (3-1) has shorter 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, and he ranks second in prep points with 136. Catching Freedom (8-1) is the only other horse with single-digit odds, while Dornoch, the only horse to defeat Sierra Leone, is 12-1. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He's also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he's the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez give Fierceness a pair of the most experienced connections in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field. However, Fierceness has been inconsistent up to his point in his career, finishing seventh in the Champagne Stakes last October to go along with a third-place finish in the Holy Bull.
In addition, only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after winning the Florida Derby since 2010, none since Always Dreaming in 2017. Fierceness' owner, Mike Repole, hasn't had a horse finish higher than fifth in seven Kentucky Derby runs. Although Fierceness' recent success may be enticing, Demling doesn't see the value in including this favorite in 2024 Kentucky Derby bets. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Resilience, even though he's a 35-1 longshot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. It will be hard for any horse to surpass the pedigree of Resilience considering his father is Into Mischief, who has been named the Leading Sire in North America each of the last five years. Resilience's sibling, Authentic, won the 2020 Kentucky Derby, and another sibling in Mandaloun, claimed the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
Additionally, Resilience's trainer, Bill Mott, can't be topped in terms of experience since he sent his first starter to the Kentucky Derby in 1984. He's had 12 total Derby starters and won just five years ago with Country House. This combination of pedigree and connections has Demling loving Resilience at his long odds.
"The son of Into Mischief was fourth in the Risen Star off a maiden win and then came back to score a going away victory in the Wood Memorial," Demling told SportsLine. "Trainer Bill Mott should have him ready to be in the mix." See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who "keeps getting better and better." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Horse | Odds | Projection |
| Fierceness | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Sierra Leone | 7-2 | SEE PICKS |
| Catching Freedom | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Forever Young | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Dornoch | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Track Phantom | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Honor Marie | 16-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Mystik Dan | 16-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Domestic Product | 18-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Endlessly | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Just A Touch | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Deterministic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Just Steel | 25-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Resilience | 35-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Stronghold | 35-1 | SEE PICKS |
| West Saratoga | 80-1 | SEE PICKS |
| No More Time | 85-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Catalytic | 100-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Hades | 100-1 | SEE PICKS |
| T O Password | 100-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Society Man | 101-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Grand Mo the First | 125-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Encino | 350-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Liberal Arts | 350-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Common Defense | 500-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Epic Ride | 500-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Lucky Jeremy | 500-1 | SEE PICKS |
