Alright! Week 13 got us back on track. Thanks to a bunch of value, great running backs and the legend known as Gardner Minshew, we saw the cash line skyrocket to 168 in cash games and even higher in GPPs. I'd like to give a quick shout out to Antonio Gibson and DraftKings. Gibson and the Washington Football Team are on fire having won four-games in a row. During that span, Gibson is averaging 27 touches per game. His 26 red zone opportunities are second most over the past four weeks as well, second to only Jonathan Taylor. Now I'd like to give a shout to DraftKings because they only raised his salary by $300! I understand that he'll likely be popular at his $6,000 price tag, but we need some free points in DFS.
Anyway, it's on to Week 14. Once again, we're looking at an 11-game main slate with four teams on a bye: Colts, Eagles, Dolphins, Patriots. As of now we're looking at just one game with a total over 50 points -- the Bills and Buccaneers at 53.5. We also have two games with double-digit spreads with the Broncos -10 hosting the Lions and Chargers -10 hosting the Giants. It's a main slate that will be without Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, and Kyler Murray as each of those teams play in primetime on Sunday or Monday night. It's not every week that your first decision starts with the quarterback position, but I think it does this week given the unique value available.
How to handle the quarterback position
Obviously, the Bills-Bucs quarterbacks will garner ownership, and rightfully so. Josh Allen and Tom Brady are both awesome, and it should be a high-scoring affair. What changes quarterback ownership this week is the two cheaper rushing options in Taysom Hill and Cam Newton. Each has their warts, but their rushing upside, matchups and touchdown capital makes both viable in DFS this week. Hill is dealing with mallet finger, which will definitely affect his ability to pass. It's not like he was great in that department to begin with. That's not why we want Hill, though. It's the rushing upside. Even with four interceptions in Week 13, he ran for 101 yards. Hill gets the Jets this week, a defense allowing the most rushing touchdowns and third most rushing yards in the NFL. I'll make the same case for Newton. His floor is a tad lower as we saw him benched back in Week 12. Newton's played three games with the Panthers this season, scoring a rushing touchdown in each. Christian McCaffrey is out for the season, which will hurt Newton's passing output but potentially help his rushing. Either Hill or Newton is viable in cash games, though I do lean with Hill.
Mike McClure revealed he's interested in stacking Hill with Alvin Kamara on Fantasy Football Today DFS.
"If I play Taysom Hill I'm probably stacking him with Alvin Kamara because we know that both of them are going to run… When you stack both of them it doesn't scream obvious value at $7,900, but when you stack that with a $5,600 price tag, all of a sudden it becomes pretty appropriate."
Of course, it's a big week for stacks as well. We have the aforementioned Bills-Bucs game as well as other studs at the position in Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott. Maybe I'm using the term stud a little loosely with this trio, but we know what each is capable of. With Jackson and Mahomes, specifically, they've looked off for about the past month or so. Regardless, this is a must-win AFC North matchup for Jackson, and the last big game Mahomes had was against this very Raiders defense. Below you'll find my favorite stacks in Week 14.
- Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox with Chris Godwin on the other side
- Tom Brady to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans with Dawson Knox on the other side
- Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb and/or Amari Cooper with Antonio Gibson on the other side
- Lamar Jackson to Mark Andrews with Jarvis Landry or Austin Hooper on the other side
- Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill with Hunter Renfrow or Josh Jacobs on the other side
Who to target at running back
Why can't every week be like Week 13? There were so many running backs to target at the time of writing this last week, and then another became available in Sony Michel. So. Much. Value. That's not the case here in Week 14, at least not yet. There are two clear tiers at the position that involve spending all the way up or hitting the mid-tier. Let's start with the top. For the same reason we're targeting Hill, Kamara makes for a fine spend at the position. We know the matchup is amazing, but on top of that Mark Ingram and Ty Montgomery were both placed on the COVID list. That leaves Kamara all alone in this backfield with the best possible matchup you can have. He's also just $7,900 on DraftKings, the lowest salary he's had all season. Here are my three favorite spends at the position this week.
- Austin Ekeler
- Alvin Kamara
- Leonard Fournette
I gave Gibson the shout at the top. By now you know the reasons why he's a strong play here in Week 14. Instead, let's talk about Josh Jacobs. The first and main reason to target Jacobs is that he has the backfield to himself. Kenyan Drake is out for the season and Jalen Richard is on the COVID list. Then you look at Jacobs' recent usage and realize he's just a great play, regardless. He has a 16% target share since Week 9 and is coming off a season-high nine targets last week. The biggest hurdle for Jacobs could be game flow if the Raiders fall behind to the Chiefs. Even if that happens I'd expect him to be on the field catching passes just like he did in Week 14.
Here are my three favorite targets in the mid-tier:
- Josh Jacobs
- Antonio Gibson
- Saquon Barkley
Let's show the tight end position some love.
What to do at tight end
Once you get to this point in your lineup, you'll have an idea of who you can afford at tight end. You either have one in your lineup as part of a stack (Kelce, Gronkowski, Andrews, Knox) or you're looking for value. I will point out that if Deebo Samuel is out, I have absolutely no issue going back to George Kittle as a one-off in that game. Obviously, we can't expect that massive production from last week, but clearly he has as much upside as anybody at the position. Outside of Kittle, Andrews is my favorite of these high-end options. He went for 4-65-1 receiving against the Browns just two weeks ago.
When it comes to value options I like Gerald Everett and Austin Hooper. Everett had one of the biggest blunders you'll ever see last week but he has a great matchup against the Texans. He also has a 21% target share since Russell Wilson returned from injury. As for Hooper, David Njoku is on the COVID list and Harrison Bryant has already been ruled out. The Browns like to use their tight ends. The problem is usually three of them are active and running routes. Hooper should be viable this week now that he's by himself.
Here's a single-entry GPP lineup I've already built out for Week 14:
- Tom Brady, $7,600
- Alvin Kamara, $7,900
- Antonio Gibson, $6,000
- Chris Godwin, $7,100
- Amari Cooper, $5,900
- Joshua Palmer, $3,000
- Dawson Knox, $5,000
- Jamison Crowder, $4,700
- Panthers DST, $2,800