Thursday Night Football brings us an NFC West matchup between the Rams and Seahawks that may have serious playoff implications and almost certainly has serious Fantasy implications. The game will include two of the top 20 consensus running backs and four of the top-20 receivers. There's even an interesting tight end in Will Dissly. But, of course, it all starts with the quarterbacks.
Russell Wilson and Jared Goff were both top 10 Fantasy quarterbacks in 2018 but they've gotten off to wildly different starts in 2019. Only Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes have outscored Wilson, while Goff ranks a mediocre 17th at the position. I'm not sure much will change with that in Week 5.
Wilson is a clear start at home against a Rams defense that had been very good until Week 4. For Wilson, a defensive matchup doesn't matter as much as his pass attempts. Brian Schottenheimer only lets him throw when the other team presents a challenge offensively. While I don't expect much from Goff on Thursday, the Rams certainly do that. I expect close to 300 combined passing and rushing yards for Wilson with a hope for three touchdowns.
Goff has seen his efficiency drop this season and his turnovers skyrocket. This is probably related to increase in passing volume, which may or may not be related to Todd Gurley's knee. He needed 68 pass attempts to score 24 Fantasy points in Week 4, and I wouldn't expect volume anywhere close to that tonight. Want one more reason to sit him? He's been a worse quarterback on the road and has really struggled at Seattle. He's not currently in my top 18 at the position.
Looking for someone to stream over Goff? I've got options below.
Week 5 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 9.0 - Dak Prescott's yards per attempt. Only Patrick Mahomes has been better by this measure.
- 176 - Pass attempts for Matt Ryan, the most in the league. The Falcons can't run or play defense right now, so the Fantasy production should come for Ryan.
- 20 - Times that Kyler Murray has been sacked this season, more than any other quarterback. It started to show up in his play in Week 4. Hopefully a matchup with the Bengals will help.
- 8.1 - Average completed air yards for Matthew Stafford. He leads the league in both completed and attempted air yards, which is a huge change from 2018 and a big part of the reason he's been a top 10 Fantasy quarterback.
- 90% - of Chase Daniel's throws were rated 'on target' by Sports Info Solutions in Week 4. That would be the best mark in the league.
- 75 - Rushing yards for Deshaun Watson, which is just the seventh-best mark in the league.
Matchups that matter
The Dolphins are on a bye this week, so we'll have to settle for the second-worst defense against quarterbacks. Arizona has allowed 28 Fantasy points per game to opposing starters, including three games where it has allowed at least 32 Fantasy points.
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Carson Wentz is the only quarterback to score more than 10 Fantasy points against the Packers this season and his production was based more on touchdowns than yardage. You're probably still starting Prescott, but you can't feel great about it.
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Mariota has been very good this year, averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt and 6.6 yards per rush attempt. He's even a top-12 quarterback for the year. But you can't start him against the Buffalo Bills defense.
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Waiver Wire Targets
I know how bad Dalton was in prime time. And I'm sorry I didn't take prime-time Andy Dalton into consideration last week. But this game is not in prime time, and it's not against a division opponent. We didn't actually learn anything new about Dalton last week; this is what he does. High peaks and low valleys. Week 5 against the Arizona Cardinals should be one of those peaks, and one of the highest scoring games of the week.
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I don't like this matchup at all. But then again, Minshew hasn't exactly had a good matchup yet ... at least not in a game he's started. His combination of fearlessness throwing down the field and scrambling when things go wrong makes him a solid streamer even against a good defense. For what it's worth, there aren't very many starters I'd sit for anyone other than Dalton.
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I understand if you can't trust Allen against Jacksonville. I wouldn't play him anywhere but two-quarterback leagues and DFS. But I'll absolutely be interested in starting Allen in Week 6 in London against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you're streaming and looking ahead to next week, Allen is the add.
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DFS Plays
Based on DFS scoring, Lamar Jackson is actually the No. 1 quarterback so far this season. Yes, even better that Patrick Mahomes. With no Mahomes on the slate, Jackson is the clear top option in terms of projected Fantasy points and the price difference isn't enough to discourage me from using him. The most difficult decision is whether you pair Jackson with Marquise Brown or Mark Andrews. I'll do both in several lineups.
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Kyle Allen came back to earth against Houston in Week 4 and you might see a Week matchup against Jacksonville and take him off your board. Not so fast. They surrendered 28 Fantasy points to Joe Flacco in Week 4 and allowed Marcus Mariota to throw for 300 yards in Week 3. If Jalen Ramsey sits again I'm attacking this defense with a suddenly dirt-cheap Allen.
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Heath's projections
Rank | QB | FPTs |
1 | Patrick Mahomes | 36.03 |
2 | Lamar Jackson | 27.53 |
3 | Russell Wilson | 27.16 |
4 | DeShaun Watson | 26.96 |
5 | Kyler Murray | 26.65 |
6 | Carson Wentz | 26.33 |
7 | Matt Ryan | 26.14 |
8 | Andy Dalton | 25.84 |
9 | Jacoby Brissett | 24.44 |
10 | Tom Brady | 24.28 |
11 | Dak Prescott | 23.71 |
12 | Philip Rivers | 23.49 |
13 | Aaron Rodgers | 23.22 |
14 | Jameis Winston | 22.73 |
15 | Gardner Minshew | 22.24 |
16 | Daniel Jones | 22.20 |
17 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 22.11 |
18 | Mason Rudolph | 22.02 |
19 | Marcus Mariota | 21.59 |
20 | Kyle Allen | 21.50 |
21 | Baker Mayfield | 21.28 |
22 | Jared Goff | 20.85 |
23 | Chase Daniel | 20.40 |
24 | Joe Flacco | 20.09 |
25 | Teddy Bridgewater | 20.01 |
26 | Kirk Cousins | 19.94 |
27 | Josh Allen | 17.51 |
28 | Derek Carr | 17.32 |
29 | Colt McCoy | 15.20 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 5 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
