Unless you've been hyper-focused on Fantasy Baseball, you already know that the star of the 2023 NFL rookie class is Bijan Robinson. A running back in the mold of Saquon Barkley, Robinson checks off every box and should be in line for a monster workload for at least the first five years of his career.
Whether you believe it or not, Robinson is going to be a first-round pick in your league. There's just too much potential for a 1,500-yard, 13-score campaign. You don't normally find guys like that after Round 1.
The rest of the class will underwhelm. Aside from Lions first-round running back Jahmyr Gibbs, no rookie should be expected to be even a top-65 pick in 2023 seasonal drafts.
That sounds bad, but it actually creates a slew of opportunities for savvy drafters. There's a silver lining to every rookie receiver, including all four first-rounders. At least one of them figures to outperform expectations (our bet is Jordan Addison for 2023). There's also a tight end you'll read about who could buck the trend of rookies at his position. You should definitely earmark a handful of rookies for your back half of the draft.
And then there are the quarterbacks. Three were top-four picks, but it's the one from that trio who went last -- Anthony Richardson -- who will capture the imagination of Fantasy managers and become the first of the group to go in drafts thanks to his rushing prowess.
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Bottom line: This rookie group has some interesting players, but most will be late-rounders who could deliver immense returns. Read them. Learn them. Know them.
Players are listed by the order I would draft them.
- Ed. note: These are Dave's top rookies for 2023 seasonal PPR leagues and started with quarterbacks on Tuesday followed by running backs on Wednesday, wide receivers on Thursday and tight ends on Friday.
Height 5-11 1/8 | Weight: 173 | Age by Week 1: 21 years old
Addison thrived in two different offenses over the past two seasons, winning with unreal separation skills and speed. He's also capable of playing like a bigger receiver, leaping for contested catches and well-focused on tough grabs in tight coverage. Don't expect the underweight Addison to win too often with physicality, and drops were a problem for him before 2022. But the move to Minnesota should be dandy, even with Justin Jefferson there: Last year, at least one Minnesota wide receiver other than Jefferson had at least seven targets in 12 of 17 games. Most of the time that receiver was Adam Thielen, who is no longer a Viking. If Addison averages 7.0 targets per game at his collegiate catch rate of 70.6%, he'll land 84 catches, which should mean over 1,000 yards and at least six touchdowns. That's pretty good for a rookie sharing with a target vacuum like Jefferson.
2023 draft outlook: Consider Addison among your possible WR3 options when you get to Round 7 or 8. Remember, this is a Vikings offense that threw at the third-highest clip in their first year under coach Kevin O'Connell. More of the same is expected this year, and O'Connell specifically mentioned that Addison's arrival is meant to deter defenses from double-teaming Jefferson. If defenses don't do that, Addison will be really busy.
Rookie-only draft outlook: Addison is squarely among the top four wideouts in the rookie class, but there's some worry he'll always have a lower statistical ceiling because of Jefferson. In other words, the numbers projected above for him could be on repeat for at least the first five years of his career. That's not a bad thing, but it does hint at Addison never becoming one of the league's best wideouts, which the other three WRs in the group have in their profile. Bank on Addison getting picked anywhere between third and seventh overall in one-QB leagues and fourth and 10th overall in Superflex/two-QB drafts.
Height 5-9 1/4 | Weight: 182 | Age by Week 2: 23 years old
Everything the Ravens did this offseason points toward being a more effective passing team, with the addition of Flowers the biggest move of all. The smaller prospect is a stud separator who plays like his hair is on fire, aggressively running his routes and reeling in passes. He beat bracket coverage in college and should be really tough for defenses to grapple with. It's simply a matter of Flowers seeing enough accurate targets from Jackson on a week-to-week basis, though that's not necessarily as big of an issue as it might have been a few years ago. New play caller Todd Monken will make for a more unpredictable offense, which will help defenses stay honest. Sharing with Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman could be a tricky hurdle.
2023 draft outlook: Flowers' rookie season may not deliver in a big way -- Beckham and Bateman are more experienced and therefore may command more plays than Flowers. So unless Flowers develops a nose for the end zone (and a strong rapport with Jackson) similar to what Marquise Brown had in his Baltimore days, he's probably going to underwhelm. Round 9 would be the absolute earliest to take a chance on Flowers in redraft and in Best Ball where his big games will help you win some weeks.
Rookie-only draft outlook: Beckham (31 in November) is a free agent after this season. Bateman is less than a year older than Flowers, but there's no guarantee he'll be with the Ravens after next season. In time, Flowers should elevate to the top receiver in Baltimore. Though that hasn't meant a whole lot before, it might now given the new offense and Jackson's long-term commitment to the team. Flowers will get snagged among the first four wide receivers in the class between third and seventh overall in one-QB leagues and fourth and 10th overall in Superflex/two-QB drafts.
Height 6-0 5/8 | Weight: 196 | Age by Week 1: 21 years old
You might be surprised to find Smith-Njigba here instead of at the top of the receiver group. Blame the Seahawks for that. Adding Smith-Njigba to a receiving corps that already includes DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett feels like a head-scratcher, but it's more than likely a nod toward improving the Seattle pass game in the middle of the field and after the catch. Smith-Njigba is a polished, quick-stepping, long-armed wideout with a terrific pedigree. He was dominant as a primary slot receiver at Ohio State in 2021, landing better numbers than Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. No doubt, a target crunch is coming to Seattle with Smith-Njigba likely to feel it the most in his rookie year before developing into more of a playmaker as he gets older.
2023 draft outlook: Smith-Njigba will either have to benefit from Seattle becoming a pass-heavy offense, be hyper-efficient on a limited number of targets or overtake one of Metcalf or Lockett to be a more prominent part of the offense. It's hard to buy into any one of those scenarios, though Lockett's target volume would take a dip if Smith-Njigba were to be an exclusive slot option. Regardless, Smith-Njigba has low expectations and figures to be a Round 9-plus pick as a bench Fantasy receiver.
Rookie-only draft outlook: Here's where things get interesting -- Smith-Njigba's profile suggests the upside to be a great receiver because of his subtle route-running, instantaneous change-of-direction and quality size. He's not far off from the same traits as Justin Jefferson or Cooper Kupp. That kind of upside is impossible to ignore, which is why he will most likely be the first rookie receiver drafted in Dynasty leagues within the top five or six picks in all formats.
Height 6-2 3/4 | Weight: 208 | Age by Week 1: 22 years old
Johnston was the draft's best big receiver, but he's got the built-in bonus of excellent footwork and quick change of direction that is usually typical of smaller receivers. So why was his breakout year limited to just six touchdowns, 60 catches and under 1,100 yards? It might be because his hands weren't quite as reliable as others in the class, nor did he dominate contested-catch situations (just a 34.8% catch rate, per PFF). If the Chargers can harness his power and size, he could be a real problem for defenses. Being linked to Justin Herbert for what figures to be the majority of his career certainly isn't a bad thing. The Bolts threw at the second-highest clip in 2022.
2023 draft outlook: There were weeks in each of the past two seasons when Herbert leaned on his third receivers for big games, but it wasn't consistent. So as long as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are on the field for the Chargers, Johnston figures to see the fewest targets most weeks. Only an injury and/or bad play by Allen or Williams could conceivably change it. He's in the Round 9-or-later mix like other rookie wideouts.
Rookie-only draft outlook: Johnston is expected to be the top dog in the L.A. offense someday. Here's a thought: Allen is 31, Williams will be 29 in October and both have two years left on their deals that the Chargers could end a year early without much of a salary cap hit. If one or both vets struggle, Johnston will land atop the depth chart with potential to stay there for years. That's why it's no surprise he's in the fab four receivers of the rookie class, nor should it be a surprise to see him get chosen anywhere from fourth to eighth overall in a one-QB league and fifth to 11th overall in a Superflex/two-QB drafts.
Height 6-1 3/8 | Weight: 226 | Age by Week 1: 22 years old
A big, rangy perimeter receiver who might draw comparisons to Michael Pittman (who was also drafted by a Frank Reich-coached squad), Mingo seems like a good fit to develop alongside Bryce Young for the next four-plus years. He should not only be utilized vertically, but also on shorter routes as a tough-to-tackle catch-and-run receiver (kind of like Pittman in Indy). Just know he's not a pure speedster and is a little underwhelming given his size. Assuming he earns a prominent role in training camp (he'll compete with Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark and Terrace Marshall for playing time), Mingo could begin paying off dividends as soon as this year with growth every year after.
2023 draft outlook: He's worth a late pick as a bench receiver, but only if you're willing to be patient with him because the Panthers could opt to roll with veteran receivers to begin the year. Mingo may not pop until the second half of the season, which means it's plausible to pass on him in drafts, wait for the person who takes him to drop him, then add him off waivers.
Rookie-only draft outlook: Mingo should be a late first-round pick regardless of format, but expect him to go after the top four WRs, top two RBs, Dalton Kincaid and likely Anthony Richardson in one-QB (add Young and Stroud to that list in Superflex/two-QB).
Height 5-8 3/4 | Weight: 171 | Age by Week 1: 22 years old
A likable slot receiver, Downs put two years of big-time numbers with two different NFL-caliber quarterbacks at North Carolina, averaging 98.5 yards per game with 19 touchdowns over 24 matchups. He's small but shifty with reliable hands. He's not physical but can get open with quick footwork and a knack for knowing when to find soft spots versus zone coverage. He's not a downfield threat but can pop off for solid gains after the catch. In short, Downs figures to be a reliable short-area target who will develop right alongside Anthony Richardson in the Colts offense. It's unlikely he'll face serious competition for the slot role from Michael Pittman or Alec Pierce. He should also contribute as a punt returner.
2023 draft outlook: If catches count, Downs should start the season on Fantasy benches with a reliable 10-point PPR floor. The upside for much more than that is pretty small, though. He's a late-rounder in those formats and an unlikely pick in non-PPR.
Rookie-only draft outlook: Downs' ceiling might be a bunch of 75-catch seasons with maybe one or two just over 1,000 yards. His floor? Much worse, though that has just as much to do with how his quarterback performs than anything else. He should reliably be a mid-to-late second-round pick in all keeper formats.
Height 6-0 1/8 | Weight: 178 | Age: 22 years old by October
What Hyatt lacks in technique, route refinement and strength he more than makes up for in speed, downfield tracking and after-catch production. And it's those three qualities paired with an offensive guru like Brian Daboll that makes Hyatt very enticing for Fantasy. A go-route machine at Tennessee, Hyatt averaged a crazy 18.9 yards per catch with 15 touchdowns in 12 games during his breakout 2022. Giants QB Daniel Jones completed just 38.5% of his throws of 20-plus Air Yards with two scores but had an adjusted completion rate of 46.2%, which was 10th best in the league and perhaps a sign that the Giants needed better downfield threats. Jones also barely threw deep (just 26 attempts of 20-plus yards), but that could change with a sprinter like Hyatt.
2023 draft outlook: Hyatt has plenty of big-play potential, and maybe given his landing spot some Fantasy managers will draft him late hoping to strike gold. Anticipate him being very inconsistent from week to week and likely being on and off rosters all year long. He's much better for Best Ball than for regular redraft Fantasy.
Rookie-only draft outlook: Really fast receivers tend to have long shelf lives, so Hyatt is a good second-tier rookie option. Think of him near the same level as Mingo, which means he'll get picked between 10th and 18th overall depending on format.
Height 5-8 3/8 | Weight: 165 | Age: 24 years old by Halloween
If Dell were 20 pounds heavier and at least two inches taller, he'd be one of the better receivers in the class. The diminutive wideout is a feisty speedster with solid route-running chops (he's a master of out routes) and explosive feet both in terms of route running and avoiding tackles. He didn't miss a game over the past two seasons at Houston and caught 71.7% of his 152 targets for 107.5 yards per game and a touchdown every 10 receptions. Unfortunately, his size isn't his only concern: Dell is an older prospect with minimal physicality to his game, and there's a real chance he struggles with the body punishment receivers like him will take on. At least Dell isn't on a Texans offense loaded with quality receiving talent, giving him a chance to work in multi-receiver sets sooner than later. And it doesn't hurt that rookie QB C.J. Stroud asked the Texans to draft Dell the day after they took him.
2023 draft outlook: Dell's competition for playing time includes Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Noah Brown and John Metchie -- not exactly a who's who of dominant receivers, and pretty much none of these guys have neck-breaking speed. This is a rookie to keep a close eye on this summer -- if the signs are good out of training camp, Dell could be worth the risk of a late-round pick both in seasonal and Best Ball drafts.
Rookie-only draft outlook: Even with his wonderful speed, Dell figures to never profile as a top-tier NFL receiver. But he could be an every-down contributor with some monster weeks peppered in. The hunch is Dell gets taken between 20th and 30th overall in every single long-term draft.
Height 6-0 1/2 | Weight: 200 | Age by Week 1: 23 years old
If you like receivers with a nose for the end zone who are paired with Patrick Mahomes, you'll dig Rice. He's a good-sized receiver who plays even larger with good body control and quality high-point catches on jump balls. Those traits helped him score 19 times in his last 24 games at SMU, as well as 24 times in his last two years in high school. And while he won't win many races down the field, Rice is very good at tricking defensive backs into thinking he's heading downfield only to turn back and become a wide-open target for his quarterback and then gain after-catch yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster sort of did that for the Chiefs last year and Rice could be the one to replace him to a degree this year and beyond.
2023 draft outlook: Andy Reid's track record with rookie receivers isn't particularly great, which will stick out in people's minds when considering Rice in seasonal play. However, this wideout should fill a unique role for the Chiefs and does have upside to contribute. That's why someone will speculate on him with a late pick.
Rookie-only draft outlook: Look, he's a big receiver known for his touchdown production and he's going to play with Patrick Mahomes. What's not to like here?! Long-term thinkers will select-and-stash Rice anywhere between 10th and 15th overall in every format.
Height 5-10 3/4 | Weight: 191 | Age by Week 1: 23 years old
Reed's been a favorite of mine for a while now because he's simply a good do-it-all receiver. His upper body is a little lean and he dealt with a bunch of nagging injuries last year, but otherwise Reed proved he can run quality routes, break plenty of tackles with his lower-body power, and use his quick feet to buy him space away from a defender. It's also worth noting he played in a challenging offense at Michigan State last year, resulting in sub-optimal stats. The offense was much better the year before when Reed scored once every 5.9 catches.
2023 draft outlook: It wouldn't be a surprise to see Reed quickly rise up the Packers depth chart considering it's full of younger wideouts. He might go undrafted until he makes some noise in the preseason, at which point he'd enter the late-round fracas of receivers who you'll hope from a fast start from.
Rookie-only draft outlook: His trajectory, again citing the lack of depth in Green Bay, could hit some huge marks. Count him among the late second/early third-round picks you'll consider.
Height 5-10 7/8 | Weight: 183 | Age by Week 1: 21 years old
In his past two seasons at Oklahoma, Mims averaged a ludicrous 20.8 yards per catch in large part because he can accelerate quickly into very good straight-line speed and track the ball neatly over his shoulder. The Broncos' challenge will be to build off that and attempt to make Mims a more well-rounded receiver so that he can be used in a variety of situations. He needs to run more routes and do so effectively while trying to build up strength so that he's not a liability when he gets pressed or hit at the catch point. Sean Payton has a knack for finding Fantasy-worthy receivers and catering to their absolute best traits, so if that happens here then Mims will be fun.
2023 draft outlook: Mims should be limited to the late rounds in deeper leagues and Best Ball drafts. At best he'll replace KJ Hamler and Tim Patrick as Denver's speedster, but that's a role that rarely produced numbers when the entirety of the receiving corps was healthy.
Rookie-only draft outlook: He's a little more of a risk than your typical Day 2 receiver, but speed wins in the NFL and Mims could have plenty of opportunities to play. Tack on a Broncos receiving corps that could be completely different by next year and Mims has some intriguing long-term upside. His range is between 11th and 20th overall depending on the league format. JORDAN ADDISON, VIKINGS
This article appears in the CBS Sports/Beckett Sports 2023 Fantasy Football Magazine. Pick up your copy at newsstands in mid-August.
