Fantasy Football draft prep 2021: Is this finally the year of the tight end? Here's what you need to know

Every year at the end of the Fantasy Football season, I make a new year's resolution: This is the year we're finally going to stop saying, "This is the year tight end isn't a disaster."

Just think back to this time last year and who we were trying to talk ourselves into: Tyler Higbee, Evan Engram, and Hayden Hurst were all top-100 picks, ranking between TE6-8. Back in 2019, Engram was TE4, O.J. Howard was TE5, and Hunter Henry was TE6, all going off the board inside of the first 70 picks; Vance McDonald and David Njoku were top-100 picks.

Getting an edge at tight end is a huge advantage over your competitors, most of whom will be stuck trying to chase touchdowns from streamers or settling for low-upside also-rans. It's the one position where only a few managers are likely to have true must-start, superstar-level players.

Which means every year, there's a new crop of tight ends we start to convince ourselves could be part of that must-start tier. We know what history says, but we can't help ourselves. And this year … it really seems like there are some legitimate breakout candidates worth talking yourself into!

Of course there are. There always are. Maybe this really will be the year things are different. But probably not. In today's newsletter, you'll get your official introduction to the tight end position, as I take a look at the state of the position heading into the season, while Heath Cummings gives you his Draft Day strategy, some key numbers to know, his sleepers, breakouts, and busts, and more, plus my answers to some of the biggest questions about tight end this season. And at the bottom, you'll find my latest rankings for tight end.

If you need to catch up on other positions, check out my introduction to the quarterback, wide receiver, and running back positions, and make sure you go back and listen to Fantasy Football Today for our position previews from the last few weeks. And, of course, our Ebay auctions are still going on as we continue to raise money for St. Jude Children's Hospital, where you can bid on some really fun experiences from the FFT team and some of our best friends from around the Fantasy Football industry -- like a spot in the 2022 Scott Fish Bowl where you can play in my division and draft against me. Want to prove you're a better player than me? Here's your chance!

Now, here's what you need to know about tight ends:

State of the TE position

Writing about tight end every year is like being stuck in Groundhog Day, except instead of running into Ned Ryerson and stepping into an icy puddle, you're stuck trying to convince yourself that this year's version of The Next Great Tight End will be different.

Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller are the clear class of the position, having each produced a season on par with top-12 wide receivers and representing the biggest edge you can have at basically any position. Last season, Kelce outscored TE4 in points per game by 8.6, Waller was 5.3 PPG up, and Kittle was 3.3 points above. The gap between Kittle at No. 3 and Mark Andrews at No. 4 on a per-game basis was equivalent to the gap between Andrews and TE21, Richard Rodgers.

Which is to say, you either had one of those three -- and given that Kittle missed half the season, really only Kelce and Waller -- or you didn't have an edge at the position. We're always looking for the next Kittle/Waller/Kelce, but it's worth remembering that, the year of Kelce, Kittle, and Waller's respective breakouts, they weren't actually the guys we were targeting for breakouts. In 2014, Kelce was TE19, and then when he broke out for a second time in 2016, he was TE4, but was actually going off the board nearly 20 picks later than he had the previous season. Kittle was TE13 heading into his record-breaking season in 2018, and Waller was TE23 before 2019.

In fact, historically, that second tier of tight ends -- represented by Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and T.J. Hockenson this season, between picks 50 and 67 in ADP -- have been pretty awful investments. While the top three tight ends in ADP over the last five seasons have finished among the top six at the position at season's end 10 out of 15 times (three of the ones who fell short played eight or fewer games), TE4-6 have finished in the top six just 5 of 15 times -- and only 18 of 30 even finished in the top 12.

If you look at overall ADP, a similar trend emerges:
TE inside the top 50 in ADP: 8/12 were top-six TE
TE between 51-75: 5/12 finished in top 12; four in top six
TE between 76-100: 6/14 finished in the top 12, only one in top six
100-150: 8/33 finished top six, 15/33 in top 12

Put another way, tight ends drafted between the 51st and 100th picks on average finished in the top 12 42.4% of the time and in the top six 19.2% of the time over the last five seasons, while tight ends between picks 101 and 150 finished in the top 12 45.4% of the time and in the top six 24.2% of the time. Reaching into the bottom half of the top 100 for a tight end offered essentially no advantage over simply waiting.

Maybe this year will be different! Andrews seems like a solid, high-floor bet to finish in the top six, while Pitts and Hockenson carry significant upside -- Hockenson for the expectation that he will be Jared Goff's top target in Detroit, and Pitts because he is arguably the best tight end prospect to ever enter the NFL and should be the No. 2 target for the Falcons. You can easily talk yourself into them, and Noah Fant and Dallas Goedert also have a lot going for them inside of the top 100.

History suggests you shouldn't count on it, though. 2018 was the only season in the last decade where more than two tight ends topped 250 PPR points, and 2015 is the only season in that span where more than four averaged 14-plus per game.

Maybe this year will be different, though. If not, I'm sure it'll be next year.

Check out my rankings for the position below, check out Jamey, Dave, and Heath's here, and for a little more nuance, Dave's tiers will paint a clearer picture.

Heath Cummings' TE Preview

Heath's position previews have been among my favorite pieces of draft content over the last few years because he packs so much actionable advice and useful information into them in a format that takes little time to understand. He covered running backs two weeks ago and wide receivers last week, and QB earlier this week. Here's some of what you'll find inside his TE preview:

TE Draft Strategy

"This is where you have to do the mental math as to whether Waller and Kittle are worth what you'll pass on in early in Round 3, if you don't think so, Mark Andrews will probably be there late in Round 4. If you miss the top four, I prefer to wait until Round 8 and take Fant. If you miss Fant, I'd take a pair of the tight ends going in the double-digit rounds. Preferably, one young and one old.

If you have a pick in the back half of the first round, you can avoid all of this by just taking Kelce with your first pick. If you miss him, you should be happy to land Waller or Kittle after Round 3. If you miss them, you can follow the same flow chart from before."

Numbers to know

25.4% -- Andrews has been targeted on more than a quarter of his routes run the past three seasons, only Kittle has been targeted at a higher rate.
9.9% -- Rob Gronkiwski's career TD rate. Robert Tonyan, Jimmy Graham, and Jonnu Smith all topped that rate last year. Don't bet on them repeating.
11.7 -- Irv Smith has averaged 11.7 PPR FPPG in his six career games with at least five targets.

Draft to stream in Week 1

Logan Thomas vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Hooper at Kansas City Chiefs
Mike Gesicki at New England Patriots

For more from Heath's TE preview, including his sleepers, breakouts, and busts, positional tiers, and projections, head here.

TE Survey

Every week for our position previews, CBS Fantasy Editor Dan Schneier has been asking us a handful of big questions to get you familiar with what you need to know. Also, you can find answers to these same questions below from the rest of the FFT team here. Here's what he asked about tight end, and here are my answers:

1. Which TE has an ADP that makes the least sense to you?

Waller at 31.81. He's been absent from practice over the last two weeks due to an ankle injury, but there was never any real reason to think he was likely to miss time once the games actually counted. And now he's back at practice. I have Waller and Kittle ranked right next to each other, and I would be willing to take either of them inside of the first 18 picks. If I ever got Waller in the middle of the third round, I'd start placing my order to get my name engraved on the trophy. He's one of three TE who you should expect WR1 or 2 production from, and his price is way, way too low.

**2. Which TE (outside the first two rounds*) has an ADP that makes the most sense to you?**

Noah Fant at 90.04. He has every bit as much upside as Andrews, Hockenson, or Pitts, but he also has a narrower path to get there in Denver's offense, so his price makes perfect sense. If he got the opportunity, I think Fant could be right there with the best tight ends in Fantasy, because he has a proven ability to create big plays with the ball in his hands, a key trait the Big Three all share. The problem is, he's likely to be third on the Broncos in targets, and the Broncos are by no means assured to be a team that can support three must-start pass catchers. If Drew Lock takes a step forward, Fant could be that.

3. Which TE have you been drafting the most of so far?

Any one of the Big Three. Kelce, Kittle, and Waller are all top-15 players in my overall rankings because of the massive edge they can give you on your competition, and I'd rather pay full freight for them than the increasingly expensive cost of we-hope-they-get-there's like Hockenson, Pitts, and Andrews.

4. Which TE have you been drafting the least of so far?

Robert Tonyan is someone who I just haven't looked at in any drafts this season. Sure, he was TE5 last season in points per game, but he was just 1.8 points ahead of TE12 despite 11 touchdowns on just 59 targets -- he was the third player ever to have 10 or more touchdowns on 60 or fewer targets. Yeah, playing alongside Aaron Rodgers is great for any pass-catcher's efficiency, but Tonyan is a touchdown-or-bust guy who happened to have one of the all-time touchdown outlier seasons.

5. Which TE (not named T.J. Hockenson!) will benefit the most from vacated targets?

I'm not quite as convinced as everyone else that Hockenson is going to see a significant benefit from vacated targets, because he's also going to be dealing with more defensive attention and a downgrade at QB, but I suppose that's for another time. Irv Smith is probably the obvious answer, though it's less about vacated targets than it is about playing time, because he figures to be more like a full-time player with Kyle Rudolph out of the picture. I would expect we'll still see plenty two-TE sets in Minnesota, but he should have an increased role in the offense and a chance to put his obvious talents on display.