Fantasy Baseball: 10 struggling rookies and whether you should stick it out with them

Few rookies have lived up to the hype yet

Let's hear it for Logan O'Hoppe, a prospect who arrived to great expectations and actually lived up to them right away.

It's become an increasingly rare quality, which makes it all the more of a shame that he's out 4-6 months (potentially the rest of the season) with a torn labrum in his shoulder.

Who else fits the description? Well, Corbin Carroll has been more or less as advertised, but the same can't be said for Gunnar Henderson. James Outman has been a godsend, but Triston Casas, Miguel Vargas, Ezequiel Tovar and Brice Turang have barely registered a pulse. Even Jordan Walker and Anthony Volpe, each the apple of everyone's eye coming out of spring training, have left much to be desired.

It's disheartening because they all seemed like easy money coming into the year, as prospect call-ups have been for most of our Fantasy Baseball-playing days. The simple fact they were unproven meant they wouldn't be valued at their upside, which made for an easy market inefficiency at a time in baseball history when immediate success was the rule rather than the exception.

But it seems like immediate failure may be the rule again. It's a change I first noticed in 2021, coming out of the pandemic. The canceled minor-league schedule in 2020 made the underwhelming prospect performances easy to explain away as rust. But between Jarred Kelenic, Jo Adell and Andrew Vaughn that year, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and C.J. Abrams last year, and now this latest round of high-profile disappointments, I'm beginning to think that investing in the unproven may not be the market inefficiency it once was.

I have theories as to why, but I haven't convinced myself of any of them yet. What's more important than why is simply recognizing that it's so. When you've been doing this as long as I have ... well, you start saying things like "when you've been doing this as long as I have," which is an eye-roller even for me. But you also gain the benefit of seeing the game in cycles. Go back long enough, and you'll find articles I've written discouraging people from investing in the call-up du jour, with the reasoning being that it rarely pays off right away. Doesn't sound like me, right? Maybe I need to get in touch with that side of myself again.

But -- and this is a big but -- it doesn't mean we should throw out the baby with the bathwater. For one thing, this is only a theory. It's one I'm warming up to but will quickly abandon if the evidence warrants it. For another, the draft is over. You've invested in these guys now, for better or worse, and you wouldn't want to compound the matter by making a rash decision.

Need I remind you that Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt combined for zero home runs last April, batting .205 and .216, respectively? The circumstances were a little different because that was a dreadful month for hitting all-around, but suffice it to say not every hitter's season turned on the dime theirs did. What everyone, myself included, struggles to remember this time of year is that baseball season is a slog, consisting of daily iterations over a six-month period. Even just two months from now, we're going to feel way different about like half the player pool.

The form of player analysis I've come to adopt during these times when the data is too limited to analyze with great confidence boils down to two questions:

1. Do I believe in the talent?
2. Do I believe he'll be picked up if you drop him?

If the answer is a firm yes to either one of these, then I'm probably holding on.

There will come a time when that's no longer so, when I may still believe in the talent, but the data is now robust enough to trust in what it's saying -- namely, that the talent isn't ready to shine through yet. But late April isn't that time.

When is? I'd say another month would go a long way toward convincing me what we're seeing is real. It doesn't mean the numbers need to have been completely corrected by the end of May -- by as late as June 7 last year, Witt was still batting just .215 -- but we should be seeing real signs of improvement.

Taking all of that into account, I'm going to assess each of these struggling prospects in a way that makes sense in late April -- i.e., by answering those two questions and then rating the player's droppability as low, medium or high.

And just so we're all on the same page, dropping a player now doesn't have to mean you're out on him forever. You're maneuvering a game piece, not taking an oath.

Do I believe in the talent? Mostly
Do I believe he'll be picked up if I drop him? Maybe
Droppability: High
One complicating factor here is the Mets' unwillingness to play Francisco Alvarez, who has yet to appear at DH and has functioned more as a backup catcher since returning to the majors. One hot streak could change everything, but for now, it's probably as simple as holding him in two-catcher leagues and dropping him in one-catcher leagues.

Do I believe in the talent? Yes
Do I believe he'll be picked up if I drop him? Maybe
Droppability: Medium
The Mets are playing similar playing-time games with Brett Baty, calling him up to great fanfare but then refusing to use him against left-handed pitchers. As hard as he impacts the ball, it's probably just a matter of time before he takes off, but he'll be difficult to use in the meantime.

Do I believe in the talent? Yes
Do I believe he'll be picked up if I drop him? Maybe
Droppability: Medium
Triston Casas did hit one a long way Monday and still has considerable upside as a hitter, but he's just been too strikeout-prone so far, which is particularly concerning for a player whose standout tool is his plate discipline. Not helping the matter is that he tends to sit against tougher lefties.

Do I believe in the talent? Yes
Do I believe he'll be picked up if I drop him? Yes
Droppability: Low
What's particularly frustrating in Gunnar Henderson's case is that he should be well acclimated from his late-season trial last year. But he's making hard contact and taking his walks, which are both encouraging signs, and there's still a good chance he goes the way that Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt did last year.

Do I believe in the talent? Mostly
Do I believe he'll be picked up if I drop him? No
Droppability: High
Playing his home games at Coors Field was supposed to give Ezequiel Tovar a built-in advantage, but it doesn't help that he's striking out 30 percent of the time. Though a prospect of some stature, he's not as high-end as Henderson, isn't impacting the ball nearly as hard, and doesn't deserve the same benefit of the doubt.

Do I believe in the talent? Maybe
Do I believe he'll be picked up if I drop him? No
Droppability: High
Brice Turang stood out more for his speed and defense in the minors, and it's kind of a stretch to include him here given how late he was being drafted in Fantasy. All things considered, he's held his own, but particularly since it's not as clear what the upside is, you're under no obligation to stick with him.

Do I believe in the talent? Yes
Do I believe he'll be picked up if I drop him? Mostly
Droppability: Low
Miguel Vargas has been a walk machine, if nothing else, and his ability to control the strike zone in his first look at some of the most impressive pitchers in the world is a success in its own right. We need more than that in Fantasy, of course, and the way hitting came so easily to him over his minor-league career, I still suspect we'll get it.

Do I believe in the talent? Yes
Do I believe he'll be picked up if I drop him? Yes
Droppability: Low
Before the season, I said Anthony Volpe's floor seemed unusually high for a 21-year-old given his propensity for walks and stolen bases, and that's all he's delivered in the majors so far. It's kept him relevant in Fantasy despite the pathetic batting average, but of all these prospects, he may be at the most risk of being sent down given how young he is.

Do I believe in the talent? Yes
Do I believe he'll be picked up if I drop him? Yes
Droppability: Low
You'd think a 12-game hitting streak to begin his career would earn Jordan Walker more benefit of the doubt than he's gotten, instead being forced to sit four of the Cardinals' 11 games since it ended. Part of the issue is that they have more quality outfielders than they can use, but once Walker takes off, he's probably exempt from that issue.

Do I believe in the talent? Mostly
Do I believe he'll be picked up if I drop him? Maybe
Droppability: High
For as powerful as he was in the minors and as athletic as he's known to be, Joey Wiemer's exit velocities have been surprisingly suspect so far, but he's done well to keep the strikeouts down, which was thought to be his greatest shortcoming. With all the injuries to the Brewers outfield, he's likely to stick around at least.