Picking college football games against the spread is a battle we are all destined to lose at some point. Even the sharpest sharps go cold and those stone-cold locks will break the other way when you are relying on the action of 18-to-22 year-olds exerting themselves physically over a 3-4 hour weekend window. Trends, intimate knowledge of the rosters, schemes and latest news can improve your shot at making winning picks, but sometimes you just have to follow your gut with these things.
Sometimes I'm right. I can also be wrong, of course, but I'm going to be here every Wednesday with picks against the spread for the entire SEC slate. Expect some ATS trends to sway my judgment as much as inside information or the old-fashioned hunch.
Last week: 1-6 | 2016 SEC season: 38-44 (46.3 percent)
Note: Games involving FCS teams are omitted
Louisiana-Lafayette at Georgia (-22.5): Former LSU quarterback Anthony Jennings has had a good year for Louisiana and the team is coming off a great win at Georgia Southern. I don't think Georgia's offense will be able to turn this into a blowout, especially in those cursed black jerseys, so I'm willing to sweat the cover and hope for a 21-point Bulldogs win. Pick: Ragin' Cajuns +22.5
UTSA at Texas A&M (-27.5): This has got to be a get-right game for Texas A&M. The Aggies will win and hopefully work through frustrating setbacks in recent weeks, but I can't side with the home favorite against the spread. Texas A&M hasn't covered once since beating Arkansas on Sept. 24 and there's a lot of reasons (health, poor play) to think that trend might continue in a game where Kevin Sumlin just wants a crisp and injury-free win heading into the regular season finale against LSU. Pick: RoadRunners +27.5
Florida at LSU (-13.5): One of the ways that Florida was able to move the ball successfully against South Carolina was to isolate defenders in space against its playmakers. The Gators as a whole hasn't been great thanks to injuries and other personnel issues, but skill position players like Antonio Callaway, C'yontai Lewis and Jordan Scarlett are going to win most one-on-one battles against the Gamecocks' linebackers and defensive backs. That talent and skill advantage lessens (or disappears) against LSU, a team that was able to run sideline-to-sideline with Alabama and will be ready to turn up the pressure against Austin Appleby. Florida's defense is too hobbled to keep both Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice in check for four quarters, and I think the Tigers will run away with this one late. Pick: Tigers -13.5
Missouri at Tennessee (-16): Tennessee is bouncing again with Alvin Kamara back, Cam Sutton back and the SEC Championship Game back in play should the Vols win out and get some help from LSU. But how will the Vols look now that expectations are back? It's possible that Tennessee could come out of halftime knowing that LSU has beaten Florida, and if they've got a lead, I could see some "playing not to lose" leading to Drew Lock kicking in that backdoor for the late cover. Pick: Tigers +16
Arkansas at Mississippi State (-1.5): Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitgerald got real close with the ice bath after a physically punishing contest against Alabama last week. Given the physical punishment and the body-blow theory, it's surprising to see Mississippi State favored in this game. The Bulldogs have covered as a favorite just once (against pre-Jake Bentley South Carolina in September) but have won four straight in this series. It's a fascinating spot for this modern SEC West rivalry and could be one of the most thrilling games of the day in the SEC. Excitement for the matchup outweighs in the confidence in the pick, but Woo Pig. Pick: Razorbacks +1.5
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (-10): Shea Patterson got to light up an unsuspecting Texas A&M defense, but I think the game of tape of week of prep will give Derek Mason a chance to gain the edge on the freshman quarterback. Patterson is good now -- setting single-game freshman records for passing yards and total yards isn't too shabby -- and will be great down the line, but he's in trouble if the Rebels can't add some balance to the ground game against this rock-solid Commodores defense. Remember, Hugh Freeze, Patterson is the future of the Ole Miss offense so maybe prevent all that running in the open field with a heat-seeking Zach Cunningham nearby. Pick: Commodores +10
