Week 5 features two of the biggest SEC matchups we'll see all season long, but if you ask me, three games featuring AP top 10 teams could be ripe for upset opportunities, thus changing the whole college football landscape. But don't think we only notice massive brand names – one of the worst teams in the MAC garnered attention, too.
Each week, five potential upsets are picked based on favorable matchups, context (i.e. location, rivalries, look-ahead games) or just good ol' fashion gut feel. For maximum effect, a spread of at least three points is required for consideration – the bigger, the better, right?
My Week 4 picks got the season total back to .500 against the spread, with Baylor-Iowa State, Arkansas-Texas A&M and Indiana-Western Kentucky coming through. Utah State was a total flop against Boise State and Stanford allowed a touchdown with just 2:30 left to ruin the cover vs. UCLA. Unfortunately, I wasn't confident enough to take Baylor and Arkansas outright and my straight up picks suffered.
| Picks | Week 4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|
ATS | 3-2 | 5-5 |
SU | 1-4 | 2-8 |
The good news is that the spread is primarily what matters from a gambling perspective. Still, it's a good reminder to believe in yourself. With that, let's get on to Week 5.
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Important disclaimer: "upset" is defined first and foremost by the odds, not rankings.
No. 5 Iowa at Maryland
When: Friday, 8 p.m. ET | Where: College Park, Maryland
Bookmakers might be onto something because the line sits well within one score despite the No. 5 team in the country playing an unranked opponent. This game has real moneyline potential for undefeated Maryland. Iowa has physically shut down every offense it's played, but Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa is a different animal. The junior ranks eighth nationally with 1,340 yards passing and 10 touchdowns while completing 75.5% of his passes. Tagovailoa will have his worst game of the year against Iowa's fierce defense, but can the Hawkeyes, which rank 119th nationally in yards per play, keep up with a Terps offense that can get three touchdowns in its sleep? I can't wait to find out. ATS: Maryland, SU: Maryland
No. 8 Arkansas at No. 2 Georgia
When: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET | Where: Athens, Georgia
Arkansas has one of the best résumés in America after beating Texas and No. 15 Texas A&M. A battle with the vaunted Georgia Bulldogs on the road presents easily the most difficult task yet. However, there are some reasons to be optimistic. Georgia lept to No. 2 thanks to a dominant performance against Clemson ... but that becomes less impressive by the week. The Bulldogs still likely take a close game, but should the Razorbacks really be a three-score underdog? They held their own against Texas A&M's dynamic defensive line, after all. ATS: Arkansas, SU: Georgia
No. 6 Oklahoma at Kansas State
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Manhattan, Kansas
Is there low-key a more impressive record in college football than Kansas State's back-to-back wins over Oklahoma? Without question, this is the worst Sooners team in a while, and giving them double digits in Manhattan is wild. Granted, the Wildcats will likely be without starting quarterback Skylar Thompson, but they've found ways to generate points anyway.
The same can't be said for Oklahoma, which had its three worst Big 12 scoring games of the Lincoln Riley era this season. Embattled quarterback Spencer Rattler has been shaky and he's never started a true conference road game in front of a full crowd. What happens when more than 50,000 crowd into Bill Snyder Family Stadium? ATS: Kansas State, SU: Oklahoma
Bowling Green at Kent State
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Kent, Ohio
The haters say we won't dig deep into MACtion for upsets. They would be wrong. Bowling Green entered the year among the worst teams in the nation. But in a tight early-season game over South Alabama and a shocking win over Minnesota, the Falcons proved that they might have some untapped potential entering conference play.
Kent State is a talented team with the potential to have one of the top offenses in the MAC. But after mustering just three touchdowns against Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, do we feel confident that the explosive attack will be fully in rhythm? This could be more of a tune-up game, not to mention a look-ahead spot before playing Buffalo and Western Michigan in back-to-back weeks. Bowling Green can take advantage of that. ATS: Bowling Green, SU: Kent State
Boston College at No. 25 Clemson
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET | Where: Clemson, South Carolina
I get it, Clemson is still Clemson. The Tigers recruit better than any other team in the ACC and are one of only two programs nationally with multiple national titles in the College Football Playoff era. At some point, though, we have to look at the product on the field and acknowledge that we've seen nothing from this team to believe that a 16-point victory is happening.
Boston College has played a weak schedule and lost its starting quarterback to a season-ending injury. Regardless, it found a way to drop 41 points on Missouri with backup Dennis Grosel leading the way. BC won't reach those numbers on Saturday, but Clemson's offense is averaging a paltry 12.7 points against FBS competition. That's last in the ACC. ATS: Boston College, SU: Clemson
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 5, and which Top 25 favorite will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,300 in profit over the past five-plus seasons -- and find out.
