After a thrilling Week 3 around the country, many eyes this week turn to the pressure-cooker that is the SEC. Tennessee vs. Florida is a must-win for the Vols after 11 straight losses in the series. Arkansas-Texas A&M may be a play-in to see which SEC West team now has the best shot at knocking off Alabama. Then there's Auburn-LSU, where the losing coach will be under fire before September is even out. On to this week's mailbag:
Who has more pressure to win Auburn vs. LSU, Les Miles or Gus Malzahn?
-- Rich S.
Flip a coin. No matter who loses Saturday, the coach will face serious heat from his fan base. There's no good spin for either losing coach.
After Les Miles nearly lost his job in 2015, the barometer this year was to compete for a legitimate shot at the College Football Playoff. If LSU falls to Auburn, that would be two losses before playing Alabama (not to mention Ole Miss, Arkansas and Texas A&M). Losses to Wisconsin and Auburn won't get anyone in the playoff conversation.
If Malzahn loses Saturday, he would reach a dangerous level for job security, no matter what Auburn AD Jay Jacobs may say. You can't lose big for very long at Auburn. The numbers are staggering for a coach whose team was No. 3 in the very first College Football Playoff rankings only two years ago. Auburn is 3-12 vs. Power Five teams since that ranking.
Even worse, Auburn has lost a school-record six straight SEC home games. That's a stat normally reserved for Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Since the SEC went to divisions in 1992, the longest SEC home losing streak by a West Division team is eight by Arkansas (2012-14). Ole Miss lost seven straight SEC home games from 2010-12.
If Malzahn loses his next two at home to LSU and Arkansas, he will have gone from national championship runner-up in 2013 to tied for the worst SEC home losing streak in SEC West history. That's hard to do. Auburn, the streakiest program in America, often finds a way to do it.
Big Ten homer here. I have had to hear about the "great" SEC forever. Is my Big Ten getting enough love?
-- @DougGreenB
The Big Ten is getting plenty of love. Check out Dennis Dodd's piece calling the Big Ten the best conference, at least for now.
Really, this success has been in the works for the Big Ten since Ohio State hired Urban Meyer. That raised the bar for everyone in the Big Ten. I would say right now Meyer/Mark Dantonio/Jim Harbaugh is the best coaching trifecta in any division. That's saying something given the success of Dabo Swinney/Jimbo Fisher/Bobby Petrino in the ACC Atlantic and the amount of money SEC West teams spend on their coaches.
The perception of the Big Ten dramatically changed on Jan. 1, 2015, when Ohio State beat Alabama in the first semifinals, Wisconsin edged Auburn, and Michigan State rallied to beat Baylor. So far this year, the Big Ten is 8-3 against Power Five opponents and 4-0 vs. ranked teams. There's still a long way to go. But the top of the Big Ten appears to have more depth than it has enjoyed in a while, and that's how conference strength is perceived.
Can Louisville be a title contender despite having a five-year recruiting ranking of 39?
-- @AvianDentures
This is an interesting question. The Blue-Chip Ratio theory from Bud Elliott of SB Nation goes like this: Signing more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-star players in the previous four years is a prerequisite to winning the national title over the past decade. In theory, I buy into this.
Using this logic, Elliott concluded the 2016 national champion will be from this group: Alabama, USC, Ohio State, LSU, Notre Dame, Florida State, Michigan, Auburn, UCLA, Texas A&M, Georgia, Clemson and Texas. Louisville was ranked 43rd in the Blue-Chip Ratio, behind even Virginia. Petrino's recruiting classes, as rated by 247Sports, have been fairly average: 38th in 2016, 32nd in 2015, 45th in 2014.
There are three factors that might make Louisville defy the Blue-Chip Ratio. One, Petrino banks on transfers more than most coaches. For example, linebacker Devonte Fields (the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year at TCU) isn't being factored into those rankings. Two, Lamar Jackson looks like he was undervalued as a three-star recruit. Three, if Louisville beats Clemson on Oct. 1 -- and that's still a big if -- the rest of the ACC schedule is very manageable. Houston does await Louisville on Nov. 17 out of conference.
I like Louisville a lot. As long as Jackson stays healthy, I think the Cardinals will be in the national conversation all year. Still, it's worth noting that Auburn in 2010 was the last national champion to make such a big leap so quickly, and these were the Tigers' recruiting rankings at the time: 24th, 23rd, 6th. They also had a quarterback named Cam Newton. I'm not ready to put Jackson in that category just yet.
Does Bobby Petrino's success help Art Briles' chance to coach again? Won't there be some school willing to take a chance on Briles like Petrino got?
-- Tim F.
No, this is apples and oranges. Petrino got fired at Arkansas because after crashing his motorcycle, he lied to his bosses about who was with him: Petrino's mistress, whom he had hired. Briles got fired over how his Baylor program handled sexual assault complaints.
Petrino's situation needed public rehabilitation but could eventually be overcome. It's trickier with Briles. For starters, lying about an affair doesn't rise to the level of sexual assaults. The Baylor scandal, based on what we currently know, is far worse than what happened at Arkansas.
The big unknown for any university president thinking of hiring Briles is there are so many facts we don't know about regarding what caused Briles to be fired. Baylor hasn't released details. That's a major risk for a university, even at the Group of Five level, to hire Briles without knowing more. Briles apologized publicly. For what? He didn't specifically say.
This much we know: Baylor fired a very popular and outstanding coach at the height of his success. That typically doesn't happen without good reason.
Got a question for Jon Solomon's College Football Mailbag? Contact him via email at solomonjt2003@yahoo.com or Twitter @JonSolomonCBS.
