The Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans will kick off Week 11 in the NFL when these playoff hopefuls square up at Lambeau Field.
Mike Vrabel's team sits atop the AFC South and would be the No. 3 seed in the conference if the season ended today. As for Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers and company are on the outside looking in of the playoff picture with a 4-6 record, but they may have turned a corner offensively following an overtime win over Dallas.
Here, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we'll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this showdown unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Nov. 17 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
Stream: Amazon Prime Video
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Packers -3, O/U 41
Line movement
Green Bay was a slim 1-point favorite on the lookahead, but faith does seem to be restored in them following their win over Dallas. That line jumped up to Packers -2.5 by Sunday night and has since moved to a full field goal advantage.
The pick: Titans +3. Green Bay enjoyed their most encouraging win of the season on Sunday as Aaron Rodgers connected with Christian Watson for three touchdowns. Is this a sign of the ship being righted? Possibly, but I'll have to see more before we start blindly backing this offense again. Mike Vrabel always has his Titans club well positioned on weekly basis and that has made them a good bet throughout the year, owning a 7-2 ATS record.
Of course, Derrick Henry will be a focal point of this Tennessee offense and that matches up well against a Green Bay defense that ranks 28th in the NFL against the run. Henry's success running the ball also will set up the Titans nicely for play-action attempts, which is another weakness of the Packers defense. Against play-action, Green Bay ranks 30th in the NFL, allowing quarterbacks to post a 125.1 passer rating. Tannehill currently has a 116 passer rating on play-action passes this year (fourth-best in the NFL).
Key trend: Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
Over/Under total
This total currently sits where it initially opened at 41, but it did see some movement throughout the week. It rose to 42.5 by Monday night but has since settled back down, falling to 42 on Tuesday and sitting firmly back at 41 by Wednesday.
The pick: Under 41. This just feels like another low-scoring game on Thursday night. The Under is 13-6 combined between these two teams this year and the conditions won't exactly be ideal. On top of it being 24 degrees, there are forecasted to be wind gusts of up to 20 mph. There's also a slight chance of snow. Naturally, that could impact the scoring here a tad, but we're also looking at teams who play their best football when running the ball. Tennessee has been unable to get to 20 points over its last four games and the Packers were averaging just 15.8 points per game in the five games before their 28-point outburst on Sunday.
Key trend: Under is 5-2 in the Packers last seven games against teams with a winning record.
Ryan Tannehill props
- Passing touchdowns: 0.5 (Over -274, Under +190)
- Passing yards: 187.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
- Rushing yards: 7.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
- Longest pass completion: 32.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
- Completions: 16.5 (Over -137, Under +100)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -108, Under -127)
As is the case oftentimes with the Titans, Derrick Henry will be the featured piece in this offense and with a tasty matchup against a weak Packers run defense, Tannehill may not be asked to do too much through the air. We'll lean under his 16.5 completions at +100 as he's gone under this number in three of his seven games played this season. For what it's worth, the Packers are also allowing the fewest completions per game at home (14.8) this season.
Aaron Rodgers props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
- Passing yards: 244.5 (Over -101, Under -135)
- Rushing yards: 2.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
- Passing attempts: 33.5 (Over -106, Under -129)
- Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
- Completions: 22.5 (Over -108, Under -127)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +146, Under -204)
Rodgers seems to look for Watson on at least one deep shot a game. They finally hit a 58-yarder last week, which has me interested in the Over 36.5 longest pass completion at -113. Rodgers also flirted with this last week on a 36-yard throw to Allen Lazard, so he has a couple of different receivers capable of ripping off a big gain. Tennessee has also given up passing plays that have gone over this prop in two of their last three games.
Player props to consider
Treylon Burks total receiving yards: Over 34.5 (+106). Burks made his return to action last week and immediately saw six targets from Tannehill, which he turned into three catches for 24 yards. Per Establish the Run, Burks ran 29 routes on 38 Tannehill dropbacks and had a 16.6% target share. At plus money and that volume, he'll be in a position to go over this small receiving number.
Derrick Henry total rushing yards: Over 101.5 (-131). This is a massive number to expect Henry to top, but the proof is in the pudding. Henry has topped this number in five of his last six games. He only played 58% of the offensive snaps last Sunday (second-lowest number of the season) so he should be well-rested for a great matchup against a Packers run defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in DVOA.
