Count me among those who cannot believe Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow all lost in Week 1, none played particularly well in defeat. Such is life in today's quarterback-driven NFL, right?
While those quarterbacks don't have to be superheroes every week for their well-constructed teams to win, when they are "on," they're almost impossible to beat. Geno Smith wasn't great either in an embarrassing Week 1 loss, and Jalen Hurts struggled in a narrow victory in New England over the Patriots.
Let's rank those five quarterbacks by likelihood to rebound in Week 2.
The likelihood labels I'm selecting from here are as follows: Minimal, decent, strong
Week 1 performance
Smith had a 100.9 passer rating last season, fifth-best in the league, a rating higher than Burrow or Allen, so he's earned the right to be considered on a list like this one after his Week 1 effort.
He was mostly dreadful against the Rams, at home. His 4.31 yards-per-attempt average represented the first time he was under 5.00 in that efficiency metric since October 12, 2014. Smith did have his sole touchdown of the game on a pressured dropback but altogether was 4 of 10 for 24 yards when his pocket wasn't kept clean. The veteran only went 1 of 4 for 28 yards on deep throws. He never really got the offense into a rhythm.
Week 2 opponent
The Lions got after Mahomes to begin the season, crumbling the pocket on over 44% of the reigning MVP's 45 dropbacks inside Arrowhead Stadium. I know how bad the Lions were defensively in 2022. This is not the same unit -- add Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Brian Branch and Jack Campbell -- plus all those flashy rookies are now in Year 2. Do I think the Lions will ultimately field an elite-level defense this season? Probably not. But it will not be a walk in the park offensively against Detroit for the Seahawks like it was in the 48-45 fireworks show last season. Plus, Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas dinged? Yikes.
Likelihood of bouncing back: Minimal
Smith won't have 112 passing yards on Sunday, but I cannot vividly envision he and the Seahawks offense erupting in Detroit in Week 2. Not with the Lions pass rush and diverse coverage unit coupled with Seattle's injuries up front.
Week 1 performance
If you weren't watching Eagles-Patriots, and saw 16-0 early, it'd have been easy to assume the Eagles came out rolling offensively. Of course, it was the defense -- a Darius Slay's pick-six and fumble recovery -- that sparked the thunderous start. After Hurts' opening two drives, which resulted in a field goal and a touchdown from a very short field, the Eagles managed 151 yards on their next 10 possessions.
And Hurts' 5.15 yards-per-attempt average was his lowest since October 14, 2021. No one scoffs at New England's defense, but it was a disappointing start to the season for the 2022 MVP runner-up and the attack that finished fourth in yards per play last year.
Week 2 opponent
Short week for Hurts and Eagles but at least they're not traveling.
Likelihood of bouncing back: Decent
The Vikings blitz-happiness and the presence of Danielle Hunter kept this prediction at "decent" instead of "strong." It's not as though I don't trust the Eagles' elite-level offensive line to handle complicated blitzes from Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores. It's that Hurts was shaky against New England when Bill Belichick cranked up the pressure looks. However, we'll see the Philadelphia offense hum at a more Eagles-like rate in Week 2 given that the Eagles want the ball out of Hurts' hands in a flash where space/YAC can be accentuated. Don't be surprised when Hurts is fooled by a few of Minnesota's blitzes, though.
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Week 1 performance
Much was made about drops from Chiefs receivers in the season-opening loss, and rightfully so. It's also worth mentioning Mahomes wasn't his usual pinpoint accurate self in a few of those drop scenarios and on a few other incompletions. His offensive line got worked by the Lions group, particularly new starters Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor.
Week 2 opponent
The Jaguars weren't dominant against Anthony Richardson and the Colts to begin their 2023 season, yet they did a marvelous job keeping everything in front of them. Now, some of this was likely the game plan for a rookie in his first NFL start, but Richardson didn't even attempt a throw beyond 20 yards. Coverage was sound across the board for the vast majority of the game. Also, the Jaguars kept Richardson in relative check on the ground -- four sacks and 40 yards on 10 rushes.
Likelihood of bouncing back: Decent
In last year's divisional round at home against Jacksonville, Mahomes completed nearly 74% of his throws yet did so at just 6.50 yards per attempt, a rather minuscule figure by his standards. Jacksonville is returning essentially that entire defensive unit, and 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker isn't as raw as he was a season ago. Mahomes will be much more Mahomesian than in Week 1, but given Jacksonville's outside rushing duo of Walker and Josh Allen, the true return-to-normalcy outing for Mahomes won't happen until Week 3.
Week 1 performance
The effort against the Browns was unlike any we've seen from Burrow in his NFL career. The rain absolutely played a factor, but 82 yards with a long completion of 12 yards is still unacceptable. Burrow looked uncomfortable and timid all game, which was especially weird because he typically exudes calmness and confidence. It was a burn-the-film type performance for Burrow and the Bengals offense in Cleveland.
Week 2 opponent
It's a hard knock life in the AFC North. At least the Bengals get the Ravens at home. Baltimore was gifted a rookie quarterback behind a porous offensive front in Week 1, and it showed. Odafe Oweh and Co. pressured C.J. Stroud on more than 46% of his dropbacks and took him to the turf five times. Cincinnati's blocking group is sturdier than Houston's. Plus, the injury bug has infiltrated Baltimore already -- safety Marcus Williams is injured and Marlon Humphrey has "a shot to play."
Likelihood of bouncing back: Strong
For as much as Cleveland has absolutely had Burrow's number early in his NFL career, the former No. 1 overall pick has diced the Ravens. In five games against Baltimore, Burrow has completed over 67% of his throws with nine touchdowns to just three interceptions and a passer rating of 101. Neither of his games last season against Baltimore were tremendous, but there's something about the Ravens more assertive, attacking style that Burrow and the Bengals love.
Week 1 performance
The four turnovers from Allen were extraordinarily damaging in the Week 1 overtime loss against the Jets inside MetLife Stadium. The two long-ball picks were unnecessary forces. The third was a late read/throw and the fumble was, yeah, I don't know what happened on that play. Allen did, however, demonstrate his improvisational mastery and sent some on-target rockets to his receivers and tight ends. In general, he played overly antsy all contest long.
Week 2 opponent
To start the season, the Raiders held the Broncos to 16 points at home and Russell Wilson to 5.2 yards per attempt. However, the veteran passer completed nearly 80% of his throws with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Beyond that, Wilson was pressured on 21.6% of his dropbacks, a very low rate. Maxx Crosby is indisputably an elite edge rusher, and potentially getting Chandler Jones back would likely provide a lift to Las Vegas' pass-rush unit. Keep an eye on safety/linebacker Divine Deablo too. But this defense is still in the process of being rebuilt.
Likelihood of bouncing back: Strong
Allen was seemingly preoccupied by the Jets ultra-deep and talented pass rush all evening in Week 1. That focus sparked hurried decisions and bounces out of clean pockets because he was simply expecting pressure. The best thing for Allen and the Bills offense is to return home and face a team that doesn't go 10 deep along the defensive line with major disruptive ability. Essentially, that's what they'll get in Week 2. It's as close to a comfy rebound opportunity the veteran quarterback can expect to get in today's parity-filled NFL.
