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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
- The Pick: Marlins (+100)
- Key Trend: Padres are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Miami.
South Florida seems to be the sports capital of the world right now, so let's ride with the underdog Marlins to bounce back in this spot. The Marlins have won three of their last four contests, but did fall 9-4 at the hands of the Padres on Tuesday. However, I'm by no means expecting a repeat performance. That's because Miami possesses the advantage in the pitching department.
Marlins starting pitcher Braxton Garrett has thrown the ball remarkably well. Yes, Garrett does have a 4.50 ERA on the season, but if you take out his two starts in which he got shelled, Garrett has been dominant to the tune of a 1.13 ERA in those eight outings.
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The Padres haven't exactly been the offensive juggernaut that many expected this season. San Diego owns a .222 batting average on the season, which is the second-worst mark in the majors ahead of only the lowly Athletics. Meanwhile, the Marlins are actually one of the more consistent hitting teams in baseball to the tune of a .259 batting average (eighth in the majors) while also recording 483 hits (10th in the majors). I'm counting on the Marlins to be able to get to Padres starter Blake Snell, who is 1-6 with a 5.04 ERA on the season.
💰 More MLB Picks
The Pick: Over 10.5 (-110) -- At first glance, this looks like a very lofty number. But when you take the pitching matchup into account, it's easy to see why this is a worthwhile wager.
Reds starter Luke Weaver and Red Sox starter James Paxton haven't pitched well this season. Weaver has a 1-2 record to go along with a 5.45 ERA across seven starts, while Paxton has accumulated a 1-1 record and a 5.14 ERA in three starts. Weaver has a history of yielding several runs in many of his starts, so I'm not reading too much into the fact that he's coming off a scoreless outing against the Cardinals in his last start. Meanwhile, Paxton is coming off a start in which he was hit around for five earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings against the Angels.
The Reds rank ninth in batting average with a .259 clip while also ranking in the top 10 in both double and triples. On the other hand, the Red Sox also rank near the top in many offensive categories. Boston has racked up 281 runs, which is the fourth-highest in the majors. While 11 runs is a lot to ask, the pitching matchup should certainly have this number in play for us.
Key Trend: The over is 5-0 in the Reds last five games against a left-handed starter.
Phillies at Mets, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB Network
The Pick: Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106) -- As a team, the Phillies have been a colossal disappointment. Even ace Aaron Nola has struggled to the tune of a 4.59 ERA. Still, the strikeout numbers have been there for the most part.
Nola has tallied at least six strikeouts in four of his last six outings. The Phillies star is coming off of a seven-strikeout performance against the Braves in a losing effort. Nola has gotten at least six punch-outs in three of his last four starts, so even when allowing several runs, he's been consistent from a strikeout standpoint. Considering that the Mets offense hasn't exactly been elite, I expect this number to be an easy win at plus money.
Key Trend: Nola has recorded at least six strikeouts in four of his last six starts