An annual tradition for me here in this space is to pick five overs and five unders from the Vegas lines on MLB win totals for the season. It might seem arbitrary, but it stemmed from me hating how some people will bet all the unders or all the overs instead of thinking about which lines they like. It's tough to get five on each side for me because the lines are generally so good and many go right down to the wire.
This is the fifth year I've done this column. Here's how I've done so far, in case any are curious:
Of note there, in 2015 I had Cleveland over 81 and they went 81-80. I want that 162nd game played. That's a 64.1 winning percentage without the stupid tie. For perspective, it's the equivalent of a 104-win MLB season. I know by gamblers' standards I've been acceptable or even slightly-good-but-definitely-not-great, but by MLB standards I've been a baller. I'll go with the latter for the all-important self-esteem points.
Something to keep in mind here is that these over/unders set by the house are done with the goal of the house making money, so they are pretty spot-on in most cases and nothing will seem like an obvious bet at all. You only need to be right by a half-game or one game in order to win. There won't likely be many blowouts.
One last thing: Bear in mind that if I pick a team to win fewer than 94 games, in no way does it mean I think that team is bad or a non-contender. I hit on the Dodgers under 96.5 last season and they ended up in the World Series. This is all about winning on the regular-season win total. Nothing else matters.
The over/under win totals!
| National League | Over/under | American League | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
92.5 | | 97 | ||
89 | | 96 | ||
89 | | 94 | ||
88 | | 91 | ||
87.5 | | 84.5 | ||
86.5 | | 84 | ||
86 | | 84 | ||
85 | | 82.5 | ||
85 | | 74 | ||
78.5 | | 72.5 | ||
77.5 | | 72 | ||
77.5 | | 71 | ||
75 | | 69 | ||
74.5 | | 68 | ||
63 | | 58 |
Remember, you are betting "over" if you think the team wins more than it's over/under line and under if you think it'll win fewer. Thanks to some of the teams not having the "half-win" in there, we could have some pushes (ties). That's annoying, no?
Away we go.
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| Win total: 92.5 Almost everything that could possibly go wrong for the Dodgers in the early going went wrong last year, as they sputtered to a 16-26 start. They'd get things back together and finish with 92 wins. After that awful start, they played like a 102-win team. Corey Seager is back to replace Manny Machado, though they went a while without Machado. Justin Turner presumably plays a full season. Ditto for Kenley Jansen, who had an awful start to the year. More than anything, though, there's a soft underbelly of the division. I don't think the Padres (not yet!) Diamondbacks or Giants really come close to .500. I'd have been comfortable going over with the Dodgers on a higher number. | |
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| Win total: 94 They had so much go right last season that it's pretty obvious they are going to get worse. Fourteen games worse, though? In a league where roughly half the teams aren't even really trying to win? No sale here. They'll win 100 games again. It's tough to pick the over on 97, where the Yankees are. Give me three extra games of cushion and it's now very easy. | |
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| Win total: 87.5 I picked the Cubs over in 2015, 2016 and 2018. I'm 3-0, rather comfortably on a few of those. When you accuse me of being biased toward my favorite team, I say I resemble that remark! I'm also self-aware and knew they couldn't get to the 2017 number, so you should trust me. My track record is good here. Do I really need to explain? Fine, I will. In the preview, go to the bounce back and Javier Baez sections and remember the Cubs won 95 games last year. Even if you think they'll be worse due to the questions in the rotation and bullpen, them getting eight games worse despite lots of obvious areas of internal improvement coming is a bad bet. I could be wrong on thinking 95-plus, but I'm not wrong on fewer than 88. Go make yourself a lot of money on the Cubs, Red Sox and Dodgers. | |
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| Win total: 74 I can't keep picking all the overs of the teams listed highly. This one is honestly mostly a gut feeling. The Blue Jays do have lots of games against the Orioles and a good number against bad teams in the other two AL divisions. They won 73 last year and only need to improve by two games to get me a winner. I like it because things surely improve for Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman while there's intriguing young talent (Lourdes Gurriel, Teoscar Hernandez). Oh and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | |
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| Win total: 72 They've already got two, so I only need 71 more. It's very reasonable to believe the Mariners even in this transition are better than the Rangers and it's possible we see them hanging around the Angels and A's for a bit. General manager Jerry Dipoto managed to start a rebuild in the offseason that still left them a non-terrible team. They added Edwin Encarnacion, Domingo Santana, Jay Bruce, Yusei Kikuchi and Hunter Strickland to a team that already had the likes of Mitch Haniger, Marco Gonzales, Mike Leake and Kyle Seager. I like them to get to around 75 wins and that's more than 72. | |
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| Win total: 89 I picked the Phillies as a wild card team this year but in the NL, I feel like the second wild card is going to be in the mid-80s in wins. There are a lot of good, competitive teams. The rotation after Aaron Nola is still a bit scary to me and, generally speaking, riding the under after an offseason of fireworks can be good. This isn't to trot out the tired and incorrect trope that "everybody knows teams that win the offseason lose in the regular season" (the 2009 Yankees and 2016 Cubs say hi), but it is to say that there was likely a ton of Phillies action recently that drove up the line to where I now like the under. | |
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| Win total: 86 The Mets, Nationals and Phillies all got better in the offseason. The Braves did add Josh Donaldson, but otherwise pretty much stayed pat (subbing in Brian McCann for Kurt Suzuki, re-upping with Nick Markakis, etc.). They lost Anibal Sanchez from the rotation while Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman are dealing with an elbow and shoulder injury, respectively. They will almost certainly contend, probably even down to the wire. I just think all the above things conspire to push them below 86 wins this year. | |
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| Win total: 84.5 Through Aug. 18, the Rays were 62-61. They weren't in contention. They then became awesome, apparently, going 28-11 to close out and finish with 90 wins. They were a darling for those who love seeing "value" (they stripped payroll to the bone and still won a lot of games). Well, pencil me among the others who just "don't get it" because that stretch isn't going to be repeated with this team. They'll flirt with .500 all year. | |
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| Win total: 84 This has nothing to do with the 0-2 start, though that doesn't hurt matters. The A's got by last season with a torn-to-shreds rotation thanks to good starts from castoffs like Edwin Jackson, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson. Right now, their rotation is Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Anderson, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt. Sean Manaea is good and will miss a large portion of the season. Hotshot prospect Jesus Luzardo is hurt. I don't think we're going to see the A's get quite as fortunate with a patchwork rotation this year. Like the Rays, I expect them to flirt with .500. | |
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| Win total: 78.5 I was among the first to hop on the bandwagon that the 2019 Reds had breakout potential. I'm not bailing, but I'm stepping off of it. Alex Wood is hurt and it's hard to trust Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark to be important parts of the rotation that was so bad for much of last season. The offense suffered a huge blow in losing Scooter Gennett for eight to 12 weeks and that's an awfully tough division -- notice I took the Cubs over 87.5 while not picking the under for Cardinals 88 or Brewers 86.5. I'm now finding it difficult for the Reds to improve by 10 wins. They'll come close, though, but as I noted in the intro, the lines are so good I'm generally trying to win by two or three games. | |
So which teams sail past their projected win totals? And how many wins will every single MLB team have this season? Visit SportsLine now to get the five best season win total bets, plus see every team's projected record, all from an advanced computer model that keeps crushing its picks, and find out.
