NFL DFS Week 16 Guide: Stacks, value plays and everything to know while constructing your lineups

USATSI

Happy Holidays, everybody! It's an especially joyous time considering we have a DFS slate on Christmas Day. I love it! Week 15 was a weird one, highlighted by underperformance at quarterback and running back. Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott let us down while Tyler Huntley was amazing. I mentioned on Fantasy Football Today DFS that I really struggled with my RB2 spot last weekend. James Robinson was mega chalk and rightfully so but popular backs such as Michael Carter and Myles Gaskin were not helpful. At least DeVante Parker and Gabriel Davis came through. Also, shout out to Mark Andrews who is now priced all the way up to $7,000 on DraftKings. Going for double-digit receptions, over 100 yards and a scoring in back-to-back weeks will cause that.

With that we have just three main slates left this NFL season. Like last week, we're looking at an 11-game main slate. The highest game total is 49 with the Rams at Vikings. We also have three double-digit spreads with the Bucs -10 at Panthers, Eagles -10 hosting the Giants, and Chargers -10.5 at the Texans. The highest implied team total comes with the Chargers at 28.5. No surprise but Week 16 has been dominated by COVID and injuries. As a result, we'll have many decisions to make in terms of value plays. We'll start there.

Identifying value plays

To this point we've had Dalvin Cook and Austin Ekeler placed on the COVID list. Leonard Fournette is also doubtful with a hamstring injury. That's three value plays right there. Alexander Mattison is priced up more than you think at $6,800 on DraftKings, but he's worth that and then some. Mattison has started three games this season. He's had at least 25 touches and 124 total yards in each. Again, well worth that price tag. Next up, Ronald Jones at just $5,100. Jones played three games without Fournette last year. He averaged 23.3 touches in those games. I'll admit that Jones hasn't been as involved this season, and I don't think his floor is lower as a result. Regardless, I'm not sure the Bucs want to give Ke'Shawn Vaughn too many touches.

Lastly, Justin Jackson seems to be the main backup to Ekeler. With Ekeler banged up in Week 15, Jackson handled 14 touches and led the team with 54% of the snaps. The Chargers are big favorites against the Texans, a defense that has allowed 4.86 yards per carry to running backs this season. OK, I lied. Jackson wasn't last. James Robinson doesn't have any unforeseen circumstances this week. He's just too cheap at $5,900. Robinson is coming off a game with 21 touches and now faces the Jets, a defense that has allowed 25 touches to the position. I'd rank them Mattison, Robinson, Jackson, Jones in terms of likeliness to play them. There are a bunch of value wide receivers as well. Here are my five favorites:

Antonio Brown, $4,900
Emmanuel Sanders, $4,000
Tyler Johnson, $3,900
Laquon Treadwell, $3,500
Bryon Pringle, $3,300

Speaking of pass catchers, let's get into our favorite Week 16 stacks.

Stacks to target

We have really important games this week in terms of NFL standings. The first is the Battle of the North as the Ravens take on the Bengals. The winner moves into first place in the AFC North. I actually like stacking both sides in this game, but prefer the Bengals side. Joe Burrow is just $5,900 and had his best game of the season against the Ravens. He threw for 416 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 7. No surprise, but Ja'Marr Chase also had a huge showing in that game, going for over 200 yards and a touchdown. Since then the Ravens defense has lost important pieces, especially in the secondary. Marlon Humphrey is on Injured Reserve and Jimmy Smith is on the COVID list. I mentioned I do like stacking both sides, though, regardless if it's Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the Ravens. Mike McClure had this to say on Fantasy Football Today DFS:

"The Baltimore Ravens, out of their 53-man roster, they currently only have 15 of those players on defense and three of them are injured. They have 12 healthy, active players to play defense… I think this game turns into a shootout. I think there's garbage time on either side depending on how the game goes early."

Here are my favorite stacks this weekend:

Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase with Mark Andrews on the other side
Tyler Huntley to Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown with Ja'Marr Chase on the other side
Justin Herbert to Keenan Allen with no Houston Texans on the other side
Matthew Stafford to Cooper Kupp with Alexander Mattison or Justin Jefferson on the other side
Tom Brady to Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown with no Panthers on the other side

Let's wrap up with some tight end talk:

Tight ends to target

Luckily there are tight ends to target at each price point this week and, with all the value we have on the slate, you might actually find yourself paying up for Mark Andrews or Rob Gronkowski. No surprise. If you want to spend at the position, those are the two names you're targeting. Andrews has eight or more targets in seven straight games, including double-digit targets in five of those. With Godwin on injured reserve and Mike Evans likely out, Gronkowski should take on a bigger role in the offense. If you're looking for a mid-tier play, Dallas Goedert is the clear standout. He's now gone up over 100 yards in back-to-back games and he leads the Eagles with a 25% target share since Zach Ertz was traded.

If you're looking for value, we actually have some solid options. Jared Cook is $3,500 in a great matchup and the Chargers will likely be without Ekeler and Donald Parham. Cole Kmet is $3,300 and has five or more targets in four straight games. James O'Shaughnessy is $3,200, just led the Jaguars in receiving and is going up against that porous Jets defense.

Once again, Happy Holidays and thank you for supporting this column and Fantasy Football Today DFS all season.

Here's a single-entry GPP lineup I've already built out: