Dolphins Fantasy Football Preview: Can Tua Tagovailoa help Miami's young receiving corps grow?

The Dolphins found their head coach in 2019, and DeVante Parker emerged as the No. 1 wide receiver they hoped he could be. And now they've got their QB in Tua Tagovailoa. He'll probably be eased in at first, but Tagovailoa has the potential to be a starting Fantasy QB as soon as he steps onto the field.

"I'm excited that they drafted him... Just in meeting him a few times, he seems like an unbelievable kid with a great head on his shoulders... I'm his biggest cheerleader right now, but I also want to be out there playing... Hopefully some of the lessons I'm able to teach him are him watching me play, but if it's the other way around I'm going to do my best to help him succeed the best way he can."
Ryan Fitzpatrick, on Tua Tagovailoa

2019 Review

Record: 5 - 11 (26)
PPG: 19.1 (25)
YPG: 310.0 (27)
Pass YPG: 237.8 (12)
Rush YPG: 72.3 (32)
PAPG: 38.4 (7)
RAPG: 21.8 (32)

2019 Fantasy finishes

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick QB18
RB: Patrick Laird RB68, Kalen Ballage RB75
WR: DeVante Parker WR6, Preston Williams WR75
TE: Mike Gesicki TE11

Number to know: 8.8

The Dolphins had the seventh-highest average depth of target on passes in 2019, after ranking 14th in 2018, increasing from 8.8 yards to 8.1. The question is, was this the result of a change in philosophy under new offensive coordinator Chad O'Shea, or is that just what happens when you're starting Ryan Fitzpatrick? If it's the former, there's a lot to like about this offense, especially when Fitzpatrick cedes the starting job to Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have effective downfield receivers like Parker and Williams, and Mike Gesicki has all of the talent in the world to be one of the best field stretching tight ends in the league if he's used that way. The Dolphins have a talented receiving corps, and it would be nice to see them remain aggressive to get the most out of those players.

2020 Offseason

Draft Picks

1. (5) Tua Tagovailoa, QB
1. (18) Austin Jackson, OT
1. (30) Noah Igbinoghene, CB
2. (39) Robert Hunt, G
2. (56) Raekwon Davis, DT
3. (70) Brandon Jones, S
4. (111) Solomon Kindley, G
5. (154) Jason Strowbridge, DE
5. (164) Curtis Weaver, DE
6. (185) Blake Ferguson, LS
7. (246) Malcolm Perry, RB

Additions

RB Jordan Howard, RB Matt Breida; OL Ereck Flowers, OL Ted Karras; DB Byron Jones; LB Kyle Van Noy; DL Emmanuel Ogbah, DL Shaq Lawson

Key Departures

DB Reshad Jones,

Available Opportunity

100 carries, 54 RB targets, 0 WR targets, 13 TE targets

Rankings and Projections

Player	Jamey Eisenberg	Dave Richard	Heath Cummings
Tua Tagovailoa	QB29	N/A	QB27
Ryan Fitzpatrick	N/A	QB28	N/A
Matt Breida	RB34	RB33	RB40
Jordan Howard	RB37	RB37	RB36
DeVante Parker	WR28	WR28	WR29
Preston Williams	WR53	WR60	WR47
Mike Gesicki	TE14	TE13	TE19
Jason Sanders	K30	K21	K25
Dolphins DST	DST21	DST21	DST21

	Heath Cummings' projections
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	3,493 YD, 20 TD, 17 INT; 188 Rush YD, 2 TD
RB	Jordan Howard	834 YD, 5 TD; 24 REC, 163 YD, 1 TD
RB	Matt Breida	610 YD, 3 TD; 34 REC, 287 YD, 2 TD
WR	DeVante Parker	120 TAR, 67 REC, 1,012 YD, 6 TD
WR	Preston Williams	114 TAR, 60 REC, 810 YD, 6 TD
WR	Albert Wilson	80 TAR, 54 REC, 570 YD, 3 TD
TE	Mike Gesicki	80 TAR, 48 REC, 522 YD, 4 TD

Biggest Question

How do Jordan Howard and Matt Breida fit in Miami?

"The Dolphins signed Howard in free agency before acquiring Breida via trade on Day 3 of the NFL Draft. Howard figures to handle his typical early-down workload and be the more stable of the two for Fantasy. The hyper-athletic Breida is a great complement as a change of pace and potential passing-downs option, and should have both a higher weekly ceiling and lower floor." - Ben Gretch

One sleeper, one breakout and one bust

Sleeper

Preston Williams WR

CAR Carolina • #18
Age: 27 • Experience: 4 yrs.

2019 Stats
REC 32	TAR 60	REYDS 428	TD 3	FPTS/G 11.3

Williams, an undrafted free agent, was arguably the Dolphins top target before suffering a torn ACL that ended his rookie season. He'll have to come back at full strength to have a chance to pick up where he left off, but a 16-game pace for 64 catches, 856 yards and six touchdowns isn't a bad starting point. Parker stepped up in Williams absence, and while Ryan Fitzpatrick can certainly sustain two viable Fantasy receivers, Williams' ceiling is ultimately tied to whether he can emerge as the No. 1 option. Parker will probably open the season as the top target in this offense, but if he last season proves to be a fluke, Williams could be in great position to break out. The good news is, finding out costs you basically nothing right now.

Breakout

Mike Gesicki TE

CIN Cincinnati • #88
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs.

2019 Stats
REC 51	TAR 89	REYDS 570	TD 5	FPTS/G 8.5

The gap between Gesicki's potential and what kind of player he can become started to shrink a bit in 2019. Gesicki ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6, 247 pounds, with elite agility testing, making him one of the best athletes at the tight end position. And yet, he averaged just 9.9 yards per reception as a senior at Penn Sate and 9.2 as a rookie. That started to tick up in 2019, and among all tight ends who earned at least 50 targets, his 10.2 yard average depth of target was the fourth-highest for any tight end. The next part of the equation is turning those deep targets into receptions more consistently. The Dolphins essentially use Gesicki as a slot receiver, so they view him as a significant weapon in their offense. The opportunity is all there for him to join that sub-elite tier at tight end.

Bust

DeVante Parker WR

PHI Philadelphia • #1
Age: 31 • Experience: 10 yrs.

2019 Stats
REC 72	TAR 128	REYDS 1202	TD 9	FPTS/G 15.4

In the interest of full disclosure, I don't personally view Parker as a bust, but expectations are clearly much lower than what he actually produced in 2020. The skepticism comes from the fact that 2019 was a significant outlier at a point in his career when most had already given up on him, as well as the fact that Parker's breakout didn't really get going until after Williams' injury. Add in general pessimism around a subpar team like the Dolphins plus questions about whether Fitzpatrick will remain the starter or how Parker will mesh with Tagovailoa. Like I said, I don't necessarily share those concerns -- the fact that Parker was putting up WR1 numbers with basically no help while facing other teams' top corners after Williams' injury should be a mark in his favor -- but that's the case against him.