Fantasy Football: How to draft from the third overall pick in 0.5 PPR leagues with a high-upside strategy

The blueprint for drafting third overall in 0.5 PPR leagues

The third overall pick is the first actual interesting spot in Fantasy Football drafts in 2022. Why? Well, there's a clear-cut top two in Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey. And I know, I know -- the CMC  injuries! Well, that's not how I play Fantasy. Talk to me about a player who is already injured in training camp and heading into Week 1 with a murky injury status and I'm all ears -- I don't like drafting already-injured players. But supposed "injury prone" players who are fully healthy right now -- like McCaffrey -- I don't buy into it. There is no actual data to suggest "injury prone" is a real thing. 

Now that doesn't mean there's no data on injuries. There is (albeit a small sample size) data to suggest players who are coming off Lisfranc injuries and surgeries take a full season to get back to full speed, and data on injuries like a torn Achilles -- all of which should be accounted for. But this idea that McCaffrey is some lock to get injured when he is currently fully healthy -- I'm not buying it.

So anyway, once those two come off the board, the decision gets a lot tougher. I would make a case for Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson at No. 3 overall in full-point PPR leagues, but in this half-point PPR, I want the player attached to a high-scoring offense with a clear-cut red zone role and a clear-cut pass game role. And that's exactly how I started my draft below.

But after that? I went fence swinging. I wanted to build a team that prioritized upside and trying to win the league. I don't care about finishing in second or third place -- or grinding to a playoff spot with a team that ultimately can't make a run. So my next two picks were pure upside and we went from there.

Pick-by-pick 0.5-PPR strategy: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12

As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We also award 0.5 points for every reception. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE). 

Here's my team from No. 3 overall:

1.3 Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers
2.10 Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos
3.3: Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons
4.10 Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins
5.3 Marquise Brown, WR, Cardinals
6.10 Elijah Moore, WR, Jets
7.3 Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers
8.10 Hunter Renfrow, WR, Raiders
9.3 Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
10.10 Rondale Moore, WR, Cardinals
11.3 Alexander Mattison, RB, Vikings
12.10 Jameson Williams, WR, Lions
13.3 Jordan Mason, RB, 49ers
14.10 Gerald Everett, TE, Chargers
15.3 Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars

Favorite pick

I get it -- Davante Adams is a Raider now and Darren Waller is healthy (for now -- ehh is he really?) -- so the target competition for Renfrow will be heightened. But so will the pass volume overall for a Raiders team trying to play catch up in the AFC West. And let's not forget Renfrow now gets Josh McDaniels running his offense -- the king of the slot targets! Renfrow has demonstrated an ability to get open on the two-way slot routes on a consistent basis with an incredible rapport with his quarterback and an unheralded ability to get open in the red zone and draw targets there. He is one of the best values at the receiver position this draft season.

Pick I might regret

I love the upside of Waddle after what he pulled off in 2021 as a target earner and explosive game-breaker, but he hasn't practiced in several weeks now, he has a new offensive system in place that should be more run-heavy than last year's system, questions at quarterback and Tyreek Hill in the mix to take away volume. There is also an easy bust case to be made for Waddle.

Make or break player

It feels odd to draft a player in the top-24 overall at running back who won't start the season with a massive workhorse load. But at the same time, Williams is one of the most talented young backs in the NFL and his offense just got a massive upgrade with Russell Wilson in town. One Melvin Gordon injury and Williams is arguably the most valuable running back in all of Fantasy. I am taking a swing on a clear boom-bust type here.