Super Bowl best bets, from the total and spread to which props to wager on

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Welcome to the final Football Friday of the season. The Super Bowl is Sunday, which means we won't have any football for the next six months, but don't worry, I've packed enough picks in here today to cover you until August.

Also, since there's still a lot of time to kill between reading these words and kickoff at SoFi Stadium, I've included enough soccer picks to get you to Sunday and a money line parlay for Friday night. Before we get to what is easily the longest HQ PM Newsletter I've ever written for you, let's catch up on today's reading. We'll start with some other words I wrote for today.

And now for the Super Bowl of newsletters.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

NFL: FEB 08 Super Bowl LVI - Super Bowl Week — Getty Images

Rams vs. Bengals, Sunday, 6:30 p.m. | TV: NBC

The Pick: Under 48.5 (-110): I was able to get the under when it was first posted at 50, and it's come down since, but I still like it at 48.5. That said, it could be worth waiting on. All of the sharp money has come in on it, and there will be a flow of public action coming in as the game approaches, and public money tends to favor the over. So there's a chance this number climbs up to 49, which is a key number in football.

As for why I like the under, I suppose I could just say I don't think this game will be high-scoring, but that wouldn't be as fun.

Instead, I'll point out that the total for the Super Bowl has slowly been creeping up the last few years, and it's led to three straight unders. In Super Bowl 53, there was all the talk about Tom Brady taking on Sean McVay and an unstoppable Rams offense. The total closed at 55.5, and the game finished 13-3. Super Bowl 54 was about Patrick Mahomes and the unstoppable Chiefs offense against the mastermind Kyle Shanahan. The total was 52.5, and the final score snuck up to 31-20. Last year it was OMG TOM BRADY VS PATRICK MAHOMES, and the total was 55. The final score was 31-9.

While Super Bowls 51 and 52 were high-scoring affairs, they are the exception more than the rule for the Super Bowl. While you need a strong offense to win a Super Bowl in the NFL these days, the teams with potent offenses and good defenses reach the game, and those defenses are too often overlooked. The Rams have a great defense. The Bengals have a better defense than most realize. Both will make life a lot more difficult for the other and keep this one from getting crazy. Unless we reach overtime, I don't see this going over. So if we lose this bet, at least we get overtime in the freaking Super Bowl.

Key Trend: The under has hit in three straight and four of the last six Super Bowls.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: You can't go into the weekend without all of my picks or without knowing what SportsLine's Projection Model has to say.

💰 Other Super Bowl picks

The Pick: Bengals +4 (-110): Do you know what else has proven to be a solid play in Super Bowls? The underdog, and considering we don't expect this game to be high-scoring, the underdog makes even more sense. The biggest concern for Cincinnati in this matchup is its offensive line against the Rams defensive front. Including the postseason, the Bengals have allowed a sack on 8.2% of their dropbacks. That's the 31st worst rate in the league, ahead of only Chicago (9.1%). That's not great when you're facing a Rams defense that ranks 8th in the league in pressure rate (32.1%) and sack rate (6.9%).

What we overlook, though, is that Joe Burrow doesn't care. Sure, it's not a healthy long-term plan for the franchise, but Burrow is willing to take a hit if it buys one of his receivers an extra half-second to get open. Plus, we can't just pretend the Rams don't have their own problems. This season, Los Angeles has turned the ball over on 11.8% of its possessions (remember yesterday when we took the Matt Stafford interception prop?), which is more often than the Bengals have. The Bengals defense ranks 10th in turnover rate defensively, forcing them on 12.7% of their defensive possessions.

These are more reasons why I like the under, but a lower-scoring affair makes it unlikely either team can pull away from the other, making Cincinnati and those four points attractive.

Key Trend: The last six Super Bowl underdogs of four points or more covered.

The Pick: Joe Mixon Under 60.5 rushing yards (-130): There's been plenty of talk about the Bengals offensive line protecting Joe Burrow against this Rams defense and not nearly enough about it opening holes for Joe Mixon in the run game. The Rams rank seventh in the NFL in defensive EPA against the run and sixth in yards allowed per carry. Against San Francisco in the NFC Championship, they did a phenomenal job eliminating the 49ers rushing attack, which derailed everything the Niners wanted to do. They'll look to do the same against Cincinnati, and Joe Mixon has only rushed for 60 yards or more in two of Cincinnati's last eight games.

Key Trend: Joe Mixon has averaged 58.9 yards rushing per game in the last eight games.

The Pick: Joe Burrow Over 35.5 passing attempts (-115): This pick is connected to the Mixon prop. If the Rams take away the run game, that will force Cincinnati to throw more, and we've already seen that happen naturally with the Bengals. I just told you about Joe Mixon rushing for over 60 yards in only two of Cincinnati's last eight games, and Joe Burrow has attempted an average of 36.3 pass attempts in those eight games. Take out the Denver game in which Burrow threw only 22 passes, and that average jumps to 38.3. The Bengals have been passing more often over the latter portion of the season than they were earlier, so let's take advantage.

Key Trend: Joe Burrow is averaging 36.3 pass attempts per game over the last eight.

The Pick: Cooper Kupp to score 2+ TD (+285): I don't normally go after props like this one, but it's the Super Bowl, so let's have some fun. Plus, there's some decent value on this prop if you look at the numbers. Including the playoffs, the Bengals have allowed 23 passing touchdowns in the red zone this season, or one per game. No player in the league has caught more red-zone TDs than Kupp (16) or been targeted as often in the red zone (44). It's a shot that could pay off nicely.

Key Trend: No player in the NFL has been targeted in the red zone or caught more red zone touchdowns than Cooper Kupp.

The Pick: Tails (+100): Listen, betting the coin flip is the stupidest thing you can do when your book is charging juice on it. However, Caesars is offering even odds on both sides this year! Sure, that means there's no value on either side of this bet, but that's not the point. We bet the coin flip in the Super Bowl to set the tone.

Key Trend: Tails never fails.

⚽ Soccer

Napoli vs. Inter Milan, Saturday, 12 p.m. | TV: Paramount+
The Pick: Both Teams to Score (-140) -- There is no bigger match in Europe this weekend. After losing to AC Milan last week, Inter Milan has seen its lead in Serie A shrink to a point over AC Milan and Napoli. Now, Inter has a match in hand, which is huge, but a loss here would put Napoli in first, two points ahead. On Sunday, a Milan win over Sampdoria would then see Inter drop from first to third. Meanwhile, a win for Inter in this spot would provide a nice cushion.

So what's going to happen? I'm not entirely sure! The result of this one is a coin flip if that coin had three sides because I think any of the three possible outcomes is just as likely. I find the most value in Both Teams To Score because I don't see either side pulling off a shutout too often. Napoli's attack has been potent all season long. While their defending has been terrific lately (even more impressive when you remember Kalidou Koulibaly was away at AFCON), the schedule has been friendly. Against top-half teams in Italy, it hasn't been as sound. Inter has experienced similar results on the back end, shutting down teams it should but struggling against more potent attacks.

Key Trend: Napoli has scored at least once in six straight matches while Inter has scored at least once in nine of its last 10.

Newcastle United vs. Aston Villa, Sunday, 9 a.m. | TV: Peacock
The Pick: Over 2.5 (-120) -- Two of the Premier League's most active teams in the January transfer window clash this weekend, and I'm expecting a goalfest. While Stephen Gerrard has undoubtedly improved Aston Villa's overall results since he replaced Dean Smith, Villa continue to have problems defensively. They're transitioning from a team that attacked on the counter to one trying to control matches with possession and too frequently lose their shape in defense. Plus, center-back Ezri Konsa picked up a needless red card late in Aston Villa's 3-3 draw against Leeds United, and he'll be forced to sit this match out because of it, leaving a shaky Villa defense without its most consistent defender. So it's a good thing Phillipe Coutinho has been everything Villa could have asked for since taking him on loan from Barcelona, as he's sparked the Villa attack and made the team much more dangerous.

Then there's Newcastle, which has had a horrid defense all year, and did its best to address that in January by adding Kieran Trippier from Atlético Madrid and Matt Targett from Aston Villa! It's too early to tell how that will work out, but Newcastle's attack has improved thanks to some key additions, and I can see this match turning into the same kind of back-and-forth, wide-open affair that Villa had with Leeds earlier in the week. The goals will be scored.

Key Trend: There have been at least three goals scored in seven of 11 Aston Villa Premier League matches since Steven Gerrard took over.

Atalanta vs. Juventus, Sunday, 2:45 p.m. | TV: Paramount+
The Pick: Juventus (+150) -- The perfect Super Bowl appetizer, as this match will end shortly before the game begins. Juventus passed Atalanta in the Serie A table last week to move into fourth place, and I don't think Juve will give it back. Though I suppose the more accurate portrayal of the situation is that I don't know if Atalanta is equipped to take it back. Atalanta's leading scorer Duvan Zapata returned last week to play for the first time since Dec. 21, but it was as a sub in a 2-1 loss to Cagliari that messed up our Weekend Parlay (those darn players!). He didn't look in top form, played for about 15 minutes, and asked to be removed from the match. There's a real chance he'll be out this weekend and possibly much longer, which is a considerable blow to Atalanta. In the five matches Atalanta played without Zapata, it won only twice, and those wins were against Udinese (14th place) and Venezia (18th).

Meanwhile, Juventus has looked like a freight train since getting Dusan Vlahovic from Fiorentina. Vlahovic is exactly what Juventus had been missing all season (and really, the last couple of seasons). While he's not prime Cristiano Ronaldo, Dusan is a better version of the Ronaldo Juventus had the last few seasons. He gives the team a goal threat and the ability to make something happen from nothing that it sorely lacked, and the results are already evident.

Key Trend: Juventus has won 10 of its last 14 matches.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: All of SportsLine's top NFL experts have shared their favorite prop bets for Super Bowl 56.

🏀 Friday Night Parlay

I can't send you into the evening without something to bet tonight, so let's get creative. Here's a four-leg parlay across both the NBA and college slate tonight. It pays +101.