The final week of the 2023 NFL regular season begins with an important AFC North showdown, as the Baltimore Ravens play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens have already clinched the division, along with the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which comes with the first-round bye and home-field advantage. As for the Steelers, they are fighting for a wild card spot.
This week, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh announced that star quarterback and likely 2023 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson would not start in the regular-season finale. On Thursday, the team's injury report listed five other starters who are ruled out: wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., guard Kevin Zeitler, cornerback Marlon Humphrey (groin), linebacker Malik Harrison (groin), and defensive back Daryl Worley (shoulder/ankle). As for how Baltimore handles the rest of its starters, we'll just have to see. Below, we will break down this matchup and all the playoff implications that come with it, but first, here's how to watch this divisional showdown.
How to watch
Date: Saturday, Jan. 6 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
TV: ABC/ESPN | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Steelers -4, O/U 35.5 (Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus)
Playoff implications
The Ravens have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC, while the Steelers need some help to make the playoffs. It's possible Pittsburgh could make the postseason with a loss on Saturday, but it would be tough. Here's what you need to know:
Steelers clinch playoff berth with:
- PIT win + BUF loss OR
- PIT win + JAX loss or tie OR
- PIT win + HOU-IND tie OR
- PIT tie + JAX loss + HOU-IND doesn't end in tie OR
- JAX loss + DEN win + HOU-IND doesn't end in tie
How the Ravens play this game is a major storyline. This season is very reminiscent of the 2019 campaign, in which the Ravens won 14 games and Jackson won MVP. In the regular-season finale, which also came against the Steelers in Baltimore, the Ravens rested their starters, yet still won 28-10. However, the Ravens were upset by that year's postseason Cinderella in the Tennessee Titans. Could have sitting Jackson and some of the other starters in that regular-season finale led to an early postseason exit? That's something coach Harbaugh will have to think about.
Preview
The Steelers are 6-1 in their last seven games vs. the Ravens, and all seven games have been decided by one score. However, Jackson started in just three of those seven contests. These two teams met in Pittsburgh back in Week 5, when George Pickens caught a game-winning touchdown with 1:14 left. In fact, the last two matchups between the Steelers and Ravens featured a Kenny Pickett game-winning passing touchdown. This week, he's not starting, as Mike Tomlin is riding the hot hand with Mason Rudolph.
Pickett's ankle injury and the poor play of Mitch Trubisky opened the door for Rudolph to step into the starting lineup, and he has not disappointed. In two starts, Rudolph has completed 68.6% of his passes for 564 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Steelers are 2-0, and have scored at least 30 points in both victories. Pittsburgh had zero such victories this season until Rudolph stepped in. Last week against the Seattle Seahawks, the Steelers racked up 468 yards of total offense, which are the most for Pittsburgh since Week 12 in 2018.
Rudolph has a 7-4-1 career record as starter, but Saturday will be his toughest test yet this season. While we don't know who will be playing on the Ravens defense this weekend, it doesn't take away from the fact that this unit leads the league in scoring defense, sacks and takeaways this season. No team in NFL history has ever done that over a full season.
Offensively for the Ravens, let's talk about the quarterback who will start: Tyler Huntley. The Utah product is 3-5 as a starter for Baltimore and 1-2 vs. Pittsburgh, but was named to the Pro Bowl as an alternate last year after completing 67% of his passes for 658 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. He kept the Ravens afloat and made the playoffs while Jackson was out due to injury.
Huntley will have to keep an eye out for T.J. Watt, who is having a monster season, and has the ability to be the difference-maker in this game. Watt is tied for the NFL lead with 17 sacks, meaning he's recorded 15 or more sacks in three seasons now, which is tied for the third-most in NFL history. Only his brother, JJ Watt, and Reggie White have had more. Watt has recorded four strip sacks this season, which is tied for second-most in the NFL, and has recorded 34 QB hits, which ranks second behind Nick Bosa's 35.
One final note to address: Referee Brad Allen has been assigned to this game. He was the leader of the crew that became a point of national discussion when they appeared to botch several calls during the Detroit Lions' controversial loss to the Dallas Cowboys last Saturday night. Officiating will be something fans and league decision-makers alike will be paying attention to.
Gambling notes
PIT: 9-7 ATS, Under is 10-6
BAL: 11-5 ATS, Total is 8-8
- Steelers: 3-0 SU & ATS in last 3 games AT Ravens
- Steelers: Over hit in 4 straight games after under hit in 9 of prev 10
- Mason Rudolph: 9-3 ATS in career as starter (4-1 ATS on road)
- Ravens: 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS in last 6 games
- Ravens: 16-2 ATS in last 18 games as underdog
Prediction
The Steelers care much more about this game since their playoff hopes virtually depend on it. While Rudolph has been solid, it's also worth mentioning that Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren had big outings last week in Seattle, as Pittsburgh rushed for 202 total yards. I'll take the Steelers to win this game, but I like taking the Ravens +4 more. Expect a close one. Pittsburgh by a field goal.
Score: Steelers 23-20 over Ravens (+4)
