The defending AFC champion New England Patriots take on the new-look Washington Redskins on Thursday. Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. from Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 4.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas expects to be scored, is 37. Before you lock in your Redskins vs. Patriots picks, you have to see what SportsLine stat geek R.J. White has to say.

White knows what it takes to win on football's biggest stage. He finished in the top 1 percent of the Las Vegas SuperContest last season after also cashing huge in 2015. That's right -- he has crushed the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament twice in the last three years.

If you had placed $100 on each of White's NFL point-spread picks last season, you would have won nearly $2,000. Smart bettors tail him.

We can tell you White is leaning Over 37 points for Patriots vs. Redskins, telling SportsLine, "The Pats have been involved in some high-scoring preseason openers the last few years, and last year, all four of their preseason games topped 50 points, so I'll lean Over on the total." White's stronger play is on the spread, which is available at SportsLine.

White knows you can expect plenty of pressure on Jay Gruden, who begins his fifth year as Redskins head coach. With only one playoff appearance in his first four seasons, it's imperative that he get off to a strong start. Washington opened up its 2017 preseason schedule with a thud, losing to the Baltimore Ravens 23-3, a game in which they mustered 138 yards of offense and only eight first downs.

The Patriots' amazing run of postseason success is no guarantee they will cover the 4.5-point spread. Coach Bill Belichick lost defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and must improve a defense that finished 29th in yards allowed per game last season with 366.

And the Patriots have plenty of question marks at receiver. During the offseason, they brought in Cordarrelle Patterson and dealt for Kenny Britt in December. Jordan Matthews, formerly of the Eagles and Bills, was released after suffering a hamstring injury. They then brought in nine-year vet Eric Decker to help fill the gap while Julian Edelman serves a four-game suspension.

White has evaluated each roster from top to bottom and has unearthed a critical stat that determines which side you should be all over. He's sharing what it is, and who to back, only at SportsLine.

So which side of the spread should you back for Washington vs. New England on Thursday and which critical stat determines this showdown? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, from the expert who keeps crushing the Las Vegas SuperContest, and find out.