The Lions are so ready to party like it's 1991. That team finished 12-4 in the regular season before ultimately falling to the Redskins in the NFC title game. What else happened that year, you ask?
It's the last time Detroit swept the Green Bay Packers.
After an impressive, stunning victory at Lambeau Field in Week 10 that ended a 24-game losing streak in the state of Wisconsin, the surging Lions (4-7) suddenly look like the playoff contenders, while Mike McCarthy's team has lost four of its last five.
Here are five advanced stats you absolutely need to know for this NFC North clash.
1. What's up with Aaron Rodgers?
We know Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' aerial attack has struggled this season and over the last month, Rodgers has experienced some abnormal issues as a passer (and we'll get to those). Why has all of this happened?
There are a multitude of reasons why Green Bay's offense hasn't clicked in 2015 like it has for almost all of the Rodgers era. But take a look at one distinct difference in the perennial All-Pro's game this season compared to his campaigns since 2011. We're looking specifically at his time in the pocket, which includes average time to throw a pass, get sacked, or scramble past the line of scrimmage.
And Rodgers is spending more time in the pocket -- holding the ball.
| What's the hold up? | |
| Aaron Rodgers | Average time in pocket |
| 2015 | 2.96 |
| 2014 | 2.86 |
| 2013 | 2.67 |
| 2012 | 2.88 |
| 2011 | 2.86 |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | |
Rodgers is certainly proficient in quickly scanning through his progressions to find the open receiver. That's important. But routinely holding onto the football longer than he has in a long time is a testament to the Packers receivers often not getting much separation and could even speak to Rodgers being worried with the pass-rush more than seeing the entire field.
2. Ziggy Ansah's emergence
When the Lions selected Ezekiel Ansah with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2013 draft, the BYU product had only played football since 2010.
Quite the rise to prominence. Now in his third year in the NFL, the Ghanaian-born physical specimen has become of the finest and most underrated pass-rushers in football.
Here's where Ziggy Ansah ranks among 4-3 defense ends in Pro Football Focus' Pass Rush Productivity, a metric that measures the efficiency of defenders getting to the quarterback.
| Zig-zagging to the quarterback | |||
| Rank | Player | Pass rush productivity | |
| T-1 | Ziggy Ansah | 13.3 | |
| T-1 | Jabaal Sheard | 13.3 | |
| 3 | Cliff Avril | 12.7 | |
| 4 | Michael Bennett | 12.1 | |
| 5 | Mario Addison | 11.5 | |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | |||
For perspective, 3-4 defensive end J.J. Watt's PRP is 12.7. To get his 13.3 PRP, Ansah accumulated 43 quarterback pressures -- sack, hit or hurry -- on just 266 pass-rush snaps.
As an edge-rusher who predominantly lines up on the right side, Ansah will see a lot of Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari, who has allowed 31 quarterback pressures on 424 pass-blocking snaps this season.
3. Career first for Matthew Stafford
The Lions haven't won three games in a row by accident. And, no, the out-of-nowhere winning streak hasn't solely been because of Matthew Stafford. However, the ultra-talented yet inconsistent quarterback is on an unprecedented streak of his own.
For the first time in his 88-game NFL career, Stafford has had three-straight outings with a completion percentage in each contest above 62 percent and at least a combined 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
| Stafford's three-game run | |||
| Matthew Stafford | Comp % | TDs | INTs |
| vs. Packers | 63.1 | 2 | 1 |
| vs. Raiders | 62.8 | 0 | 0 |
| vs. Eagles | 71 | 5 | 0 |
Thanks to his five-touchdown masterpiece against the Eagles on Thanksgiving, Stafford's TD-to-INT ratio is actually 7:1 over the last three games.
In short, we've never seen Stafford play as efficiently as he has over the past three games.
4. Linebacker run-stopping comparison
The NFL's a passing league. We're all aware. But that doesn't mean the ground game is unimportant. With the weather turning (and not especially conducive to always throwing the football), this is the portion of the season when teams love to rely on their rushing attacks.
Therefore, being able to stop the easiest play for an offense to execute -- the handoff -- is paramount, even in a game like this with gun-slinging quarterbacks.
Take a look at how the Lions' and Packers' linebackers have fared against the run this season.
| Lions against the run | |
| Player | Run-stopping grade (rank) |
| Stephen Tulloch (ILB) | 8 (6th) |
| Josh Bynes (OLB) | 6.9 (2nd) |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | |
And we all thought Detroit losing All-Pro weakside linebacker DeAndre Levy would doom the entire linebacker group and the club's run defense.
Nope.
Tulloch and Bynes have been tremendous when asked to shut down the run, and they're the main reasons why the teams haven't been able to gash the Lions on the ground, even after the departure of Ndamukong Suh.
The Packers, well, they don't have such a strong linebacker duo.
| Packers against the run | |
| Player | Run-stopping grade (rank) |
| Clay Matthews (ILB) | 4.2 (10th) |
| Nate Palmer (ILB) | -10.5 (50th) |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | |
Actually, hats off to Clay Matthews, who has been a terrorizing edge-rusher for years and made a super-quick transition to the inside linebacker spot.
But on Thursday night, look for the Lions to exploit Palmer as much as possible.
5. Lacy better than ever?
Yes, Eddie Lacy has had a roller-coaster season that's frustrated his fantasy owners. But recently, he's run harder than ever before.
No, seriously.
The past two contests mark the first time in Lacy's 41-game career that he's averaged 3.2 yards after contact per rush or more in consecutive outings.
| Lacy after contact | |||
| Eddie Lacy | Yards/carry | Yards after contact/rush | |
| Win vs. Vikings | 4.5 | 3.4 | |
| Loss vs. Bears | 6.2 | 3.6 | |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | |||
In Week 3 against the Chiefs and Week 4 versus the 49ers, Lacy had two-straight games averaging 3 yards or more in after-contact-per-rush, but he'd never topped 3.2 in back-to-back contests.
While everyone will rightfully see if Rodgers can get back on track, don't forget to pay attention to Lacy.
Prediction: Packers 24, Lions 17
The Lions come into this game on a roll no one saw coming, and the Packers have been one of the tougher teams to figure out this season.
But I can't envision Rodgers and Co. playing inconsistent football for much longer, and I don't know if Stafford can piece together a fourth-straight majorly efficient outing.
In a back-and-forth battle that'll feature its fair share of turnovers and big plays, I think Green Bay makes one more critical play late to get an enormous road win in the division.
