The Denver Nuggets will try to claim their first NBA title when they host the Miami Heat in Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals on Monday night. Denver took control of the series with a pair of road wins last week, including a 108-95 victory on Friday night. Miami is trying to keep its remarkable playoff run alive, but it will need its second road win of the series as a heavy underdog.

Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Nuggets as 8-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 210 in the latest Nuggets vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Nuggets picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the 2023 NBA Finals a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -8
  • Heat vs. Nuggets over/under: 210 points
  • Heat vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -345, Heat +270
  • MIA: The Heat are 23-28-1 against the spread in road games
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 31-19-1 against the spread in home games
  • Heat vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat

Why the Heat can cover

Miami was able to get a win the last time these two teams met at Ball Arena. The Heat won Game 2 in impressive fashion behind a second-half onslaught, and Miami is 7-5 on the road with a positive point differential in these playoffs. The Heat averaged 27.0 assists and only 7.5 turnovers per game in the first two games of the series, putting constant pressure on Denver's defense with the threat of 40.5% shooting from beyond the 3-point arc. 

Miami's defense provides an impressive baseline for the team's overall success, ranking in the top 10 of the league during the regular season and maintaining that level in the playoffs. The team's offense has reached new heights, averaging 114.8 points per 100 possessions. Miami leads the postseason with 38.6% 3-point shooting, and the Heat average more than twice as many assists as turnovers. Jimmy Butler is a tremendous force for Miami, averaging 27.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game in the playoffs, and Bam Adebayo has been highly productive in the series, putting up 22.3 points and 12.5 rebounds per contest. See which team to pick here.

Why the Nuggets can cover

Miami has gone cold from the perimeter over the last two games, shooting a combined 19-of-60 (31.6%) from 3-point range in those outings. Gabe Vincent led the team with 23 points and four triples in Game 2, but he has scored just nine points in the last two games. The Heat are going to have trouble turning things around on the road, especially with Denver in reach of its first NBA title.

The Nuggets have held Miami to 95 points or less in all three of their wins in the series after the Heat averaged more than 109 points per game against Boston in the Eastern Conference finals. Nikola Jokic has dominated the Heat, averaging nearly 31 points per game to put himself in line for the NBA Finals MVP. Denver has won 11 of its last 12 home games and has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games against the Heat. See which team to pick here.

How to make Nuggets vs. Heat picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, with 10 players projected to score in double-digits. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.