Thursday marks two weeks since Opening Day and every team has played at least 10 games with most around a dozen. Given that we've only seen 6.2% to 9.3% of the season, depending on the team, there really shouldn't be many, if any, fan bases pressing the proverbial panic button.
Still, it happens. It's a daily sport, so watching your team lose multiple times a week can have that effect and there's a certain bit of NFLization (every game counts!) to our sports world at this point. Plus, as I've mentioned before, "fan" is short for "fanatic." A fanatic, by dictionary definition, is a "person filled with excessive and single-minded zeal."
Of course, those of us like that will overreact in a moment, even if we know it's only one game out of 162. That's part of the fun, frankly.
As with any season, a handful of teams have gotten off to pretty disappointing starts. This means we can break out the ol' Panic Meter.
The panic meter is scaled 0-10 with 0 being not a care in the world and 10 being mass hysteria. The 0-4 side is building concern while the 6-10 side is worry building toward panic. A 5 would be the center point between "decent concern" and "slight worry."
Houston Astros
Record: 4-9
The Astros started 0-4 at home, continuing a disturbing trend from last season that cost them another trip to the World Series. They ended up that homestand taking two of three from the Blue Jays, but 2-5 just won't cut it in Minute Maid Park. They split a four-gamer in Texas, which isn't horrible, but now they've dropped two in Kansas City. After that series finale, they'll return home to deal with the Rangers and Braves. This really could start spiraling, right?
Panic Meter: 1
The Astros were 3-6 last year and then 8-10 and ended up in the ALCS. In 2022, they started 6-8, 7-9 and even 11-11 before going on to win 106 regular-season games and the World Series. In 2021, they started 6-1! But then lost nine of their next 10 games and were sitting 7-10. They won the AL pennant.
This is such small potatoes for them. In all likelihood, the talent will prevail and it'll start doing so very soon.
Minnesota Twins
Record: 4-6
A bit of a weird schedule, along with the weather, have conspired to keep the Twins to just 10 games played in two weeks. Maybe that helped them with the way they played for a stretch. Between their 2-0 start and Wednesday win, they went 1-6.
The problem has been the offense. It's been atrocious. They are averaging 2.9 runs per game while hitting .184/.285/.325 as a team. The relatively few times they've gotten runners into scoring position, they've slashed .116/.218/.198.
Sure, it's only 10 games, but they've already dug themselves a four-game hole in what everyone considered the weakest division in baseball heading into the year.
Panic Meter: 1
It's alarming to be four games back already, I'm sure, and fans who were excited heading into the season were surely very disappointed to see them drop six of seven. But. Ten games! 10! They aren't even 3-7 or 2-8 or 1-9 or, yep, 0-10. A 4-6 record in a 10-game stretch at most points in the season is much ado about nothing for nearly any team. That's especially the case in a division where the White Sox are brutal, the Tigers have already come back to Earth and the Guardians and Royals are likely to follow.
Seattle Mariners
Record: 5-8
The season-opening homestand against the Red Sox (who were picked to finish last in the AL East by basically everyone) and Guardians (who were expected to be mediocre) resulted in a 3-4 record. The Mariners followed that up with a 2-4 road trip. They are consistent, at least, having gone 0-3-1 in the series so far. They've now dropped six of eight.
Maybe we need to bring back "fun differential" because the run differential suggests they are worse than they've played at -21 (to be clear, it's far too early to judge on run differential; I'm just pointing out all the negative aspects to which a panic-stricken fan might point).
Like the Twins, the Mariners' problems stem from the bats. They are hitting .207/.278/.324 and lead the league in strikeouts.
Of course, they haven't pitched a ton better, as their 4.84 ERA ranks 12th among 15 AL teams.
Panic Meter: 3
I might've put this a little higher, but they are 5-8 and teams can easily recover from three games under .500. If they were something like 3-10 it would probably be a lot more worrisome even in this tiny sample. I'm not even remotely worried about pitchers Luis Castillo and George Kirby and things will trickle down from there on the mound. The personnel on offense is probably worth a little concern, except Julio Rodríguez. He'll eventually catch fire and end up a top-five MVP finisher. But the rest of the group, it could be argued, just isn't going to be good enough to make the playoffs.
We'll see. It's only 13 games and, again, 5-8 isn't horrifying or anything. It's more how they've looked than the record. Still, take note of how low on the Panic Meter I've placed them.
San Francisco Giants
Record: 5-8
They looked pretty exciting through three games, sitting with a 2-1 record and coming off 17 runs combined in their two wins. They then went through a stretch where they lost seven of nine games and averaged fewer than three runs per game. They lost a series at home against the Nationals. Maybe the 7-1 win Wednesday gets them back on track, and it bears repeating: this has only been 13 games (8% of the season). If a contending team went 5-8 out of 13 games in the middle of the season, we'd barely blink an eye, right?
I think there were legitimate concerns heading into the season that this was basically a mediocre team that looked to throw bandages on a broken leg late in the spring with the Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler and Blake Snell signings.
We're looking at an offense averaging 4.07 runs per game, but that figure is heavily skewed by three of the wins and they've only averaged 2.9 runs per game in the remaining 10. Being a boom-or-bust offense isn't a good way to win consistently and their rate stats (.237/.304/.354) illustrate as much.
The 5.06 staff ERA ranks 14th in the NL, too.
Panic Meter: 3
There are reasons to believe this ballclub is in perfectly fine shape. I know we can't dismiss any series and it might hurt Giants fans to feel so inferior to the Dodgers, but three of their losses came to the mighty Dodgers. They are 5-5 otherwise. In and of itself, that paints a perfectly adequate picture.
Further, truncated spring training could be hampering Soler and Chapman at the plate. Snell just made his first start and wasn't himself, either. They'll get Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray by the end of the year to add to the rotation.
Basically, there are reasons to believe this team was going to finish much stronger than it started and nothing has changed on that front.
I'm just not sure it'll be enough. We'll see. There's still 92% of the season to go.
Miami Marlins
Record: 2-11
A playoff team last year that was considered a bit fraudulent by a good number of people, the Marlins entered the season with a pretty great starting rotation ... on the injured list.
Even if you think they are better than this, the question is how much better? Let's say you had them as an 88-win team heading into the season. I think many people would say that was overly optimistic. If they played like an 88-win team the rest of the way, they'd still finish 82-80.
Do you think this team can play like an 88-win team the rest of the season? And if they do, is 82-80 good enough to return to the playoffs?
Panic Meter: 8
Yeah, they suck. It's a lost season.
