With extension season having slowed down, the 2019-20 offseason has not lost any players to long-term contracts in a few weeks now. That's good news for the hot stove season. An offseason with no significant free agent would be pretty darn boring if you ask me.
Throughout the season we're going to keep tabs on the 2019-20 free-agent class with weekly stock watch posts, and on the first Thursday of every month we'll update our top free-agent rankings as well. Here is this week's stock watch.
Stock Up
Royals stalwart Alex Gordon is in an interesting position going into free agency. His stock is up because he made some mechanical adjustments late last year and hasn't stopped hitting since. He also told Rustin Dodd of The Athletic that he might retire following the season. World Series ring, franchise icon, over $100 million in career earnings. Pretty great career should Gordon decide to hang up his spikes.
Gordon swatted home runs in back-to-back games earlier this week and he's currently sitting on a .311/.396/.578 batting line. He hit .273/.343/.445 in his final 33 games last year after hitting .225/.310/.355 in over 1,600 plate appearances from 2016 through July 2018. The Royals won the 2015 World Series, signed Gordon to a pricey four-year contract, and his performance immediately went in the tank. Now he's hitting like pre-2016 Gordon again.
As he explained to Dodd, Gordon credits his resurgence to a mechanical adjustment at the plate. Specifically, he is standing more upright, which gets him into a better position to hit and eliminates wasted movement. Everything is simplified now. Here are the before and after photos:
Gordon has seen considerable improvements in his exit velocity and hard-hit rate since making the mechanical adjustment, which in turn has led to better results. Sure, his success early this season could be small sample size noise. That is always possible in April. Then again, the mechanical adjustment gives a tangible reason to believe in the improvement. If nothing else, this is something worth monitoring going forward.
At age 35 (36 on Opening Day 2020), Gordon has basically no chance at a multiyear contract next offseason, assuming he even wants to continue playing. A one-year deal in the Brett Gardner ($7.5 million) or Nick Markakis range ($6 million) is likely his contract upside, even if his current performance holds. The downside is Adam Jones money ($3 million) or even a minor-league contract. I suspect Gordon would retire before taking a minor-league deal.
Let's start with the elephant in the room: It is impossible to believe Marcell Ozuna won a Gold Glove two years ago. Won it and deserved it! His defense has deteriorated in his two seasons with the Cardinals. It's not just the dopey mistakes like his ill-timed wall climb two weeks ago. Ozuna's range has slipped and routine plays have become anything but.
That all said, Ozuna will play all of next season at age 29, and he's shown early this year that he's over his offseason shoulder surgery, and driving the ball with authority. He has nine home runs in 22 games -- he hit his ninth home run in his 63rd game last year -- and there's been a big uptick in his hard contact rate and a big downturn in ground ball rate. Look:
Hit the ball hard in the air and good things happen. The season is still young, no doubt, though batted ball data tends to stabilize fairly quickly, plus we're talking about a player coming back from offseason surgery. Sometimes it can take a few weeks (or months) to get back to normal after surgery, especially a shoulder surgery. Ozuna's strong contact quality soon after shoulder surgery is very encouraging.
The hottest hitter on the planet strikes again! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/39m9hL54cO
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) April 24, 2019
Even with his defense slipping so much, Ozuna has two things going for him as he heads into free agency: His age and his ability to hit the snot out of the baseball. Ozuna is right smack in the prime of his career and he's shown he can be an All-Star caliber hitter at various points in his career. Even in this market, teams will line up to take a chance on Ozuna's prime, especially with his shoulder looking healthy.
In a "normal" free-agent market, I think the current version of Ozuna would've had a case for a contract on par with Josh Reddick's (four years, $52 million) or A.J. Pollock's (four years, $55 million). In this market, Marwin Gonzalez money (two years, $21 million) might be more appropriate, or even a higher salary one-year deal. There is serious upside potential here.
Stock Down
Goodness, where did it all go wrong for Shelby Miller? Despite leading the league with 17 losses in 2015, he was an All-Star with the Braves, and he finished that season with a 3.02 ERA in 205 1/3 innings. A 24-year-old former tippy top prospect with those numbers? Miller looked to be on the cusp of stardom.
Instead, the Braves traded Miller to the Diamondbacks after that season, and he completely fell apart. He allowed 72 runs in 101 innings in 2016 and couldn't throw strikes, and eventually needed Tommy John surgery. Arizona non-tendered Miller this past offseason and he finished his D-Backs career with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in 139 innings. Brutal. Absolutely brutal.
The Rangers rolled the dice this past offseason and gave Miller a one-year "prove yourself" contract worth $2 million. The results so far: 14 runs in 15 1/3 innings with a ghastly 6/13 K/BB. Those numbers aren't wrong. Six strikeouts and 13 walks in 15 1/3 innings. Miller can't throw strikes, and when he does throw the ball over the plate, it gets hammered. Some Statcast numbers:
- Expected batting average: .308 (8th percentile)
- Expected slugging percentage: .500 (18th percentile)
- Expected weighted on-base average: .426 (4th percentile)
Miller's velocity and spin rate numbers are fine. Not great, not terrible. They're fine. There is more to life than velocity and spin rate though. Command matters, and Miller doesn't have it, and deception matters too. It doesn't seem Miller has that either. To use an old baseball idiom, Miller is good hittin' right now. Hitters are comfortable in the box and ready to do damage.
The good news is Miller is still only 28 and he's not that far removed from being a top prospect. Even at this pace, I still think he'll draw interest as a free agent after the season. It'll be interest on a minor-league contract, for sure, but still interest. Point is, this one-year deal with Texas was a chance to rebuild stock and lay the groundwork for a better payday after the season. It is not working out at all right now.
Injuries have dogged the supremely talented Arodys Vizcaino throughout his career and his 2019 season is already over. Vizcaino was placed on the injured list April 14, then, three days later, the Braves announced he would undergo season-ending shoulder surgery.
Here is he team's surgery announcement:
Atlanta Braves RHP Arodys Vizcaíno elected to undergo right shoulder surgery today in New York, NY. Dr. David Altchek performed the procedure. Dr. Altchek cleaned up Vizcaíno's labrum, while also removing scar tissue from the right shoulder joint. The right-hander is expected to miss the rest of the regular season.
When healthy, the 28-year-old Vizcaino has been excellent. He joined Atlanta in the Tommy La Stella trade with the Cubs back in November 2014, and in parts of five seasons with the Braves he pitched to 2.95 ERA with a 10.1 K/9. Vizcaino is a bona fide shutdown reliever with closer chops.
The problem is Vizcaino only threw 189 1/3 innings in those five seasons with the Braves. His laundry list of injuries includes:
- Tommy John surgery in 2012.
- Oblique strain and shoulder inflammation in 2016.
- Finger sprain in 2017.
- Shoulder inflammation in 2018.
Vizcaino's elbow and shoulder have both been cut open now, though, to be fair, the Tommy John surgery was a long time ago and he hasn't had any elbow problems since. The shoulder has been a nagging issue though, and shoulders are not nearly as easy to fix as elbows.
The market for high-end yet injured relievers is not great right now. Even established late-inning guys like Trevor Rosenthal and Greg Holland spent a full season unsigned while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The days of signing an injured reliever and paying him to rehab seem over. Teams just wait the year to sign him.
Vizcaino had his surgery early enough this year that he could be ready for spring training next year, or at least be ready sometime early next season. A low base salary one-year contract or even a minor-league contract is in is future now. The 2020 season will be a "show you're healthy" year for Vizcaino, who would then try to cash in the following winter.
